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Todayās Summary
Tuesday, October 10, 2023
Indices:Ā Russell 2000Ā +1.14%Ā | NasdaqĀ +0.56%Ā | S&P 500Ā +0.52%Ā | DowĀ +0.40%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed higher for the second day. Utilities led, risingĀ +1.37%. Energy lagged but still inched upĀ +0.12%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fellĀ -0.47%Ā to $85.97 per barrel. Gold futures gainedĀ +0.59%Ā to $1,875 per oz.
Currencies:Ā The US Dollar Index closed lower for the fifth day, fallingĀ -0.28%Ā to $105.77.
Crypto: Bitcoin fellĀ -0.72%Ā to $27,395. Ethereum fellĀ -0.78%Ā to $1,568.
Volatility: The Volatility Index droppedĀ -3.79%Ā to 17.02.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.657%.
Here areĀ the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
The $VIX has always closed above 20 when the S&P 500 has sold off 7.8% or more
…until today.
The $VIX has only climbed to 19.78 in this drop, its smallest reaction on record to a stock drop this sharp pic.twitter.com/K4yzvE77hz
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) October 10, 2023
Todayās Chart of the Day was shared by Callie Cox (@callieabost). The S&P 500 pulled back as much asĀ -7.8%Ā from its late July peak (on a closing basis). Meanwhile, the $VIX has remained relatively calm during this pullback, reaching just 19.78 at its closing highs last Tuesday.Ā Callie points out that the $VIX has never seen a more muted response to a pullback of this magnitude.Ā In a blog post today,Ā anotherĀ brilliant analyst, Chris Ciovacco, examined this data point further. He looked at the worst declines in the S&P 500 over the past three decades and found thatĀ the $VIX is usually above 31 after an initial -7.83% drop. While this is just one of many data points to consider, itās further evidence that weāre in a normal correction versus a bear market decline.
Quote of the Day
āIgnorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge.āĀ
– Charles Darwin
Top Links
The Stock Market NEEDS To Do This Next – CappThesis
Frank Cappelleri breaks down the technical outlook for the S&P 500.
This Ratio Screams Risk On – All Star Charts
Alphonso Depablos examines the bullish message from the Discretionary/Staples ratio.
VIX Not Forecasting A Debt Crisis, Recession, or Bear Market – Ciovacco Capital Management
Chris Ciovacco looks at how the $VIX has performed amid the recent pullback.
Aerospace and Defense Take Off – Bespoke
Bespoke points out Aerospace and Defense stocks have thrusted higher in recent days.
Technical Tuesdays š with The Chart Report – Twitter Spaces
Here’s the recording of our discussion on Twitter Spaces from earlier today, in case you missed it.
Top Tweets
Daily Mkt Mood: Mixed
1. Stocks up for a third day
2. Bonds rally significantly
3. Dollar down for fifth day
4. Oil down, Nat gas up
5. $VIX inCharts suggest 3-day $SPX rally will continue for another 1-3 weeks before sellers likely step back in.
10-yr yld, R2K key tells.
— Abigail Doolittle (@TheChartress) October 10, 2023
Strong 3-day rally on $SPX. As you can see, you typically get these moves coming off intermediate lows. If they exceed these levels, they tend to mark peaks during correction rallies (see 2022) pic.twitter.com/jMBixwwty1
— David Settle, CMT (@davidsettle42) October 10, 2023
$SPY penetrated a gap, reversed a bit intraday pic.twitter.com/W53sVSDiZg
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT š (@MikeZaccardi) October 10, 2023
Zweig Breadth Thrust on watch!
If above that line on October 17th, the 2nd ZBT will signal.
There has never been 2 signals in the same calendar year.
1st signal still in effect from March 31. $SPX positive 6 and 12 months later (including 2022) 100% of time.$SPY $NYA $QQQ pic.twitter.com/2YeTMd2hU2
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 10, 2023
Welcome to the Year-End Rally. The data is showing the bears are back, claiming inflation, the fed or perhaps a war will send stocks much lower. We're taking the other side of that and buying stocks https://t.co/Jgx3JVbM05 pic.twitter.com/F0EQW7kkK5
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) October 10, 2023
Looking for a reason to be bullish in an election year?
Stocks do way better under a first-term President than they do under a lame duck President.
12.2% vs -0.4% to be precise.
Then take a look how poorly a midterm year does under a first-term Prez. Things are playing out. pic.twitter.com/enigbIZK8y
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 10, 2023
KBW Bank Index is trailing broader S&P 500 by more than 37% YTD ā¦ by far worst spread in history
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/BtjQ5FDb6B
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) October 10, 2023
Chinese equity indexes are hooking higher and reclaiming the lower bounds of their YTD ranges $MCHI pic.twitter.com/OzN8qMKVpb
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) October 10, 2023
It is very, very tough to be an emerging market bull through a strong-dollar regime$EEM $DXY pic.twitter.com/5eHLSM87zi
— Mike Singleton, CFA (@InvictusMacro) October 10, 2023
Dollar at an important spot$DXY pic.twitter.com/tdjQ3ccfY6
— David Rath, CMT, CFA (@DJwrath) October 10, 2023
Time to get a "handle" on the U.S. stock market $SPY $ES_F $SPX pic.twitter.com/Rp3Hwv55iV
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 10, 2023