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Today’s Summary
Wednesday, October 14th, 2020
Indices: US Stocks closed lower in today’s session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipping 166 points or 0.58%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.66% and 0.80%, respectively. Small-Caps underperformed with the Russell 2000 dropping 0.93%.
Sectors: Industrial led, gaining 0.56%. Communications lagged, falling 1.19%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures moved higher by 2.26% to $39.82 per barrel. Gold futures rose 0.68% to $1,907 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index slipped 0.14%.
Interest Rates: The 10-year US Treasury yield was unchanged at 0.726%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
#Semiconductors — When S&P Semiconductor Index is up between 25% and 50% through mid-October, typically the strong momentum continues [[6-months forward avg. 35.47% 6 up / 0 down]]…… pic.twitter.com/AbARSmMmKh
— Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) October 14, 2020
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap). It’s a chart of the Semiconductor index over the past three decades. The Semiconductor index is currently up more than 30% year-to-date. Nautilus points out that when this index has been up 25-50% through mid-October, the strong momentum has typically pushed the index even higher in the following months. Looking at the forward returns following the past six occurrences, the index was higher 1-month, 3-months, and 6-months later almost every single time. The only exception was in 2009 when it fell 2.59% one month after the signal. As you might know, Semiconductors are found in almost every electronic device. Due to their widespread use, this industry group is a leading indicator for both the stock market and the economy. Continued strength from the Semiconductor index in the coming months would support the bull case for stocks.
Quote of the Day
“I always believe that prices move first and fundamentals come second.”
– Paul Tudor Jones
Top Links
What Now? – The Rotation Report
Aaron Jackson highlights a few noteworthy charts to keep an eye on in the near-term.
An Analysis of Trends in USD, S&P500, and Gold – Fibonacci.com
Tarek Saab takes a look at some of the macro technical trends across the markets.
Let’s Get Technical – BNY Melon
In this podcast, Chris Verrone of Strategas Research Partners, and Liz Young discuss how technical analysis has helped investors navigate the volatile market we’ve seen this year.
Time to Get ON This One. – All Star Charts
Sean McLaughlin outlines an options trade on a Semiconductor name that’s breaking out to all-time highs – ON Semiconductor, $ON.
Mid-Week Thoughts – Chaikin Analytics
In this quick video, Dan Russo offers his thoughts on Small-Caps, Breadth, Precious Metals, and more.
Top Tweets
The stock market is swangin’ in true October fashion.
The S&P 500 has moved at least 0.5% for 11 straight trading days (since Sep. 29).
That’s the longest streak since April, and fourth-longest since October 2011 ?
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) October 14, 2020
Kinda feels more like a profit taking day versus the beginning of a trend on the $SPY.
I could be wrong, but it's only a 2-day pullback at this point and it's still fairly shallow.
Potential support @ 340 on the daily chart should the selling continue.#StockMarket pic.twitter.com/0mzdr9tLkq
— Keith ? (@JackDamn) October 14, 2020
$SPY – Some context for 2 consecutive down days after a 20 day closing high since 2016. The left skew is so bad that even though stocks are higher 60% of the time in 3 days, the average return is negative. $QQQ $IWM pic.twitter.com/6BGTyrh8en
— Pivot Analytics ? (@pivotanalytics) October 14, 2020
Consumer Discretionary $XLY vs Consumer Staples $XLP still one for the bullish camp pic.twitter.com/mkjP7NiGfi
— Grant Hawkridge (@granthawkridge) October 14, 2020
$TSLA pic.twitter.com/yLISOnc7nY
— Bhagyashree Urdhwareshe, CMT (@sunsofttech) October 14, 2020
Island reversal on Treasuries?$TLT pic.twitter.com/Zlz3XDU9WZ
— David Zarling, CMT (@AdaptivCharts) October 14, 2020
$GXC China …Breaking above the highs from January 2018. pic.twitter.com/iRwi9q2L9N
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) October 14, 2020
$BAC fails 4 times exactly at the 200-sma –
almost as if moving averages can provide support and resistance…. pic.twitter.com/NqwvpffzIw
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) October 13, 2020
Bearish engulfing patterns at the 200-day moving average are not bullish. $JPM pic.twitter.com/opHmdsiw8m
— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) October 14, 2020
so what do we think about this? pic.twitter.com/vv4CHJrhQa
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) October 14, 2020
Total returns (w/dividends) since the end of October 2007:
Goldman Sachs +2.9%
Wells Fargo -0.2%
(the S&P 500 is up almost 200% in this time) pic.twitter.com/RUG9H2UGnn
— Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) October 14, 2020