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Today’s Summary
Friday, August 18, 2023
Indices: Russell 2000 +0.51% | Dow +0.07% | S&P 500 -0.01% | Nasdaq 100 -0.14%
Sectors: 7 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, rising +0.99%. Communications lagged, falling -0.60%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +0.34% to $80.66 per barrel. Gold futures snapped a nine day losing streak, inching higher by +0.07% to $1,917 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index was unchanged at $103.43.
Crypto: Bitcoin dropped -2.22% to a two-month low of $26,051. Ethereum fell -1.33% to $1,661.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield snapped a six-day winning streak, falling to 4.257%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
$vix #vix #volatility VIX cross above 17.50, after below 15.https://t.co/aZM0nJeDnC pic.twitter.com/Qy9DGURsnK
— Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) August 18, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Nautilus Research (@NautiliusCap). The Volatility Index ($VIX) broke below 15 earlier this Summer, setting a new post-pandemic low. It got as low as 12.90 in late June. However, it spiked to a two-month high of 17.90 yesterday as the pullback in the S&P 500 intensified. That’s still relatively low for the $VIX, considering it spent the majority of last year above 17. Nautilus points out that bouts of Volatility tend to be short-lived when they begin from such low levels. The table shows how the $VIX has historically performed after spiking from under 15 to above 17.50. Out of the 28 prior occurrences since 1990, the $VIX was down the following week 79% of the time by an average of -2.15%. Three weeks later, it was down 95% of the time, by an average of -3.71%.
Quote of the Day
“Weekends are a bit like rainbows; they look good from a distance but disappear when you get up close to them.”
– John Shirley
Top Links
Yields on the Rise – Too Much Too Fast? – LPL Financial Research
Adam Turnquist looks at this week’s breakout in Treasury yields.
Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 8/18 – AlphaTrends
Brian Shannon analyzes this week’s price action and identifies some key levels to watch next week.
Are Technology Stocks About to Send Risk-Off Signal? – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble breaks down a long-term chart of the Equal-Weight Nasdaq 100.
Top Charts in the Real Estate Sector – Grindstone Intelligence
Austin Harrison highlights some noteworthy charts within the Real Estate sector.
How Far Could Stocks Fall? – Ciovacco Capital Management
In this video, Chris Ciovacco examines the near-term and long-term outlook for Stocks.
Top Tweets
The S&P 500 closes out its third straight red week for the first time since February. 📉 $SPY pic.twitter.com/DfK33CtnNt
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) August 18, 2023
Would not have guessed tech $XLK was the best performing sector this week.
Wild. pic.twitter.com/fKfBmqvZFq
— Larry Thompson (@HostileCharts) August 18, 2023
First 5% pullback in the S&P 500 since March. Tis but a scratch with the index still up 13% on the year. pic.twitter.com/4qsTXiPgxh
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 18, 2023
Weekly $SPX update: saw a great quote this week, apologies I can't remember who, but went something like this: "An overdue pullback sounds reasonable before it happens, but feels different in real time. The only difference is how you feel about it." pic.twitter.com/qIvNYFiLso
— Michael Turvey (@MikeTurvey_TDA) August 18, 2023
If the recent sell-off has been due to technicals, we're at an important juncture. 23.6% of the S&P 500's gains since the Oct low were wiped out. If it continues, the 38.2% level could get tested, which would be below 4200 and near the 200dma. pic.twitter.com/f2929Pq6A9
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) August 18, 2023
I see no support until the 38% fib and the old high around 334/337 area. Another 5% to go.$QQQ pic.twitter.com/cDJVWhFZRB
— Greg Rieben (@gregrieben) August 18, 2023
Disappointingly, small traders on NDX futures continued to add to positions on weakness. The negative t-stat suggests a good contrarian relationship between positioning and forward returns. #notthereyet pic.twitter.com/8UE3u4eYhG
— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) August 18, 2023
Largest YTD correction was -8%… TBD if exceeded currently, although keep in mind the median is -11% historically. pic.twitter.com/73fRA6kmBZ
— Todd Sohn (@Todd_Sohn) August 18, 2023
Y'all.
It's normal for stocks to go through quick swoons like these.
Even early on in bull markets when the economy looks decent and the mood is brighter. pic.twitter.com/YLDcn98JcJ
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) August 18, 2023
I'm seeing lots of conflicting takes on the Ten Year $TNX with some narratives suggesting over 5% and others suggesting we've already seen peak rates for 2023. From a purely technical perspective, this chart appears to be going higher! pic.twitter.com/hrOan2IuoA
— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) August 18, 2023
The US Dollar Index is on pace for its 5th straight week of gains pic.twitter.com/O56617rLxk
— Austin Harrison, CFA, CMT (@meanstoatrend) August 18, 2023
Since hitting ATHs in May of 2022, Bored Ape Yacht Club prices have collapsed, losing 88% of their value.
Who would have guessed? pic.twitter.com/4Y50CY2gGr
— Brian Lund (@bclund) August 18, 2023