Sponsored By:
Today’s Summary
Wednesday, August 24th, 2022
Indices: Russell 2000 +0.84% | S&P 500 +0.29% | Nasdaq 100 +0.28% | Dow +0.18%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led for the third straight day, gaining +1.23%. Tech lagged but still inched higher by +0.06%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +1.23% to $94.89 per barrel. Gold futures were flat, and continue to trade at $1,762 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index inched higher by +0.09%.
Crypto: Bitcoin was flat and continues to trade around $21,510. Ethereum inched lower by -0.23% to $1,660.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.109%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Student loan forgiveness is entirely consistent with past efforts to juice economy heading into mid-term elections.
It's what gives rise to the presidential election cycle for stocks.
Chart from @NDR_Research – top panel is stocks, bottom is monetary/fiscal policy index. pic.twitter.com/lEijKflvmh
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) August 24, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day comes from Ned Davis Research, via Willie Delwiche. The big headline today was Biden’s plan to forgive a portion of student debt. It’s a controversial topic, but it’s important to note that it’s happening right where you’d expect it to within the presidential cycle. The blue line shows the Dow throughout the 4-year presidential cycle. The orange line is the Real Money & Fiscal Policy Index, which we’ll call liquidity. This chart shows that liquidity and stocks go hand in hand throughout the Presidential cycle. As you can see, the best years for stocks tend to come in the second half of a president’s term. As an election approaches, the sitting president tends to do everything in their power to stimulate the economy, which in turn tends to boost stock prices. Will student loan forgiveness be enough to juice the market?
Quote of the Day
“I believe in analysis and not forecasting.”
– Nicholas Darvas
Top Links
The Bears Won’t Make it Easy – Research by Potomac
Dan Russo highlights some key points about the current market environment.
Major Stock Market Indices Enter Fibonacci “Construction” Zone – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble points out that several major US stock market indices are testing key Fibonacci levels.
Coal Brings the Heat – All Star Charts
Steve Strazza points out that Coal stocks are reasserting their leadership.
High Yield Finds Support – Bespoke
Bespoke takes a look at the recent price action in High Yield Bonds.
Top Tweets
$DIA transports and industrials finding support pic.twitter.com/8A1JgqpgHq
— Stacey.A.Lee (@BBaxter2020) August 24, 2022
#NQ_F, 4h
My assumption is that the 12850 level is kind of important. pic.twitter.com/rX20tADpC8
— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) August 24, 2022
We're back to more than half of the S&P 500 being down 20% or more from a 52-week high. pic.twitter.com/1xbiteCYPm
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) August 24, 2022
$XBI – Dip buying, resuscitated. pic.twitter.com/MAw82s6mVK
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) August 24, 2022
A normalized view of long-term sector rotation still favors energy and defensives based on the presumed clockwise movement of the Relative Rotation Graph…credit to @jdekempenaer @RRGresearch who developed this unique way to visualize relative strength data #fairleadstrategies pic.twitter.com/H9VxWSZpBe
— Katie Stockton, CMT (@StocktonKatie) August 24, 2022
$XLE just keeps cranking away. Only sector up in last 5 trading days: pic.twitter.com/nSzEsHMezR
— Pete Carmasino (@PeteCarmasino) August 24, 2022
Thousands of ETFs, Energy only 4% of the S&P 500, yet…….
…..2 of the top 10 ETFs that have been searched by Bloomberg Terminal Users this week have been for Oil & Gas ETFs. Interest in the sector is quickly coming back! #oott #WTI #NYMEX pic.twitter.com/GwI0gpIciM
— Jeremy McCrea, CFA (@JeremyMcCreaCFA) August 24, 2022
Commodity index $DBC back above the 50-day moving average for the first time since June. Beginning of a more significant recovery phase? pic.twitter.com/MJLihWfAKb
— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) August 24, 2022
Does wheat dig in and catch higher as crude oil scoops and scores? $ZW_F $CL_F #commodities pic.twitter.com/DjOz8sjjmd
— Ian Culley (@IanCulley) August 24, 2022
$TIP vs $IEF inflation spread pic.twitter.com/2jbKhClIP0
— Christian Fromhertz ?? (@cfromhertz) August 24, 2022
Current bear market feels drawn out since COVID bear was sharp but short, but S&P 500 has only gone 160 days without clearing new high … prior two recessionary bears were much longer pic.twitter.com/goGls1oEsI
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 24, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!