Sponsored By:
Today’s Summary
Thursday, August 13th, 2020
Indices: US Stocks were mostly lower in today’s session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 80 points or 0.29%. The S&P 500 fell 0.20%, while the Nasdaq managed to close higher by 0.27%. The Russell 2000 moved lower by 0.22%.
Sectors: 9 of the 11 sectors closed lower. Communications led, rising 0.50%. Energy lagged, falling 1.94%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures moved lower by 1.01% to $42.24 per barrel. Gold futures rose 1.93% to $1,963 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index slipped 0.20%.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield moved higher to 0.725%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Today marks 100 trading days since the March 23 lows.
This is officially the largest 100 day rally ever for the S&P 500 Index, up more than 50%.
Looking at the previous best 100-day rallies ever shows the S&P 500 has gained 12 months later 17 of 18 times ('87 didn't work). pic.twitter.com/7XuSstgUeA
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) August 13, 2020
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Ryan Detrick (@RyanDetrick). He points out that today marks the 100th trading day since the March 23rd low. The S&P 500 has surged more than 50% in that time, making this the largest 100-day rally in the history of the index. It’s easy to say the market has gone too far too fast, however, the data suggests otherwise. On average, the forward returns following the largest 100-day gains have been positive across all time frames measured. One year later, the index was higher 17 out of 18 times for an average gain of 9.4%. History shows us that further gains are not only possible but probable.
Quote of the Day
“The first rule is to keep an untroubled spirit. The second is to look things in the face and know them for what they are.”
– Marcus Aurelius
Top Links
The Strangest Top 25 List in Some Time – Bespoke
Bespoke takes a look at the top 25 best and worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500 over the past week. They emphasize the lack of Tech leadership.
What The FICC? August 13, 2020: Natural Gas – All Star Charts
In this week’s episode of What the FICC? Tom Bruni focuses on the breakout in Natural Gas.
Breadth and Sentiment – Rotation Report
Aaron Jackson weighs-in on market internals and shares a few individual chart setups.
These 8 Leaders Are Setting Up New Buy – Investors Business Daily
In this podcast, Mark Minervini discusses the current market environment and his process for picking stocks.
Cisco Shares Fall, ‘But for Every Cisco, You Have a Semiconductor Stock That’s Breaking Out to The Upside’ – Yahoo Finance
Ari Wald of Oppenheimer shares his technical perspective on the S&P 500.
Top Tweets
The grind up with scary dips continues – hard to hold longs and start new ones here – (my transparent feelings) but deep dips still bringing buyers so I will stick to the quickly in and quickly out approach until my charts look better $ES_F pic.twitter.com/sloU3H8kco
— Anne-Marie Baiynd, TheTradingBook.com (@AnneMarieTrades) August 13, 2020
I'm sure there are folks out there still fighting this rally, but they apparently are not members of the National Association of Active Investment Managers. Equity exposure above 100% long. pic.twitter.com/YK7XPJyEVe
— Michael Santoli (@michaelsantoli) August 13, 2020
Meanwhile NAAIM (active investors) is now +100, i.e., leveraged long, for only the 8th time in its short history. 2 winners and 5 eventual losers but a very small sample size $spx pic.twitter.com/nCAcHiJGpv
— ukarlewitz (@ukarlewitz) August 13, 2020
Upward march: Case in point on market leadership, the Russell 2000 index not only held its trend-line just in time but is now accelerating higher. This is what you want to see if you are an early-cycle bull. #smallcaps #stocks #investing #markets pic.twitter.com/vEEPpejPNQ
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) August 13, 2020
The S&P 500 $SPY outperforming Defensive (or "Bond-Proxy) Sectors $XLP $XLU $XLRE is generally bullish for equities pic.twitter.com/L8rdcpOg7t
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) August 13, 2020
I'm not a big cup-n-handle guy but this looks like a tape worth paying attention to.
Also, it doesn't hurt that Japan is leading the fiscal charge w/ stimulus measures = roughly 40% of GDP to date another massive round expected in the Fall.
I'm long. pic.twitter.com/miH6JsxX8Y
— Alex Barrow (@MacroOps) August 13, 2020
$TLT pic.twitter.com/uRimHO0HA7
— Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) August 13, 2020
From a tactical perspective gold bouncing off 38.2% retracement level. Could see downside to 172 which is next Fibonacci support as well as consolidation range in early July. Either way, the long-term trend remains constructive. $GLD $GOLD pic.twitter.com/HgFkLT694p
— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) August 13, 2020
CBOE #Gold Volatility index. 11 year weekly chart.
More volatility coming?$GLD #GC_F $GDX $GDXJ pic.twitter.com/hVFZRbPHpE
— Tarek I. Saab (@FibLines) August 12, 2020
Worse than I thought. pic.twitter.com/E7OfoaF5YS
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT? (@FusionptCapital) August 12, 2020