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Todayβs Summary
Friday, October 13, 2023
Indices: Dow +0.12% | S&P 500 -0.50% | Nasdaq -1.24% | Russell 2000 -1.48%
Sectors: 5 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led by a wide margin, gaining +2.20%. Consumer Discretionary lagged, falling -1.47%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures jumped +5.77% to $87.69 per barrel. Gold futures had their best day since December, surging +3.11% to $1,942 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index inched higher by +0.09% to $106.67.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +0.41% to $26,867. Ethereum gained +0.82% to $1,552.
Volatility: The Volatility Index jumped +15.63% to 19.31.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.612%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Gold is doing what it's supposed to do when the RSI falls below 20. pic.twitter.com/bhnGuRzfJo
— Dean Christians, CMT (@DeanChristians) October 13, 2023
Todayβs Chart of the Day was shared by Dean Christians (@DeanChristians). Gold futures had their best day since December 2022 today, surging +3.11%. It gained +5.22% overall this week, closing at $1,942 per oz. Itβs rebounding off a seven-month low after snapping a nine-day losing streak last Friday. Dean points out that momentum got extremely oversold last week, with RSI hitting a multi-year low below 20. According to the data table, Gold tends to have strong annualized returns after RSI falls below 20. Record highs in 2023 seemed impossible for Gold after it fumbled its third breakout attempt in May. However, record highs are within reach after this weekβs reversal, as the yellow metal is just β6% below its peak.
Quote of the Day
βThereβs no fever like gold fever.β
β Richard Russell
Trendlines > Headlines
The latest episode of Trendlines over Headlines is out! This week, Jeff Hirsch of The Stock Traders Almanac joins us to discuss Seasonality, the 4-year Presidential Cycle, Crypto, and more!β |
Top Links
Bull Market Check-Up β LPL Financial Research
Adam Turnquist looks at how the S&P 500 has performed since the bottoming last October.
The DANGER of a Long Winning Streak β CappThesis
Frank Cappelleri examines some of the short-term patterns in the S&P 500.
The Dollar Playbook β All Star Charts
Alfonso Depablos highlights the relationship between the Stocks and the US Dollar Index.
Stock Market Analysis 10/13/23 β AlphaTrends
Brian Shannon recaps this weekβs price action and highlights key levels to watch next week.
Top Tweets
One for the bears. For only the third time in history, the following happened.
VIX up > 15%
Gold up > 3%
Crude Oil up > 5%Dates:
9/17/08
9/17/01
10/13/23— Dean Christians, CMT (@DeanChristians) October 13, 2023
You would not guess macro news and geopolitical stress looking at the recent candles…
The index pullback is now restign at the convergence of the 30 weeks MAV and the August 2022 high support. pic.twitter.com/Dadi7wx6Nf— conradseric, CMT, CAIA, CEFA (@conradseric) October 14, 2023
Pretty much all of TA fintwit this week…Not yet. $QQQ pic.twitter.com/veXU7DkujZ
— Greg Rieben (@gregrieben) October 13, 2023
Still below 34000 and the (flat) 200 day MA…$DJI $DJIA $DIA pic.twitter.com/3wgPuQO87s
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) October 13, 2023
Any guesses as to when this picks a direction?
We are 18 months in at this point.$IWM pic.twitter.com/HJfped8OhI
— David Rath, CMT, CFA (@DJwrath) October 13, 2023
Micro Caps hit their lowest level yesterday since Nov. 2020.$IWC pic.twitter.com/ly0Ba8noxJ
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) October 13, 2023
819 days = 117 weeks = 27 months… UNCH
The S&P 500 is exactly where it was 2 years and 3 months ago on Friday, July 16, 2021.
819 days and counting
Via @CarterBWorth pic.twitter.com/9me4RGojMN
— Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) October 13, 2023
The $VIX gauges are…moving?
This is new.$VIX climbed 2.5 points today, its largest jump on an S&P drop of 0.5% or less since Feb 2022 (and before that, Dec 2020) pic.twitter.com/6Rf9i69ot5
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) October 13, 2023
and 2nd best day of the year for oil $CL_F $USO @KoyfinCharts https://t.co/z9q1eLJnr9 pic.twitter.com/opa9cY0bwQ
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT π (@MikeZaccardi) October 14, 2023
Monster rally into resistance for #Gold – all eyes on this $1930 zone heading into next week. pic.twitter.com/YIWrN0rWdj
— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) October 13, 2023
Managed money is back to a largish net short position in gold.
The only other times they bet like this, gold:
βοΈ Rallied 30%
βοΈ Rallied 32%
βοΈ Rallied 26%$gld pic.twitter.com/fkmROGqABZ— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) October 13, 2023
Gold continues to have trouble near $2k, but if/once this breaks out, it could lead to a powerful multi-year rally.
We aren't gold bugs/or end of world recessioners, but we do have a little bit of gold in our tactical models.
It held up well in the face of a huge USD rally. pic.twitter.com/RGrhiSnVbS
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 13, 2023
I've been watching #gold for more than 20 years and I can't quite recall a week like the one we just finished.
Yes, there were some wild reversals in September/October 2008, but this week just hit different.
Did we just witness a major failed breakdown on the weekly chart? π pic.twitter.com/JzUgWUeljr
— CEO Technician (@CEOTechnician) October 13, 2023