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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, August 22, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq 100 -0.19% | S&P 500 -0.28% | Russell 2000 -0.28% | Dow -0.51%
Sectors: 3 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Real Estate led, rising +0.31%. Financials lagged, falling -0.94%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -0.60% to $79.64 per barrel. Gold futures inched higher by +0.16% to $1,926 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.27% to $103.60.
Crypto: Bitcoin inched lower by -0.32% to $26,042. Ethereum fell -2.00% to $1,634.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.328%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Just some perspective on how long of a correction we've been in compared to every other correction since 2012 pic.twitter.com/NOH9ebRICn
— Nick Maggiulli (@dollarsanddata) August 22, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Nick Maggiulli (@dollaranddata). They say markets can correct in one of two ways: price or time. However, Nick points out that the S&P 500 has done both. The current drawdown reached a maximum of -25.4% at the October lows. It’s lasted 410 days, and we’re still down -8.5% from record highs. While the 2020 drawdown was deeper (-33.9%), the current drawdown has lasted 3x longer. Legendary Technician Alan Shaw once famously said, “The longer the base, the higher in space.” As tedious as this basing process has been, it could be laying the groundwork for a multi-year rally.
Quote of the Day
“Believe nothing you hear,
and only one half that you see.”
– Edgar Allan Poe
Trendlines > Headlines
Check out the latest episode of Trendlines over Headlines!
This week, Ari Wald, Head of Technical Analysis at Oppenheimer, joins us to dissect the recent pullback. We discuss:
The S&P 500, Tech, Energy, Real Estate, Yields, The Dollar, Sentiment, and more!
Top Links
What Might US Dollar Strength Mean for the S&P 500 – East Coast Charts
Louis Spector proves that stocks can still go up in a rising dollar environment.
Here’s the Mess the S&P 500 Find Itself In – All Star Charts
JC Parets highlights two key levels to watch on the S&P 500 right now.
Climbing the Wall of Worry? – The Weekly Grind
Sam McCallum looks at a few noteworthy charts.
Energy Holds the 100% Line – Bespoke
Bespoke examines breadth within the Energy sector.
ETF Edge, August 21, 2023 – CNBC
In this clip, Todd Sohn shares his thoughts on AI stocks and the broader market.
Top Tweets
Drought conditions hit #markets. The S&P 500 declined 12/16 trading days in August, the Russell 2000 is down 7.5% MTD, and rising yields pushed bond prices lower. September is around the corner. Unfortunately, it’s the weakest month over the last 40 yrs. pic.twitter.com/wMlY39xE6j
— Cetera Investment Management (@ceteraIM) August 22, 2023
Stock market volatility in 2023 has tracked alongside historical seasonality. A continuation of that trend would imply a spike in vol is coming… pic.twitter.com/dx8928owyf
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) August 22, 2023
$SPX 1 down, 3 to go… pic.twitter.com/5P8TwvrUIQ
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) August 22, 2023
Short-term chart of the S&P 500 I'm watching.
The 50-EMA has been resistance on minor swings with momentum in a short-term bearish range. $SPX pic.twitter.com/ofedxTI8Lc— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) August 22, 2023
The great #sentiment crash of 2023. Sentiment has dropped to its lowest levels since October 2022. If you think markets are rational and efficient, I don't know what you are smoking. $SPY $SPX $QQQ pic.twitter.com/CH4sxN7CzC
— Victor Riesco, CMT (@Global_Trader) August 22, 2023
$TNX vs $ARKK
Higher bond yields put the most pressure on long-duration assets/stocks, (no EPS, negative cash flow, etc).$TNX next move is a good tell on what $ARKK and many high-beta growth stocks, in general, will do. pic.twitter.com/XDNAL1Pe8E— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) August 22, 2023
The effect of rising bond yields on SPX returns is a mixed bag, by this reckoning. $STUDY pic.twitter.com/KjPCawSgKa
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) August 22, 2023
Small H&S pattern forming in Oct Crude Oil $CL_F CLV23 @ChartWizardsNFT pic.twitter.com/usYSH4JdnX
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) August 22, 2023
A convergence of a TRIPLE resistance for the USD…👀 pic.twitter.com/i9xp7Tqwp1
— conradseric, CMT, CAIA, CEFA (@conradseric) August 22, 2023
$TLT – Bonds bullish RSI divergence going to see some follow through? pic.twitter.com/G1TAzIc1YS
— Larry Thompson (@HostileCharts) August 22, 2023
whatever u say $ES_F $TLT pic.twitter.com/Ubes41GcwR
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 (@FusionptCapital) August 22, 2023