Daily Chart Report 📈 Thursday, October 3, 2024

October 3, 2024

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Today’s Summary

Thursday, October 3, 2024

Indices: Nasdaq 100 -0.05% | S&P 500 -0.17% | Dow -0.44% | Russell 2000 -0.68%

Sectors: 2 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, gaining +1.76%. Consumer Discretionary lagged, dropping -1.16%.

Commodities: Crude Oil futures jumped +5.15% to $73.71 per barrel. Gold futures gained +0.36% to $2,679 per oz.

Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.33% to $101.94.

Crypto: Bitcoin inched higher by +0.18% to $60,745. Ethereum fell -0.58% to $2,350.

Volatility: The Volatility Index rose +8.30% to 20.48.

Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.848%.

Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!

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Chart of the Day

The resemblance between these two charts is striking.
The correlation between them is nearly perfect.

If you hold a bullish or bearish stance on one, you should likely adopt the same stance on the other.
⬇ ⬇#Oil #USD $USO $DXY pic.twitter.com/zFu4MpCoZF
— Greg Rieben (@gregrieben) October 3, 2024

🏆 Today's Chart of the Day was shared by Greg Rieben (@gregrieben).

Crude Oil had its best day in nearly a year today, with futures jumping +5.2%. It's up +8.1% this week, putting it on track for its best week since March 2023.
At the same time, the US Dollar Index ($DXY) is on track for its best week in two years. It has closed higher every single day this week despite hitting a two-year low last week.
Greg points out that Crude Oil and the US Dollar have been attached at the hip in the post-pandemic era. The 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX) has also followed these two.

Takeaway: Crude Oil and the US Dollar ($DXY) are rebounding simultaneously off 52-week lows. If they continue to rebound, it will likely put pressure on risk assets, including stocks, gold, and crypto.

Quote of the Day

“What frightens us today is exactly the same sort of thing that frightened us yesterday. It's just a different wolf.”

– Alfred Hitchcock

Top Tweets

The S&P 500 $SPY fell -0.19% today.

It's down -1.03% from the ATH daily close.

It's still trading above the prior YTD & all-time highs.

It's above it's 21-day EMA.

The 21-day EMA is above the 55-day EMA & the 55 EMA is above the 200. pic.twitter.com/KGwE4eBZDR
— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) October 3, 2024

October seasonal versus fresh support: Near-term tossup, in my view. Expecting late-month rally, however, as seasonal tailwind emerges. pic.twitter.com/KYnKUZWQ5X
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) October 3, 2024

While the annual seasonal pattern remains challenging for another few weeks (until mid-October), the Presidential election cycle has clearly dominated and remains bullish until year-end. pic.twitter.com/sw3QY7qewh
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) October 3, 2024

Goldman Sachs:

Small Cap Election Year seasonality for Small-caps.
Time to buy the dip into week 4 of October is upon us!
You're not going to time it right, so just continue to nibble all the way to through seasonal trough. $SPX $RTY $IWM $RUT $SPY $QQQ pic.twitter.com/t0C6zLxfaA
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 3, 2024

$VIX - Realized Volatility is 9 points wide right now. $VIX ~20.5 Realized Volatility 11. pic.twitter.com/PjTBZTJHuv
— Robby (@HalfersPower) October 3, 2024

The S&P500 and Nasdaq100 just had their highest monthly closes ever - on both an equally-weighted basis AND on a market-cap weighted basis. All of these just hit new all-time highs $SPY $QQQ $QQEW $RSP Which is historically not evidence of a downtrend in price. pic.twitter.com/hIBKlCpP2s
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) October 3, 2024

While many would say that this week has been challenging for markets, the best risk appetite ratio (Discretionary vs Staples) is actually hitting new 2-year highs.$SPX $SPY $RSPD $RSPS pic.twitter.com/tXnfLXPTyb
— Duality Research (@DualityResearch) October 3, 2024

If we are in the middle of an AI revolution, how come the companies that make the AI chips have not outperformed for almost 4 yrs?

If we measure from the first big $NVDA earnings report in May last year, semiconductors have actually underperformed the S&P 500...$XSD $RSP pic.twitter.com/YVLHSZBaA7
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) October 3, 2024

$XOP / $SPY breaking out of short term channel and turning up from longer term channel support pic.twitter.com/WAmJNFmWV8
— Jamie Saettele, CMT (@JamieSaettele) October 3, 2024

$TNX & $XLE pic.twitter.com/F1cdvLcAgu
— Larry Thompson (@HostileCharts) October 3, 2024

WTI Crude #Oil is up 5.5% today, making new session highs ~$74/barrel - CL futures are up 8.5% so far this week as traders cover shorts ahead of Israel's response to the #Iran missile barrage earlier in the week.

There has been a lot of short covering in oil futures in the last… pic.twitter.com/FxPB1WlC7S
— CEO Technician (@CEOTechnician) October 3, 2024

$CL_F - Crude Oil Futures pic.twitter.com/0XSq4Lvcmx
— Bhagyashree Urdhwareshe, CMT (@sunsofttech) October 3, 2024

Last false breakdown took the dollar to 107.

Will this play out the same way?$DXY pic.twitter.com/QTVsOq2BD6
— David Rath, CMT, CFA (@DJwrath) October 3, 2024

The dollar has been higher every day this week. The U.S. dollar index $DXY bounced off a strong support level after better than expected economic data and comments from Powell on Monday regarding not rushing to cut rates. DXY continues to defend that 100 level with authority. pic.twitter.com/3FZwvtI1zX
— Ross J Brown (@RJB_Financial) October 3, 2024

What a clear line in the sand we have here in Nvidia $NVDA pic.twitter.com/YU3oDrk1Bd
— Aaron Jackson (@RotationReport) October 3, 2024

Feels good to be a U.S. investor

👇 pic.twitter.com/YoFFWz5JOT
— Matt Cerminaro (@mattcerminaro) October 3, 2024

You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!

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