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Todayโs Summary
Monday, August 14, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq 100 +1.18% | S&P 500 +0.57% | Dow +0.07% | Russell 2000 -0.24%
Sectors: 6 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Tech led, gaining +1.59%. Utilities lagged, falling -0.79%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -0.82% to $82.51 per barrel. Gold futures inched lower by -0.13% to $1,944 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.31% to $103.17.
Crypto: Bitcoin gained +0.41% to $29,404. Ethereum inched higher by +0.22% to $1,843.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a nine-month high of 4.197%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Continue to think of the Ten Year Treasury Yield $TNX as one of the most important (if not the most important) charts of 2023. Still very much a rising rate environment which does not usually bode well for growth stocks. Higher highs and higher lows = uptrend. pic.twitter.com/gch8nHYCmC
— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) August 14, 2023
Todayโs Chart of the Day was shared by David Keller (@DKellerCMT). The 10-year US Treasury yield ($TNX) settled at a nine-month high today and is on the verge of breaking out to a 15-year high. Since 2008, there have only been three other days in which the 10-year yield closed higher than it did today. It peaked last October, around the same time the S&P 500 bottomed, and Itโs been basing atop the 2018 highs ever since. As David points out, if the 10-year yield resumes its uptrend, it will likely put pressure on growth stocks, tech stocks, and other long-duration assets. That being said, the tech sector led by a decent margin today, despite this ominous move in the 10-year yield.
Quote of the Day
โI always say that you could publish trading rules in the newspaper, and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline.โ
-Richard Dennis
Trendlines over Headlines
The latest episode of Trendlines > Headlines is out!
This week, JC OโHara joins us to make sense of the markets. JC is a technical strategist at Roth MKM. In the episode, we look at several noteworthy charts and discuss:
- The S&P 500
- Sentiment
- Weakness in Tech Stocks
- Strength in Energy Stocks
- Commodities, and more!
Top Links
What Buying the Dip Would Mean Now โ CappThesis
Frank Cappelleri highlights several key charts to pay attention to this week.
Itโs a Growth Problem โ Grindstone Intelligence
Austin Harrison examines the outlook for growth and value.
Metal Trend Testing โ Bespoke
Bespoke looks at what could be next for gold, silver, and copper.
August Monthly Option Expiration Week: DJIA Down 13 of Last 18 โ Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch looks at how the major indices have historically fared during August options expiration week.
The Morning Show โ Stock Market TV
Tune into The Morning Show tomorrow at 8 am EST as we break down the noteworthy trends and themes across the markets.
Top Tweets
Big final-hour ramp $QQQ pic.twitter.com/jxOjS6mdE6
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT ๐ (@MikeZaccardi) August 14, 2023
$NDX – Nasdaq 100 back above the 50 day sma, let's see if we can get follow through. pic.twitter.com/m6zyUTqd16
— Larry Thompson (@HostileCharts) August 14, 2023
$SPY and $RSP still remain above their June high pic.twitter.com/rQDftAkofn
— Stacey.A.Lee (@BBaxter2020) August 14, 2023
Buckle up for the most volatile time of the year from a seasonal perspective.
Hereโs a chart showing the S&Pโs average absolute daily % change over the course of the year: pic.twitter.com/5flMWqmqYh
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) August 13, 2023
Significant reversal over past few months for hedge fundsโ/large speculatorsโ net short positioning in S&P 500 futures pic.twitter.com/UL2hmC3J46
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 14, 2023
$XLK flirting with a lot of lines with today's rotation.
But the move means nothing in isolation. #ItsAllAboutTheFollowThrough pic.twitter.com/jIE7P8Xu6E
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) August 14, 2023
Energy is seeing a broad-based rally. This ain't just a few big players making new highs. There's a party goin' on here and the participation is widespread.
Here's the equal-weight Energy sector ETF setting up for a beauty of a breakout $RSPG ๐ pic.twitter.com/WA0iNNjqqD
— Grayson Roze (@GraysonRoze) August 14, 2023
US 10-year yields hit 4.2%, the highest level since November and just 4bp away from an October level that was the highest since 2007. pic.twitter.com/DBDp3rjMsi
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 14, 2023
China bottoming process? Despite ugly headlines? Time will tell. pic.twitter.com/bka4YHH13u
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) August 14, 2023
Bitcoin volatility has literally NEVER been so low $BTC
(measured by 20-day, 2SD bollinger bandwidth) pic.twitter.com/XPVCJbqC0F
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) August 14, 2023
Safe to say the top 3 stocks in the tech sector are pretty important. If AAPL, MSFT and NVDA were their own sector, it would be the largest in the S&P 500 pic.twitter.com/wpHgytNe86
— Scott Brown, CMT (@scottcharts) August 14, 2023