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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, September 19, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq 100 -0.22% | S&P 500 -0.22% | Dow -0.31% | Russell 2000 -0.42%
Sectors: 2 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Health Care led, inching higher by just +0.08%. Energy lagged, falling -0.93%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures inched lower by -0.11% to $90.48 per barrel. Gold futures were flat at $1,954 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index inched higher by +0.13% to $105.21.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +1.66% to $27,214. Ethereum gained +0.36% to $1,644.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.361% – its highest since 2007.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
$DXY #DXY The dollar continues to show signs of potentially rolling over here as negative divergence starts to play out on the MACD.
This would be one headwind out of the way for $SPX $SPY $QQQ $IWM #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/tc0e1cezBO
— Jake Wujastyk (@Jake__Wujastyk) September 18, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Jake Wujastyk (@Jake_Wujastyk). The US Dollar Index ($DXY) is on track to snap its nine-week winning streak. $DXY has only had four other nine-week winning streaks in its history. Three of the four streaks ended after nine weeks, while the record streak in 2014 lasted another three weeks. Winning streaks are trivial, but Jake points out that $DXY looks due for some pause. It’s testing 10-month resistance at $105, while momentum has started to wane. The S&P 500 has stalled since the Dollar reversed higher at the end of July. However, it’s held up fairly well considering its inverse relationship with the Dollar in recent years.
Quote of the Day
“Stock market corrections, although painful at the time, are actually a very healthy part of the whole mechanism, because there are always speculative excesses that develop, particularly during the long bull market.”
– Ron Chernow
Top Links
100 Trading Days and Counting Without S&P 500 Daily Loss of 1.5% or More – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch examines how the S&P 500 has historically performed after going 100 days without a daily loss of 1.5% or more.
The Stock Market Just Entered its Weakest 10-day Stretch of the Year – Business Insider
Stephen Suttmeier shares some stats on the weakness that has historically occurred in the final two weeks of September.
Two Key Groups Take a Turn for the Worse – StockCharts
Arthur Hill examines the recent weakness in Retail ($XRT) and Regional Banks ($KRE).
Most Important Trend on Earth? – All Star Charts
JC Parets highlights the resurgence in Commodities.
Crude Oil & Breakeven Inflation: What Gives? – TradingView
Mike Zaccardi looks at the relationship between Crude Oil and breakeven inflation rates.
Top Tweets
If you buy at the close on September 19th and hold for the next 10 days, this is one of the worst two week returns for stocks out of the entire year.
The good news? Some of the best aren't too far away. pic.twitter.com/lJjaHXImgT
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) September 19, 2023
If you are surprised the $SPY and $QQQ are breaking lower you need to get that 5 day simple moving average on your chart
below a declining #5DMA markets (and stocks) should not be purchased
failed move higher last week continuing with fast move lower
Orange = 5DMA
Red = MTD… pic.twitter.com/5ipRDH7Mc1— Brian Shannon, CMT (@alphatrends) September 19, 2023
Small caps are back below the 200-day moving average pic.twitter.com/DkV8ki4lMc
— Austin Harrison, CFA, CMT (@meanstoatrend) September 19, 2023
Highest close for the 2-year Treasury yield in 17 years. pic.twitter.com/bmYCfV3Xif
— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) September 19, 2023
10y Treasury yield moving up to new cycle high this morning pic.twitter.com/ybOuZNrKUn
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) September 19, 2023
Fresh cycle closing highs on the Treasury curve from the 1yr to the 10yr via @KoyfinCharts
Signup for a special discounted price: https://t.co/FaA2fywcrQ pic.twitter.com/RAiK9KG6rh
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) September 19, 2023
US 10-Year yield is making a new cycle-high
But $ARKK (unprofitable tech) is making a higher-low
Evidence that equity market participants aren't really buying the "higher for longer" narrative… pic.twitter.com/0zxzy2YGqj
— Mike Singleton, CFA (@InvictusMacro) September 19, 2023
The US Dollar Index is on pace to have a golden cross in the coming days. Should you care? pic.twitter.com/A0wDronEKK
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) September 19, 2023
$DXY Dollar Index hovering right below its resistance level – look how many times it's touched this level! pic.twitter.com/VKZSeXKgvZ
— Dash, CMT, CFP (@Dash_charts) September 19, 2023
Here is the 2023 $DXY chart (blue) overlayed with the 30 year historical seasonal pattern. I talked about this on my latest @DataArbor post pic.twitter.com/JDbao5s0FE
— PetrTrades (@PetrTrades) September 20, 2023
The commodities supercycle thesis seems intact, isn't it? pic.twitter.com/PhGcmkHoyj
— Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) September 19, 2023
Arch Coal changed its name to Arch Resources in May 2020, just weeks after the stock bottomed following a 77% drawdown. It has rallied more than 500% since and made new all-time highs $ARCH pic.twitter.com/M07SVIuOVX
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) September 19, 2023