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Today’s Summary
Friday, August 19th, 2022
Indices: Dow -0.86% | S&P 500 -1.29% | Nasdaq 100 -1.95% | Russell 2000 -2.17%
Sectors: Health Care was the only sector that closed higher, gaining +0.27%. Consumer Discretionary lagged, dropping -2.06%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +0.37% to $90.44 per barrel. Gold futures fell -0.62% to $1,760 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.57%.
Crypto: Bitcoin dropped -9.26% to $21,053. Ethereum tumbled -11.96% to $1,627.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 2.976%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
#ES_F, 1d
Key observations:
1. ES got rejected at the 200d MA
2. If ES drops below 4200, it will form a Bull Trap pic.twitter.com/izVQit7EfP— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) August 19, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Yuiry Matso (@yuriymatso). The S&P 500 flirted with its 200-day moving average this week, but it was rejected. As we mentioned on Tuesday, there were several different reasons why this was a logical level to see some pause. This little pullback is perfectly normal at this point, considering we surged 17% in just two months. However, the S&P 500 needs to hold above the June highs around 4200. A break below the June highs would constitute a failed breakout or bull trap as Yuriy calls it. You know what they say about failed breakouts…“from failed moves come fast moves in the opposite direction.” Keep an eye on how price behaves around that level next week!
Quote of the Day
“There is no black-and-white situation.
It’s all part of life. Highs, lows, middles.”
– Van Morrison
Trendlines Over Headlines
In this week’s episode of Trendlines Over Headlines, Willie Delwiche joins us to make sense of the current market environment. He shares his thoughts on Breadth, Momentum, Sentiment, and more!
Top Links
Two Reasons the Bulls Should be Smiling – Carson Group
Ryan Detrick highlights some bullish developments to be aware of.
Quantifying the Battle for the 200-day – It’s Elementary – StockCharts
Art Hill suggests using a 5-day moving average in conjunction with the 200-day moving average to reduce whipsaws.
Is Risk Appetite on Board? – All Star Charts
Steve Strazza takes a look at an important risk ratio – Consumer Discretionary vs. Consumer Staples.
Semiconductors ETF (SMH) Trading Near Fibonacci Inflection Point – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble points out that the Semiconductor ETF is testing a confluence of two different key Fibonacci levels.
Top Tweets
The S&P 500 hasn't been down more than 1% on a Friday since a huge 2.9% drop on June 10.
At the end of the day, after a 17% plus rally, finding a little trouble near the 200-day moving average is perfectly normal. pic.twitter.com/SXrSn0bsA5
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) August 19, 2022
The 200 day moving average gets a lot of eye rolls? when mentioned but it's doing it's thing. $IWM $SPY pic.twitter.com/s5XR7Ic3mY
— Greg Rieben (@gregrieben) August 19, 2022
The S&P 500 is back down near the 50% retracement level. If it closes below, we'll likely hear a pickup in "bear market rally" talk. pic.twitter.com/zyHoafBbdC
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) August 19, 2022
The $VIX volatility index's third longest slide on record has come to an end. First week's advance from the indicator – albeit a very small one – in 9 weeks. Is that the turn? pic.twitter.com/szsv4xjVsy
— John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter) August 19, 2022
S&P speculator net short position increased over the past week (to Tuesday). Biggest net short position in over ten years: pic.twitter.com/Y7tAi6ZIO1
— Nick Reece (@nicholastreece) August 19, 2022
The US is still king. The S&P 500 emerges to new all-time highs versus almost all of the major international indexes. pic.twitter.com/o0qqp6JcnY
— Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) August 19, 2022
And what about here for the STOXX Europe 600? pic.twitter.com/Tj4rxpdbwu
— da Chart Life (@daChartLife) August 19, 2022
How bullish on equities would you be if the $SPX looked like $UNG? pic.twitter.com/o3RLGAqA2V
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) August 19, 2022
$DXY US Dollar Index 1W
This trend remains uninterrupted, new weekly closing high. pic.twitter.com/7TUjxD9GtG
— Shane C. Murphy (@murphycharts) August 19, 2022
Violent looking retest?
Or an imminent collapse?
Either way, having a process to manage risk seems sensible. $ETH $BTC pic.twitter.com/y2Cyy67MYa— Sam McCallum (@Honeystocks1) August 19, 2022
Friday Fun With Analogs. pic.twitter.com/4phaeZks3Z
— Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) August 19, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!