Daily Chart Report 📈 Tuesday, October 1, 2024

October 1, 2024

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Today’s Summary

Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Indices: Dow -0.41% | S&P 500 -0.93% | Nasdaq 100 -1.43% | Russell 2000 -1.48%

Sectors: 4 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, gaining +2.28%. Materials lagged, dropping -2.44%.

Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +2.44% to $69.83 per barrel. Gold futures rose +1.16% to $2,690 per oz.

Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.45% to $101.21.

Crypto: Bitcoin is currently down -3.91% to $60,824. Ethereum is down -5.66% to $2,454.

Volatility: The Volatility Index spiked +15.26% to 19.27.

Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.732%.

Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!

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Chart of the Day

October in election years: -0.85%

October in election years ex-2008: +0.1%

October in all years: +0.95%

Something for everybody pic.twitter.com/b1bd5YIsuQ
— Scott Brown, CMT (@scottcharts) October 1, 2024

🏆 Today's Chart of the Day was shared by Scott Brown (@scottcharts).

Looking at all years since 1950, September has historically been the worst month for the S&P 500. However, the Bulls prevailed this year, booking a solid monthly gain of +2.0%.
Scott points out that October seasonality is a bit more nuanced. In all years since 1950, October has historically been strong, with an average gain of +0.95%. On the other hand, it has been the worst month in election years, with an average loss of -0.85%.
The 2008 Financial Crisis significantly skews the Election-year average. Excluding that single data point, the average election year improves from -0.85% to +0.10%.

Takeaway: October seasonality is like a choose-your-own-adventure novel. It's usually a decent month, but it has been more challenging in election years like 2024.

Quote of the Day

"October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.”

– Mark Twain

Top Tweets

Three straight crappy starts to a month. $SPX pic.twitter.com/Q6tMPj8xcJ
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) October 1, 2024

S&P 500 up 20.8% heading into October could mean we finally see some red, with October lower 7 of 9 times stocks were up 20% or more heading into this spooky month.

This isn't a bad thing though, as Q4 tends to still rally and we'd expect this to play out again in '24. pic.twitter.com/SCOrDsjgmg
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 1, 2024

Was that it? $SPY @CMTAssociation #StockMarket #investing pic.twitter.com/2QizHMnPHZ
— John Kolovos, CMT, CFA (@John_Kolovos) October 1, 2024

OH: "I swear to god the market is trolling us with all these head n' shoulders" $SOXX pic.twitter.com/yGXGYIQBDK
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) October 1, 2024

Despite how sad investors have become over the past 2 months (check the data, pessimism reigns), the Nasdaq100 closed the month and yet another new all-time high, which is a perfectly normal characteristic of healthy bull markets. pic.twitter.com/kEvI4Spsbf
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) October 1, 2024

The S&P 500 has printed 43 new all-time highs in 2024 so far and is up more than 20% year-to-date.

Looks like some investors see this as a bearish sign...$SPX $SPY #AAII pic.twitter.com/rOJfhiZugy
— Duality Research (@DualityResearch) October 1, 2024

$VIX positioning update - Commercials have lately dropped their VIX positioning extremely, while the dumb money is as strongly positioned as they were at the peak of the COVID crash - looking at this, a continuation of the rally in the US indices is likely! $SPX $NDX #stocks #US pic.twitter.com/ic1zC7OxXw
— Cycle Investment Strategy (@cycle_strategy) October 1, 2024

VIX up 14% on SPX down 1%... (14x beta). Have talked a bunch about this "re-energized" beta after an abysmal 2022 and 2023 (SPX down 19% in 2022 and VIXY down 25%). Here are 2 regressions...the top from 2022 to Aug 2024. The second one since Aug 2024. The betas are much higher… pic.twitter.com/4yGVNUv9Zy
— Alpha_Ex_LLC (@Alpha_Ex_LLC) October 1, 2024

China historical rallies – when they occur – are like an F1 vehicle going from 0 to 100 mph in seconds. By our work, the average MSCI China rally is roughly +78% over 176 trading days. Volatility is intense though with the index producing an average intra-year correction of -30% pic.twitter.com/6WQqhymhap
— Todd Sohn (@Todd_Sohn) October 1, 2024

Big move in China Tech vs US Tech making a new high and recovering a prior level to start the week. $KWEB $BABA $BIDU $MSFT pic.twitter.com/Koe5ZJB9iT
— Aaron Jackson (@RotationReport) October 1, 2024

Gold's latest pullback lasted two days. So far this year, its maximum drawdown on a closing basis has been just 5.1%. $GLD pic.twitter.com/AMRmQjb4f3
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) October 1, 2024

BREAKING 🚨: Gasoline

Gasoline falling towards lowest price in more than 3.5 years pic.twitter.com/qn3Th1MMkg
— Barchart (@Barchart) October 1, 2024

You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!

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