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Todayโs Summary
Wednesday, September 27, 2023
Indices: Russell 2000 +0.98% | Nasdaq +0.24%ย | S&P 500 +0.02% | Dow -0.20%ย
Sectors: 4 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, rising +2.49%. Utilities lagged, dropping -1.92%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures had their best day in three months, rising +3.64% to a new 52-week high of $93.68 per barrel. Gold futures slid -1.51% to a six-month low of $1,891 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.45% to its highest level since November at $106.65.
Crypto: Bitcoin gained +0.58% to $26,361. Ethereum inched higher by +0.26% to $1,597.
Volatility: The Volatility Index fell -3.80% to 18.21.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a new multi-year high of 4.610%.
Here areย the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Hammer time$SPX pic.twitter.com/MkMfL1pb3V
โ David Rath, CMT, CFA (@DJwrath) September 27, 2023
Todayโs Chart of the Day was shared by David Rath (@DJwrath). The S&P 500 was unchanged today (+0.02%) but closedย +0.85%ย off the day’s lows. David points out that today’s intraday rally formed a hammer candle, at a key trendline. This rising trendline has been in place for nearly a year as it connects the October/March intraday lows. Hammer candles often indicate a bullish reversal, but price will need to follow through higher tomorrow for confirmation. RSI (lower pane) closed at 30.50 today, avoiding what would’ve been its first oversold reading (below 30) since last September. The next task for the bulls is reclaiming the August 2022 highs, around 4,300.
Quote of the Day
“When you’re in a major market downturn,
the beta eats the alpha.”
โ Jeff Gundlach
Trendlines > Headlines
This week, we sat down with one of the most respected sell-side technicians,ย John Kolovos, ofย Macro Risk Advisors. We discuss the outlook for Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, and more!
Top Links
Virtual Chart Summit 2023 – StockMarket TV
Catch up on all of the presentations from Chart Summit 2023.
October Almanac: Bear-Killer, Bargain Month, Turnaround Month – Alamanc Trader
Jeff Hirsch gives an overview of October seasonality.
Stock Market Analysis Sept 27, 2023 – AlphaTrend.net
In this video, Brian Shannon analyzes recent price action and lays out some key levels to watch in the near term.
History Suggests Stock Weakness Could Be Ahead – Schaeffer’s Investment Research
Rocky While examines how the S&P 500 has historically performed after a two-day drop of -2.5% or more.
Top Tweets
Daily Mkt Mood: Mixed
1. Stocks mixed
2. High vol, choppy day
3. Oil, Nat gas up
4. Yields up
5. Dollar upGiven the above, itโs almost impressive stocks closed off the lows.
That said, SPX 200-DMA is calling.
Alsoโฆ S&P in Sept down >5% for worst month potentially in 2023.
— Abigail Doolittle (@TheChartress) September 28, 2023
$SPY did the old undercut and rally under the AVWAP from March. Could have trapped some shorts. pic.twitter.com/qHH0KnmlQ4
— Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA ๐จ๐ฆ (@MichaelNaussCMT) September 27, 2023
$SPY moving average breadth was oversold going into today.
% above 20-day: 10.14%
% above 50-day: 13.72%The weakness continued intraday before closing up ~0.89% from the lows. This could have been the washout short-term pic.twitter.com/lYsN66U4ab
— Tyler Lovingood (@Tyler_Lovingood) September 27, 2023
A good or bad oversold? pic.twitter.com/PqdprlCzwY
— John Kolovos, CMT, CFA (@John_Kolovos) September 27, 2023
For bull markets that started in 2002, 2009, and 2020, % of NASDAQ 100 members trading above 200d moving average breached 90% threshold within a year of start; index hasnโt yet gotten there even though itโs almost a year off October 2022 low pic.twitter.com/pbcw7Ivmr6
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) September 27, 2023
$SPX – SPX closed below its 6-month moving average, after having been above it for at least 6-months and SPX is in a bull swing up (>20%) that occurred within the last year (252-days.)
Just reporting the stats. pic.twitter.com/8xDedTS58D
— Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) September 27, 2023
Y'all this is nuts
The VIX โ the fear gauge derived from S&P options โ has only risen to 18.94 in this selloff, even though the S&P has dropped 6.9%.
Could be the first selloff since 2005 in which the S&P fell this much and the VIX didn't reach 20
(data since 2000) pic.twitter.com/K8Q9GIttib
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) September 27, 2023
SHOWTIME for global equities… pic.twitter.com/lEoPg8cGYp
— conradseric, CMT, CAIA, CEFA (@conradseric) September 27, 2023
#Gold has dropped below USD 1,900! pic.twitter.com/Opz7NkAlkH
— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) September 27, 2023
New highs for both the Dollar and Crude Oil. The positive correlation continues…$DXY $CL_F https://t.co/7BlvvqWJtT pic.twitter.com/AQawMGca6J
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) September 27, 2023
WTI Crude Oil is back testing 2023 highs above $92 after consolidating for a week near $90.
Say it with me:
JUST ๐ BECAUSE ๐ A ๐ BULLISH ๐ TREND ๐ BREAKS ๐ DOESN'T ๐ MEAN ๐ A ๐ MARKET ๐ IS ๐ ENTERING ๐ A ๐ BEARISH ๐ TREND pic.twitter.com/v0KqUWrEpa
— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) September 27, 2023
The big driver behind the dollarโs moves (yellow line) over the past year has been the yield differential between US bonds and global bonds (blue line). pic.twitter.com/06jTznBplm
— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) September 27, 2023
Investors continue to jump into the Treasury trade $TLT, with more than $16 billion of inflows to the ETF in 2023.
That's the second largest YTD inflow for an ETF, second only to $VOO. pic.twitter.com/RyqxJi1f6d
— Koyfin (@KoyfinCharts) September 27, 2023
Silicon Valley Bank wasn't the start of 2008, it was a buying opportunity. AI wasn't a trip to the moon, it was a trip to resistance. Today isn't 1987, it's a retracement. $SPX $PCALL pic.twitter.com/dSviX7e30S
— John F. Carter (@johnfcarter) September 27, 2023