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Today’s Summary
Friday, September 2nd, 2022
Indices: Russell 2000 -0.72% | Dow -1.07% | S&P 500 -1.07% | Nasdaq 100 -1.44%
Sectors: Energy was the only sector that closed higher, rising +1.83%. Communications lagged, dropping -1.90%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +0.74% to $87.25 per barrel. Gold futures gained +0.78% to $1,723 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index was essentially flat (-0.02%).
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -0.98% to $19,921. Ethereum slipped -0.84% to $1,573.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.193%
**Reminder the US Stock Market & Bond Market will be closed on Mondy, September 5th for Labor Day, have a great long weekend!**
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
2022 has been the worst year since at least 1976 (through August) for 60/40 portfolios. #PowellPain https://t.co/kkwfULtgHO pic.twitter.com/wRQCjOWnUJ
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) September 2, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Bespoke (@bespokeinvest). The chart shows the annual performance of a traditional 60/40 Stocks/Bonds portfolio over the past 45 years. The S&P 500 is down -17.7% YTD, marking the 4th worst start to a year ever. To make matters worse, Bonds are having their worst year….ever. The whole purpose of a 60/40 portfolio is to have exposure to Bonds in order to cushion stock market volatility, but that’s clearly not the case this year. Bespoke points out that this has been the worst start to a year for the 60/40 portfolio since 1976. Most long-term investors have never seen this sort of carnage. Will 2022 have a lasting impact on investors’ risk appetite in the coming years?
Quote of the Day
“I hate the weekends because there is no stock market”
– Rene Rivkin
Trendlines Over Headlines
The latest episode of Trendlines Over Headlines is here! In this week’s episode, John Roque of 22V Research returns to the show to help us make sense of the current market environment. He shares his perspective on, the S&P 500, Energy Stocks, The Dollar, Credit Spreads, Inflation, and more!
Top Links
Wake Me Up When September Ends – HoneyStocks Charting
Sam McCallum highlights several important technical developments to keep an eye on this month.
Equity Markets in ‘Retest Mode’ After Rally and June Lows: Technical Analyst – BNN Bloomberg
In this clip, Todd Sohn of Strategas Research offers his thoughts on the current market environment.
Inside Tech It’s Really AAPL vs. MSFT – StockCharts.com
Julius de Kempenaer examines the rotation within the Technology sector.
Are Bonds A Bust Again? – All Star Charts
Ian Culley examines the outlook for Bonds.
Need a podcast to stay up to date with the markets, especially trend-following? Subscribe to The Meb Faber Show podcast today. Meb Faber chats with some of the top people in the investment world to help you stay informed. Whether you want to hear the likes of Tim Pickering on trend-following, Cam Harvey & Rob Arnott on inflation, or Lyn Alden on her macro view of the world, subscribe today so you don’t miss an episode going forward.
Top Tweets
Weekly $SPX update: another rough ending as the tight jobs market keeps rate hikes on the table. One positive: RSI hasn't reached 40 which may coincide with price support. pic.twitter.com/LKEVkWfnhL
— Michael Turvey (@MikeTurvey_TDA) September 2, 2022
$SPY down more than 8% in three weeks would have been big news in years past. pic.twitter.com/GvE7AGy6vc
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) September 2, 2022
$SPY $SPX Bounce attempt lasted 24 hours, driving most indices to the 50 DMA area where sellers showed up and regained control. Momentum & Short Term Trend remains NEGATIVE. Only bullish caveat was the drop in new lows today & a higher low in most stocks/indices. pic.twitter.com/GNPipT2PoF
— Victor Riesco, CMT (@Global_Trader) September 2, 2022
The S&P 500 is down 17.7% in the first 169 trading days of 2022, the 4th worst start to a year in history. $SPX pic.twitter.com/qNH4EqeQ7d
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) September 2, 2022
The S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average for more than 100 trading days today the longest streak below the 200-day since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. pic.twitter.com/nLoVPRiHFU
— ◢ SMS J◎e McCann ? (@joemccann) September 2, 2022
The S&P 500 just fell during the summer (Memorial Day to Labor Day) for the first time in 8 years ? pic.twitter.com/IKFa2xfMGj
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) September 2, 2022
Any lower high from here would result in the THIRD bearish formation since the August highs.
The prior 2 were much smaller. $SPX pic.twitter.com/jEuMBieFNX
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) September 2, 2022
With so much focus on inflation/oil prices, Energy has been uncharacteristically acting as a risk-off sector, outperforming during the last six S&P 500 declines of 5% or greater. @NDR_Research pic.twitter.com/8eL1qxiktb
— Rob Anderson (@robanderson_stl) September 2, 2022
TNX. 10yr-yield closed the week above its 2018 highs, again. pic.twitter.com/LyPFpzbimv
— Louis Spector (@EastCoastCharts) September 2, 2022
The smart money is buying silver.
For only the 3rd time in history, commercial hedgers are holding a net long position in silver futures.
The other two preceded 20% rallies. pic.twitter.com/Bp0OfFQFej
— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) September 2, 2022
Rolling 120d correlation between S&P 500 and #bitcoin is hovering near an all-time high pic.twitter.com/52NZefB5pP
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) September 2, 2022
Gasoline futures have already fallen ~45% from their all-time highs in June
The national average gas price has come down about 25% from its high of ~$5 (on 6/14) to $3.80 today#inflation $RB_F pic.twitter.com/RdXH02p6xC
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) September 2, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!