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Today’s Summary
Wednesday, October 11, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq 100 +0.72% | S&P 500 +0.43% | Dow +0.19% | Russell 2000 -0.15%
Sectors: 8 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Real Estate led, rising +2.02%. Energy lagged, falling -1.29%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures dropped -2.88% to $83.49 per barrel. Gold futures gained +0.64% to $1,887 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell for the sixth day, inching lower by just -0.05% to $105.72.
Crypto: Bitcoin dropped -1.90% to $26,874. Ethereum was flat at $1,567.
Volatility: The Volatility Index dropped -5.41% to 16.10.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.560%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
$DXY My focus is on the horizontal support at 105.5 pic.twitter.com/uDsmx9q39y
— Aksel Kibar, CMT (@TechCharts) October 11, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Aksel Kibar (@TechCharts). The US Dollar ($DXY) is on a 6-day losing streak, after snapping an 11-week winning streak last week. Stocks have caught a bid in reaction to the Dollar’s newfound weakness. However, we’re about to find out whether this was just a well-deserved pullback within an uptrend or the start of a more significant decline for the Dollar. Aksel points out that $DXY is testing the January/March highs, around $105. $DXY cleared this resistance level last month, but if it doesn’t turn into support soon, it will mark a failed breakout. Failed breakouts are often followed by sharp moves lower, which in this case, would be very beneficial for stocks. On the other hand, stock market bulls can forget about a year-end rally if $DXY inflects higher at this pivotal level.
Quote of the Day
“You need the right balance between data and gut feeling.”
– Toto Wolff
Top Links
The S&P 500 Hasn’t Done This in 14 Years – Schaeffer’s Investment Research
Rocky White examines how the S&P 500 has historically performed after going this long without an all-time high.
Stock Market Video Analysis 10/11/23 – AlphaTrends
Brian Shannon analyzes recent price action and highlights some key levels to watch in the coming days.
What’s Behind the Underperformance of the Average Stock? – Grindstone Intelligence
Austin Harrison looks at the continued lack of breadth.
These are Not Random Moves – All Star Charts
JC Parets checks on the relationship between Stocks and the US Dollar Index ($DXY).
Top Tweets
This $SPY gap continues to be an issue for the market. Inside day today that I'm sure CPI will cure tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/CPuNSBcSrg
— Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA 🇨🇦 (@MichaelNaussCMT) October 11, 2023
$ES_F pic.twitter.com/M7jSi9Zd6A
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 (@FusionptCapital) October 11, 2023
With the leadership rotation back and forward between Energy & Tech, and the continued weakness in Staples & Utilities, Offensive sectors have continued to lead Defensive sectors. pic.twitter.com/SzC8cGdeT5
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) October 11, 2023
The VIX didn't get above 20, how could stocks bottom they tell us?
Remember, there can be periods of yrs the VIX trades <20 and those were some solid years for stocks.
Are we entering a new low VIX regime? If so, then it'd be perfectly normal not to see a 20 plus spike. pic.twitter.com/1SDVpJJyw4
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 11, 2023
Fearful corrections toward 200dma are normal fare after price momentum confirms a cyclical advance. Different this time? pic.twitter.com/xHmJAiNp0w
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) October 11, 2023
Consensus Inc bulls in the bottom decile for the first time in almost a year. $spx pic.twitter.com/7QBZFii9QK
— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) October 11, 2023
$SPX Bullish Percent Index registered a bullish signal after pushing below and then back above the 30% level. There have been head fakes before (May 2022) but this usually is a strong indicator of an upside reversal. $BPSPX pic.twitter.com/837CNt6LLE
— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) October 11, 2023
Say hello to the new leaders $XLC
The communications SPDR is up 44% YTD, making it the only sector to outperform $NDX
When benchmarked against $SPX, it has more than tripled the performance of the broader market this year pic.twitter.com/pZxzytFFLK
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) October 11, 2023
How about the 50-day moving average of the comm services/S&P 500 ratio? From resistance to support.$XLC $SPY pic.twitter.com/v6SNzMP2qh
— David Rath, CMT, CFA (@DJwrath) October 11, 2023
🇺🇸As the conflict escalates, 10y UST yields are testing support at 4.56%, which, if broken, might take them as low as 4.37%. Then, the question is whether they'll adjust lower starting a downtrend or rebound.
💡Remember: events are unfolding on the back of weak bond sentiment pic.twitter.com/UQ570u9BaW— Althea Spinozzi (@Altheaspinozzi) October 11, 2023
Interest-rate Parity in action. $UUP $TNX pic.twitter.com/RTILTGhu3M
— Brian G (@alphacharts) October 11, 2023
Crypto bros everywhere BEGGING #Bitcoin not to roll over here… H&S forming?😬 pic.twitter.com/26TsjIzGoj
— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) October 11, 2023
Looks like A&F is about to announce that they're selling Ozempic at their retail stores. 😁 pic.twitter.com/X27ZQGVI4x
— Greg Rieben (@gregrieben) October 11, 2023