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Todayās Summary
Friday, September 1, 2023
Indices:Ā Russell 2000Ā +1.11%Ā | DowĀ +0.33%Ā |Ā S&P 500Ā +0.18%Ā | NasdaqĀ -0.07%
Sectors: 6 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, gainingĀ +2.05%. Communications lagged, fallingĀ -0.93%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures roseĀ +2.30%Ā toĀ a nine-month highĀ ofĀ $85.55 per barrel. Gold futures inched higher byĀ +0.06%Ā to $1,967 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index gainedĀ +0.61%Ā toĀ a five-month highĀ of $104.26.
Crypto: Bitcoin fellĀ -0.52%Ā to $25,798. Ethereum fellĀ -1.03%Ā to $1,629.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.181%.
Here areĀ the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
The $SPX fell 1.8% in Aug after surging 19.5% YTD thru July. The 13 previous times SPX +>10% thru July &ā¬ļøin Aug, it rose every time Sept-Dec by avg of 9.9%. Just one data point, but it supports the case that the Aug decline was a pullback within an ongoing uptrend. @NDR_RESEARCH pic.twitter.com/phypwypnA0
— Ed Clissold (@edclissold) September 1, 2023
Todayās Chart of the Day was shared by Ed Clissold (@edclissold). September has historically been the worst month of the year for the S&P 500. However, any potential weakness this month could end up being a good buying opportunity if history is any guide. Ed points out that when the S&P 500 has been upĀ +10%Ā or more through July, the final four months of the year haveĀ alwaysĀ been positive, by an average ofĀ +9.9%. Of course, history is under no obligation to repeat itself, but it does tell us strength tends to beget strength.
Quote of the Day
“Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens.”
ā Jimi Hendrix
Trendlines > Headlines
Check out the latest episode of Trendlines over Headlines!
This week, Market Wizard John Netto joins us to discuss the current market environment and his approach to trading.
Top Links
September Spoiler – LPL Financial Research
Adam Turnquist examines the outlook for the S&P 500 in September.
Stock Market Analysis AlphaTrends Anchored VWAP – AlphaTrends
Brian Shannon breaks down this week’s price action and lays out some key levels to watch next week.
Ready for Higher Oil Prices??? – All Star Charts
JC Parets highlights the strength in Crude Oil and Energy stocks.
New Stock Signals Say Long-Term Opportunity for Investors – Ciovacco Capital Management
Chris Ciovacco shares some noteworthy charts that point to a new bull market.
Tuesday After Labor Day – DJIA and S&P 500 Down Six Straight – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch looks at how the major indices have performed on the day after Labor Day.
Top Tweets
Hope you got some rest this week.
September starts tomorrow, and it's historically been the worst month of the year for stocks ā¬ā¬ā¬ pic.twitter.com/KxVJvpXyKa
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) August 31, 2023
September has historically been the worst month of the year for stocks. However, this weakness tends to occur from the second half of the month. pic.twitter.com/RhKOBnFbD4
— Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) September 1, 2023
Stock market performance in September ranks as the worst month of the year. However, if the VIX fell below 14 in August, the S&P 500 was higher 89% of the time over the next month. pic.twitter.com/ptsvSjeeOX
— Dean Christians, CMT (@DeanChristians) September 1, 2023
$VIX lowest weekly close since Jan 2020 pic.twitter.com/SFAt2hlVYb
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT š (@MikeZaccardi) September 1, 2023
More sectors continue to make golden cross signals with the total now up to nine, the most since the October lows. Only Utilities and Real Estate remain on death crosses. @NDR_Research pic.twitter.com/fX5fvLZeU2
— Rob Anderson (@_rob_anderson) September 1, 2023
money historically rotates into low volatility stocks when there is pressure on markets. They tend to avoid low volatility stocks when it's just a healthy correction within an ongoing uptrend for equities as an asset pic.twitter.com/bWmXS2VlEt
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) September 1, 2023
Agg up 1.6% YTD, while high yield is up nearly 6%.
We've been saying all summer that this leadership from high yield isn't consistent with all those recession calls from economists wearing bowties.
They can have their yield curves, I'll follow credit. pic.twitter.com/RSsh2CvaoC
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) September 1, 2023
Forget tech stocksā¦
French luxury stocks delivered 2X the returns over the last 30 years.
Impressive.$LVMHF $PPRUY $HESAY $CHDRY $MONRF $LRLCY pic.twitter.com/OsIApgHIY5
— Justin Spittler (@JSpitTrades) September 2, 2023
U.S. Dollar Index $DXY closed at 104.26, its highest close since May. Also had a textbook bounce off the 200D moving average as support this week. pic.twitter.com/WYmE2L0mzM
— Barchart (@Barchart) September 2, 2023
US 10yr yields are one of the most important charts to watch right now.
Today's big bullish reversal points to more upside next week and beyond.
Potentially big implications for the US dollar and indices.$DXY $DJIA pic.twitter.com/4MRWecySeV
— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) September 1, 2023
Don't look now, but crude oil made a new 2023 high today.
Okay, go ahead and look: pic.twitter.com/2GtvEOZw4B
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) September 1, 2023
#oil šš? pic.twitter.com/NeKrupFM5Z
— Enrique Abeyta (@enriqueabeyta) September 1, 2023
Happy Birthday to @WarrenBuffett, holder of the most unbelievable investment stat in the world.
Berkshire stock could decline 99% and still be outperforming the S&P 500 since inception.
If it sounds unbelievable, go look it up (I had to).
via @ChrisBloomstran
— Meb Faber (@MebFaber) September 1, 2023