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Today’s Summary
Friday, September 24th, 2021
Indices: US Stocks were little changed in today’s session, with the Dow ticking up just 33 points or 0.10%. The S&P 500 inched higher by 0.15%, while the Nasdaq was flat (0.03%). The Russell 2000 underperformed, falling 0.49%.
Sectors: 7 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Communications led, rising 0.82%. Real Estate lagged, falling 1.14%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures continued higher by 0.93% to $73.98 per barrel. Gold futures inched higher by 0.11% to $1,752 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose 0.21%.
Interest Rates: The 10-year US Treasury yield continued higher to 1.454%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Ran-dumb:
– weekly drawdown -2% or worse? Check
– weekly return between 0-1%? Check
– weekly close within -10% of ATH? CheckT+3 the S&P 500's higher 17 of 21 for 1.70% on average.
57% of the time she never looks back.
Call this a good omen, not a guarantee. pic.twitter.com/IF7boSlnJQ
— Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) September 24, 2021
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Steve Deppe (@SJD10304). This week started off ugly, with the S&P 500 dropping more than 2% intraday on Monday. However, buyers quickly stepped in and we managed to close positive on the week by 0.51%. Steve points out that similar price action has historically led to positive forward returns over the next few weeks. Of course, we can never expect history to repeat exactly. But stats like these are valuable because they put the tape in context, and can give you an idea of how the market behaves under similar conditions.
Quote of the Day
“In Wall Street, the only thing that’s hard to explain is next week.”
– Louis Rukeyser
Top Links
Weekly Market Performance – Small Caps and Energy Power This Week’s Results – LPL Financial Research
The team at LPL Financial Research sums up this week’s market performance.
Gap Closed Amid Increasing Risk Appetite – Potomac Fund Management
Dan Russo examines several important ratio charts.
Who’s Ready for Rising Rates? – All Star Charts
The team at All Star Charts examines which areas of the stock market are likely to benefit in a rising rate environment.
Can Emerging Markets Recapture Magic With Important Breakout? – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble breakdown a long-term chart of the Emerging Markets ETF, $EEM.
Mid Week Update – The Chart Report
In case you missed it, here’s a conversation I had with Steve Stazza yesterday about this week’s pullback in Stocks and the breakout in Treasury Yields.
Top Tweets
As we noted at the end of Q1, when the S&P 500 doesn't violate the December lows in Q1, the rest of the yr is usually extremely strong (higher 94.3% of time).
In fact, full yr the SPX is up an average of 18.4% when the Dec low isn't violated in Q1.
The S&P 500 is up 18.5% YTD. pic.twitter.com/mJGp6ju6b8
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) September 24, 2021
The S&P 500 ETF has not closed below its 200-day moving average since May 2020. This is the 5th longest streak since its inception in 1993. $SPY pic.twitter.com/xEKK4dqUvT
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) September 23, 2021
Looking like this move in 10y yield out of recent consolidation is going to stick. Implied target just above 1.5%. $TNX pic.twitter.com/71KLrcvZTj
— Michael Turvey (@MikeTurvey_TDA) September 24, 2021
Energy, Financials & Industrials this week demonstrating they appreciate higher bond yields. Real Estate and Utilities showing that they do not. pic.twitter.com/CFEkhlyVph
— Willie Delwiche (@WillieDelwiche) September 24, 2021
Energy sector has been on a tear lately … just over a month ago, 0 members were trading > 50d moving average; as of yesterday, that has shot up to 90.5%
@Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/8kkn7RWIXt— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) September 24, 2021
$XLY setting up to breakout to ATH's, $XLY: $XLP setting to breakout of is 9 month range pic.twitter.com/vQlXY6tJaz
— Bailey.Baxter2020 (@BBaxter2020) September 24, 2021
Discretionary vs. Staples (Equal-weight)
New highs = risk on$RCD $RHS pic.twitter.com/jI8ZMGF4Ys
— Shane C. Murphy (@murphycharts) September 23, 2021
whoa, serious action in $IWM, +$6b in past 4 days, not normal, esp given small caps have been moving sideways since March. Looks like tactical bullish betting to me (likely models), but can't totally know. pic.twitter.com/s9Zd7XqD6e
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) September 24, 2021
$IWM gets over the 10wk by a hair. And back into the upper half of this 9 month range.https://t.co/vO2i78ZAQA
— andy_moss (@Andy__Moss) September 24, 2021
Dow Transports with the false breakdown, meanwhile S&P Transports with the fresh breakout.$IYT $XTN pic.twitter.com/uisyYY6irX
— J4 (@J4_doji) September 24, 2021
natural gas has been one of the strongest in the commodity space in the last six months… was that a pullback in the uptrend? pic.twitter.com/GSQSSPFRbO
— David Cox, CMT, CFA (@DavidCoxWG) September 24, 2021
Still long $CT_F
With all that has happened to cotton growing areas, no one is really talking about cotton. If we look at the price (closes only) we are moving in to a new range. On a bar chart this is a huge outside week up close in the middle of an incredibly bullish trend. pic.twitter.com/iYXYDFEu7Q— Jason (Perz) Boyd (@JasonBoyd138) September 24, 2021
Is Cotton finally going to break out of this decade-long base?
Gotta be long above 96… $CT_F $BAL pic.twitter.com/UJ8EGRc9Va
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) September 24, 2021
$TSLA nice day breaking above the recent consolidation and highest close since February pic.twitter.com/2KMeBcBRvQ
— Gregory Krupinski (@G_krupins) September 24, 2021
Chart buy signals $TSLA Sorry @chevrolet @GM pic.twitter.com/h6Pl6dYpkc
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) September 24, 2021
Is the bet you want to make that people are going to start taking care of themselves better? Or are you betting that they're just going to keep eating themselves to death? I see a big base and a favorable risk vs reward opportunity setting up…. $TWNK pic.twitter.com/sgwyP9YZzP
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) September 24, 2021
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!