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Todayās Summary
Friday, September 29, 2023
Indices:Ā Nasdaq 100Ā +0.08%Ā | S&P 500Ā -0.27%Ā |Ā DowĀ -0.47%Ā | Russell 2000Ā -0.51%
Sectors: 4 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Consumer Discretionary led, risingĀ +0.53%. Energy lagged, droppingĀ -2.02%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fellĀ -1.00%Ā to $90.79 per barrel. Gold futures fellĀ -0.67%Ā to a six-month low of $1,866 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index ticked higher byĀ +0.05%Ā to $106.17.
Crypto: Bitcoin fellĀ -0.51%Ā to $26,889. Ethereum roseĀ +0.85%Ā to $1,667.
Volatility: The Volatility Index roseĀ +0.98%Ā to 17.51.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield was flat at 4.575%.
Here areĀ the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
For a few minutes this morning I wasn't so sure I'd get to post this chart today, but…
Make it 11!
11 straight weeks of gains for the US Dollar Index. Next week we'll try to match the record set in 2014 pic.twitter.com/vedmAJzPfQ
— Austin Harrison, CFA, CMT (@meanstoatrend) September 29, 2023
Todayās Chart of the Day was shared by Austin Harrison (@meanstoatrend).Ā Ā The US Dollar Index ($DXY) roseĀ +0.54%Ā this week, marking an 11-week winning streak.Ā This is the second-longest weekly winning streak in the history of the US Dollar Index, and it will attempt to tie theĀ record 12-week streak from 2014Ā next week. While winning streaks are mostly trivial, $DXY also notched its highest weekly close in 10 months.Ā ItāsĀ currently testing the AVWAP from the September ā22 peak, but itās comfortably above $105, which was resistance from the January/March highs. Stock market bulls hope $DXY will find resistance soon, as strength from the Dollar (and yields) was a major headwind for them in Q3.
Quote of the Day
“October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.”
ā Mark Twain
Top Links
Oversold into October – LPL Financial Research
Adam Turnquist examines the outlook for the S&P 500 as we head into October.
October’s First Trading Day Prone to Volatility, But S&P 500 Up 8 of Last 11 – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch looks at how Stocks have historically performed on the first trading day in October.
Stock Market Analysis September 29 2023 Alphatrends Anchored VWAP
Brian Shannon breaks down recent price action and lays out some key levels to watch next week.
Inflows to Bond ETFs on the Rise: Strategas Securitiesā Todd Sohn – CNBC
In this clip, Todd Sohn of Strategas discusses what ETF flows could suggest about sentiment right now.
Virtual Chart Summit 2023 – StockMarket TV
Catch up on all of the presentations from Chart Summit 2023.
Top Tweets
S&P 500 posts worst one-month performance since December 2022. š„ $SPY pic.twitter.com/278iygX2k1
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) September 29, 2023
S&P 500 down 5% in September
worst monthly performance of 2023 pic.twitter.com/4A4FXz5PZE
— Katie Greifeld (@kgreifeld) September 29, 2023
Was that it for the $SPX bounce? All eyes on the bullish trend line heading into next week, with a potential drop down to ~4200 support in play if that gives way. pic.twitter.com/Ak4Hz5WHo3
— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) September 29, 2023
The S&P 500 is lower than where it was 27 months ago. pic.twitter.com/KxXEDfKgI7
— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) September 29, 2023
$SPY flat since June '21$QQQ flat since July '21$IWM flat since August '18 (over 5 years!)
Worth thinking about what this means
Also, one of these is not like the others pic.twitter.com/Z5H555Drdk
— Mike Singleton, CFA (@InvictusMacro) September 29, 2023
After a few months of being mostly bullish, the AAII surveys now show a flip to bearishness. The change lines up with the Fed meeting, which featured a hawkish dot plot and the removal of two rate cuts from 2024. pic.twitter.com/6cJqum9UKq
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) September 29, 2023
Utes and REITS confirming these new highs for yields$XLU $XLRE $TNX pic.twitter.com/0ul7SKP4c6
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) September 29, 2023
$TLT #TLT 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
traded the largest weekly volume on record this week, 240M shares (the previous record was 177m shares in Aug '11) pic.twitter.com/FN7M4CR0rl
— Christian Fromhertz šŗšø (@cfromhertz) September 29, 2023
The moment to add duration is approaching, but we are not there yet.
Below is the quarterly $TLT fund flows versus price. Since Q4 2021 investors have been increasingly betting on ultra-long duration, but prices have been plunging -40% since then.@saxobank @SaxoStrats @SaxoUK pic.twitter.com/bwT1lqjPpB
— Althea Spinozzi (@Altheaspinozzi) September 29, 2023
US Dollar is up 11 of the last 11 weeks.
It almost pulled off a perfect quarter. pic.twitter.com/7IY1W2kwEU
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT š (@MikeZaccardi) September 29, 2023
The US Dollar is up against the āļøVWAP from the 2022 high, probably due for a pause/reset here$DXY pic.twitter.com/cz3q8DT6O6
— Brian Shannon, CMT (@alphatrends) September 29, 2023
#Oil continues to pull back here after testing the "make or break" zone this week.
The August 23rd pivot VWAP is the main downside level to watch currently at $87.43. $CL_F #WTI pic.twitter.com/82eueDFHU1
— Jake Wujastyk (@Jake__Wujastyk) September 29, 2023
This probably is the most important technical damage of the week. #GOLD slips below the 200-day average with a long black weekly candle. pic.twitter.com/HSTWvEnOhN
— Aksel Kibar, CMT (@TechCharts) September 29, 2023
Wow, 68 ETFs launched in Sept, which is >3/day pace) and an all-time record and this doesn't incl the nine eth futures ETFs (which technically launch in Oct). Lots going on! Nice chart from @Todd_Sohn pic.twitter.com/ou61mgPykG
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) September 29, 2023