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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, October 11th, 2022
Indices: Dow +0.12% | Russell 2000 +0.06% | S&P 500 -0.65% | Nasdaq 100 -1.24%
Sectors: 3 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Real Estate led, gaining +0.94%. Communications lagged dropping -1.87%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -1.95% to $89.35 per barrel. Gold futures rose +0.64% to $1,686 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index inched higher by +0.10%.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -0.66% to $19,005. Ethereum dropped -1.02% to $1,277.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield inched lower to 3.951%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
There is no such things as "down too much" when there are still sellers$META is less than 10% above the volume weighted average price it has traded at since its IPO 10 years ago. I would bet MOST people are losing money on the stock
Level of interest, at AVWAP IPO & prior low pic.twitter.com/amxGFbHaGR
— Brian Shannon, CMT (@alphatrends) October 11, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Brian Shannon (@alphatrends). It’s a monthly candlestick chart of the company formerly known as Facebook ($META). This stock was worth over a trillion dollars at its peak just 13 months ago, but it’s lost more than two-thirds of its value since then (-66%). Brian points out that it’s approaching a confluence of potential support around $119-$123. This level represents the 2018 lows and the VWAP from its IPO. You can think of the VWAP as the average cost basis for investors since its IPO in 2012. If $META fails to hold this key level, it would likely make matters worse, as underwater investors look to exit. Either way, keep an eye on how price behaves around this key level in the coming weeks.
Quote of the Day
“The most important single factor in shaping security markets is public psychology.”
– Gerald Loeb
Top Links
So Much for the Postive Wealth Effect – Bespoke
Bespoke gives an update on where the major averages stand in relation to their pre-Covid highs.
Time to Buy the Fear? – HoneyStocks Charting
Sam McCallum examines where we are in the sentiment cycle.
Best Six Months Up 18-0 Midterm Years – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch points out that, since 1950, the S&P 500 has never been down over the six-month stretch between November of the midterm year and April of the pre-election year.
It’s Still About Finding What’s Less Bad – Research by Potomac
Dan Russo analyzes all 11 sectors of the S&P 500.
US Dollar Strength Has World on Edge – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble breaks down a long-term chart of the US Dollar Index.
Top Tweets
Since WWII, the S&P 500 finished the year down more than 20% only three times. 1972, 2002, and 2008.
This year could be number 4. (But I'd still say we have time for a nice year-end bounce)
The following year stocks gained 31.5%, 26.4%, and 23.5%.
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 11, 2022
? Up in the green, hit the gas
? Stuck in the yellow, approach with caution
? Down in the red, sit on the brakes pic.twitter.com/l8dbmuNSRi
— Grayson Roze (@GraysonRoze) October 11, 2022
$SPX Why people are still carrying on with the mantra that the bull market starting in 2009 is still intact is ridiculous. Nobody trades on these time frames. We might as well just draw a line back to the 1930s and proclaim the same thing. pic.twitter.com/pVwZMC0uSZ
— Jonathan Harrier, CMT (@jonathanharrier) October 11, 2022
NASDAQ 100 has undercut September 30th low and max drawdown is now worst since bear market during Global Financial Crisis … prior two bear markets (2018 and 2020) were much shorter-lived
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/OafDxdy420— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) October 11, 2022
Nasdaq 100 has lost a third of its value YTD pic.twitter.com/6FdVSHbbOS
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) October 11, 2022
The Nasdaq has entered elite company, joining the most miserable markets ever. pic.twitter.com/bGhARq9PkF
— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) October 11, 2022
Small-caps: above where they were in June, below where they were pre-COVID. $IWM pic.twitter.com/6mNFpj4KSy
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) October 11, 2022
Time to keep a close eye on small-caps. Still holding in critical zone… and taking the lead versus large-caps.
No predictions, but watching closely. #sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/nc70lLzewv— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) October 11, 2022
Transports rejected at resistance (old 2018 support)
This is an important level for a *lot* of reflationary exposures… Not a good omen $XTN pic.twitter.com/UhjdIe4di3
— Mike Singleton, CFA (@InvictusMacro) October 11, 2022
Bitcoin pivotal point in time on deck. not looking great $BTC.X pic.twitter.com/D9FjHvGZif
— ATMcharts (@ATMcharts) October 11, 2022
Which will it be?#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/ESlrFjsUSB
— Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) October 11, 2022
Do the Cathie Wood loyalists have paper?or diamond? hands here at the line in the sand?$ARKK pic.twitter.com/ajdtXAZoXY
— Greg Rieben (@gregrieben) October 11, 2022
The first Ark Invest product was launched 7 years ago. Here's $ARKK performance vs $QQQ since inception. Ark Funds' AUM is still 14Bn, which is about $100M in annual management fees. pic.twitter.com/qIRZWxOOX0
— ivanhoff.com (@ivanhoff2) October 11, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!