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Today’s Summary
Thursday, September 1st, 2022
Indices: Dow +0.46% | S&P 500 +0.30% | Nasdaq 100 +0.02% | Russell 2000 -1.15%
Sectors: 8 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Health Care led, rising +1.64%. Energy lagged, dropping -2.46%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures dropped -3.28% to $86.61 per barrel. Gold futures fell -0.98% to $1,709 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index gained +0.87% to a fresh 20-year high.
Crypto: Bitcoin inched higher by +0.30% to $20,120. Ethereum gained +2.34% to $1,591.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a 2-month high of 3.257%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
It is in late September when more weakness is seen. pic.twitter.com/0ZoG2OWwDX
— Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) September 1, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts). September is notoriously the worst month for stocks, with the S&P 500 falling an average of -0.54% since 1950. Alfonso breaks the month down by average daily performance, pointing out that the weakest part of September tends to occur towards the end of the month. Other technicians, like Ryan Detrick, have pointed out recently that September can be especially tricky when the year is already off to a bad start. As we kick off the new month, be aware that we’re fighting a seasonal headwind, especially later this month.
Quote of the Day
“During the dry years, the people forgot about the rich years, and when the wet years returned, they lost all memory of the dry years. It was always that way.”
– John Steinbeck
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Top Links
S&P 500 Posting Big Bearish Reversal in August – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble points out that the S&P 500 printed a bearish reversal candle in August.
September Pain or Gain? – Almanac Trader
Seasonality expert, Jeff Hirsch takes a look at September’s reputation as the worst month.
What Happens When Large Speculators Go Short – Schaeffer’s Investment Research
Rocky White examines how the S&P 500 has historically performed after large speculators get aggressively short.
Reasons to Believe a Bull Market Could Occur Soon, But Expect Pullbacks into Early October: Strategist – BNN Bloomberg
In this clip, Ed Clissold of Ned Davis Research shares his thoughts on the current market environment.
Bears Back Above 50% – Bespoke
Bespoke breaks down the most recent AAII sentiment survey.
Top Tweets
The S&P stared down its fifth straight drop and just said NOT TODAY, FAM pic.twitter.com/so0y8iDdl9
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) September 1, 2022
$IWM was off 11.4% from the Aug peak at its LoD
Down 5 days in a row, but almost a doji today. pic.twitter.com/QifXiNJcE5— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) September 1, 2022
We know that Sept. is usually a weak month, but it is worse when things are already bad heading into it.
S&P 500 down >15% YTD heading into Sept? (like '22)
Down 5% in '62
Flat in '66
Down 12% in '72
Down 11% in '02Be aware the calendar isn't doing anyone any favors yet. pic.twitter.com/9yG3kpVBDH
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) August 31, 2022
"Inverse Traffic Light" update on the S&P500:
– Above the 200MA, Jan & Oct '21 lows = Green
– Below the 200MA down to the May lows = Yellow
– Below the May lows (and lower) = RedGreen = Clear Skies
Yellow = Caution/Choppy
Red = DangerNice to see bullish momentum.$SPY $SPX pic.twitter.com/GUyUlZdbls
— Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CEPA (@AdamKoos) September 1, 2022
Cycle history suggests an important bottom in 2022, according to this old study from Louise Yamada. pic.twitter.com/QPJshNLYTA
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) September 1, 2022
Growth vs. Value, monthly chart.$RLG $RLV pic.twitter.com/7K4HhPrF1L
— Shane C. Murphy (@murphycharts) September 1, 2022
The Tech sector's 10-day advance/decline line is well below the lows it reached at the June lows or any lows over the last year for that matter. Incredibly weak action over the last two weeks. Doesn't stay like this forever. pic.twitter.com/Y0b1iKToAW
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) September 1, 2022
They noticed… pic.twitter.com/Jb47hGbYcK
— Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer) September 1, 2022
Here we go. Dollar index (bloomberg index) hits new highs on prospects for further Fed tightening and relative strength of US economy. pic.twitter.com/Mq7isoi3pp
— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) September 1, 2022
Real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) 5 & 10-yr yields are near late-2018 levels, right before the Fed backed off. The Fed is not backing off here this time. pic.twitter.com/cpAd0qI1CU
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) September 1, 2022
India is wondering what bear market you're talking about as the NIFTY 50 closes the month at new all-time highs pic.twitter.com/c6ezNmgouZ
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) September 1, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!