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Today’s Summary
Thursday, August 19th, 2021
Indices: US Stocks were little changed in today’s session, with the exception of Small-Caps. The Dow inched lower by 67 points or 0.19%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ticked higher by just 0.13% and 0.11%, respectively. The Russell 2000 clearly underperformed, and fell for the sixth consecutive day, dropping 1.22%.
Sectors: 5 of the 11 sectors closed lower. Technology led, gaining 0.98%. Energy lagged, dropping 2.60%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures moved lower for the sixth straight day, falling 2.62% to $63.50 per barrel. Gold futures were flat and continue to trade at $1,783 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose 0.44% to an eight-month high.
Interest Rates: The 10-year US Treasury yield continued lower to 1.243%.
are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
$IWM $RUT At an inflection point. pic.twitter.com/2uuytyD51Q
— Aksel Kibar, CMT (@TechCharts) August 19, 2021
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Aksel Kibar (@TechCharts). It’s a daily candlestick chart of the Small-Cap Russell 2000 ETF, $IWM, over the past year. All eyes are on the Russell 2000 as it tests a crucial support level for the fifth time this year. As you can see, Small-Caps have been stuck in a well-defined range between $211 and $233 since March, and we’re once again testing the lower bounds of that range. Will the fifth test be a success? One thing that makes this test unique from the past four is the fact that we’re also testing the 200-day moving average (red) for the first time in nearly a year. Small-Caps often lead the broader market higher or lower. So, it would be hard to overstate just how important this test is to the broader equity market.
Quote of the Day
“One principle for sure would be to get out of anything that falls below the 200-day moving average.“
– Paul Tudor Jones
Top Links
A 40-Year Record Super Trend for the Most Important Index – SentimenTrader
Jason Goepfert points out that the S&P 500 has been at least 8% above its 200-day moving average for nearly 200 consecutive days now.
September Almanac: DJIA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ Worst Month of the Year – Almanac Trader
Seasonality expert, Jeff Hirsch takes a look at how stocks have historically performed in September.
Australian Dollar Decline A Bearish Sign for Commodities – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble explains that further weakness from the Australian dollar would likely put pressure on Commodities.
Can Key Sectors Along with Bitcoin Hold Nearby Support? – StockCharts.com
Mish Schneider takes a look at some key areas of the market and Bitcoin.
Top Tweets
The S&P 500 bounced off its 50-day moving average AGAIN (or turned slightly above it).
Still in the longest streak w/o consecutive closes below the 50-dma since 1996.
The floor is lava, and by floor I mean the 50-dma.https://t.co/b7CCi5Kgpr
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) August 19, 2021
The S&P 500 is now down just 1.77% but the average stock is off by 9.4%. pic.twitter.com/B72weaswWr
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) August 19, 2021
Small-caps back at the March/May/July lows ~212 $IWM pic.twitter.com/nRWN6wOZ2k
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) August 19, 2021
I guess this is a kinda critical level… pic.twitter.com/YHiw7Sh851
— Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer) August 19, 2021
After two months of stiff resistance from its 50-day average, $IWM this morning gapped below its 200-day average. Not bull market behavior. pic.twitter.com/SCpSJ5FwSE
— Willie Delwiche (@WillieDelwiche) August 19, 2021
This is the 5th time $IWM tested the bottom of its range. Why is this time different? Because the other 4 times, $IWM was able to break above its 50MA and test in the upper half of the range. This time $IWM is below its 200MA after failing a its 50MA, with deteriorating RS. pic.twitter.com/RT57zGjwlB
— Bailey.Baxter2020 (@BBaxter2020) August 19, 2021
$IWC microcaps lowest close since Jan 29 pic.twitter.com/bEt4rhF7kt
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) August 19, 2021
This is a bullish-looking break out. Unfortunately, it is for the #dollar, likely spelling trouble for the metals if it follows through. $DXY #gold #silver pic.twitter.com/FlTOo3iTiO
— The Third Coast (@ThirdCoastTA) August 19, 2021
The Bloomberg dollar index reaches its strongest vs peers since November. pic.twitter.com/s2RuWmlLXs
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 19, 2021
Crude Oil yesterday…Copper today.
Copper is breaking down out of 15-week descending triangle this morning after violating a 16-month trend line in June. $HG_F, #commodities pic.twitter.com/Lu46fTCqOv
— Ian Culley (@IanCulley) August 19, 2021
Wow, Crude Oil is not having a good run here. Great for trend following if you're short, but lots of volatility and very weak pricing. Noticing that the US Dollar is strong, metals weak, copper plummeting, and Bitcoin near highs. Troubling combination for a strong economy. ETR! pic.twitter.com/kFR8sdU3Ef
— Tom Basso (@basso_tom) August 19, 2021
#Copper May Be Indicating a #Bond Bull Market –
Our copper outlook is unfavorable vs. gold. Treasury yields typically decline when the red metal's price reverts from elevated extremes, as it did in 1H. pic.twitter.com/ui7X8uEEf1— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) August 19, 2021
BTC:QQQ, Weekly. Take note how crypto is acting in this weak tape. pic.twitter.com/TGqCJk2vGo
— Brian G (@alphacharts) August 19, 2021
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!