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Today’s Summary
Thursday, October 12, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq -0.37% | Dow -0.51% | S&P 500 -0.62% | Russell 2000 -2.20%
Sectors: 2 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, inching up +0.11%. Utilities lagged, falling -1.54%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -0.69% to $82.91 per barrel. Gold futures fell –0.23% to $1,883 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index gained +0.81% to $106.58.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -0.44% to $26,756. Ethereum dropped -1.72% to $1,540.
Volatility: The Volatility Index rose +3.73% to 16.70.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.701%
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
New cycle low for the Micro-caps.$IWC $RUT $RUA pic.twitter.com/ougbAi2xDX
— Shane C. Murphy (@murphycharts) October 12, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Shane Murphy (@MurphyCharts). The S&P 500 bottomed exactly one year ago today, with October 12th, 2022 marking the end of the bear market… for Large-Caps. Meanwhile, Smaller-Cap indices have fallen deeper into bear market territory. Shane points out that Micro-Caps ($IWC) made a new cycle low today, closing at its lowest since November 2020. As of today, $IWC is down nearly -40% from its March 2021 highs. If you define a bear market as a -20% drawdown, what do you call a market that’s down twice as much? $IWC attempted to reclaim $100 earlier in the week, but this former support level has turned into resistance. It would be very bullish if $IWC reclaimed $100, as this would mark a failed breakdown, but that’s proving to be a difficult task.
Quote of the Day
“The greatest value of a picture is when it forces us to notice what we never expected to see.”
– John Tukey
Top Links
The Bull Market Turns One – Carson Group
Ryan Detrick looks at how the S&P 500 has performed since bottoming exactly one year ago.
Bulls Pile Back In – Bespoke
Bespoke breaks down the results of the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.
Will Treasury Bonds Crisis Turn Into Opportunity This Month? Bond Bulls Praying Support Holds! – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble highlights a potential support level for the Treasury Bond ETF, $TLT.
All Eyes on The Banks – All Star Charts
Alfonso Depablos breaks down the technical outlook for Banks as they kick off earnings season tomorrow.
Superstitious or Not, Friday 13th in October Has Been Historically Bearish
Jeff Hirsch examines how stocks have historically performed on Friday the 13th.
Top Tweets
Daily Mkt Mood: Bearish Reversal
1. Stocks down
2. Bonds down
3. Oil down
4. Dollar up
5. $VIX upResistance is holding on $SPX $NDX as $IWM $RSP break down on Death Crosses.
Unless there’s a big shift in direction on earnings, could be heading back to risk-off.
— Abigail Doolittle (@TheChartress) October 12, 2023
Last week, the S&P 500 bounced off its 200-dma and now it's close to hitting its 50-dma. I'm no technician but it seems more than a coincidence these things happen. pic.twitter.com/eWoHR6uBSQ
— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) October 12, 2023
$SPX has been below its 50MA for 19 days – longest in a year. $XLC & $XLK crossed above in the last week, whilst $XLP & $XLRE have been below since August: pic.twitter.com/gJyXlLUl6A
— Optuma (@Optuma) October 12, 2023
$SPX hitting gap resistance with a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pic.twitter.com/mDcuIxnNWp
— Dash, CMT, CFP (@Dash_charts) October 12, 2023
$SPX Test #1… pic.twitter.com/YnNRohmjlH
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) October 12, 2023
Likely path forward for the S&P 500 $SPX:
Retest the August 2022 highs
ReboundKeep it simple. pic.twitter.com/7AZL7zeuTm
— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) October 12, 2023
$IWM Monthly. A history of rug pulls. pic.twitter.com/vhXicOfJSs
— Brian G (@alphacharts) October 12, 2023
$IWC microcraps 40% drawdown since early 2021.. with lots of inflation since then. Dreadful real return. pic.twitter.com/Mt1Lns4Dyk
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) October 12, 2023
textbook of what the bulls dont really want to see…
Big body bounce at price support and the 20d expo MAV as well as an RSI pullback just at the 50 mark within a bullish box…
🤯 pic.twitter.com/fIXMuKKlkR— conradseric, CMT, CAIA, CEFA (@conradseric) October 12, 2023
$DXY #DXY #USDollar Retest of the previous support zone which is now acting as potential resistance. pic.twitter.com/AsPdmzLP81
— Jake Wujastyk (@Jake__Wujastyk) October 12, 2023
A case can be made for shorting $SLV
Mid-East rally has taken price back up to very heavy resistance of lower boundary of descending triangle
Now, today could become an engulfing sweeping reversal for decline to 17.22 target pic.twitter.com/YJBwlT1iZb— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 12, 2023
Tomorrow is #Friday13th and it is October!
Turns out, this day does quite poorly in the spooky month.
This is mainly due to the 6.1% drop in 1989 and the breakdown on the UAL LBO deal. pic.twitter.com/GSSUB3w9JQ
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 12, 2023