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Todayās Summary
Monday, October 16, 2023
Indices:Ā Russell 2000Ā +1.59%Ā |Ā NasdaqĀ +1.18%Ā | S&P 500Ā +1.06%Ā |Ā DowĀ +0.93%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed higher. Consumer Discretionary led, gainingĀ +1.62%. Energy lagged, but still roseĀ +0.67%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fellĀ -1.17%Ā to $86.66 per barrel. Gold futures fellĀ –0.37%Ā to $1,934 per oz.
Currencies:Ā The US Dollar Index droppedĀ -0.43%Ā to $106.21.
Crypto: Bitcoin roseĀ +4.95%Ā to $28,518. Ethereum gainedĀ +2.72%Ā to $1,600.
Volatility: The Volatility Index droppedĀ -10.93%Ā to 17.20.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.708%.
Here areĀ the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Do something pic.twitter.com/kgTSuW5CAL
— Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA šØš¦ (@MichaelNaussCMT) October 16, 2023
Todayās Chart of the Day was shared by Michael Nauss (@MichaelNaussCMT). The S&P 500 ($SPY) kicked off the week on a positive note, risingĀ +1.05%Ā on Monday. Despite the upbeat start, $SPY is essentially unchanged since Wednesday. Michael points out that itās stalling as it attempts to fill the gap created on September 21st. The reversal ran out of steam last Tuesday when $SPY initially drilled into this gap. A close above $439 would do the trick and open the door for a test of the July highs, around $459. It would also invalidate the bearish Head & Shoulders pattern formed over the Summer. This continues to be the next item on the bullās to-do list.Ā Mind the gap this week!Ā
Quote of the Day
āThe future belongs to those who see possibilities before they become obvious.ā
ā John Scully
Trendlines > Headlines
The latest episode of Trendlines over Headlines is out!
This week,Ā Jeff Hirsch ofĀ The Stock Traders AlmanacĀ joins us to discuss Seasonality, the 4-year Presidential Cycle, Crypto, and more!
Top Links
Happy Anniversary Bull Market – All Star Charts
JC Parets looks at how stocks have performed since the S&P 500 bottomed last October.
October Historically a Good Time to Buy – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch points out that the Nasdaq has a solid track record in Q4.
2023 vs. 1987 – Ed Clissold
Ed Clissold examines the similarities and differences between 1987 and 2023 in this Twitter thread.
Near Record Volatility of Bonds Relative to Stocks – Bespoke
Bespoke compares $TLT volatility to $SPY volatility.
Main Street Crossing – The Weekly Trend
In this podcast, David Zarling and Ian McMillan discuss some of the noteworthy technical developments across the markets.
Top Tweets
$SPX Label it however you want…
I'm going with "progress." pic.twitter.com/tdpt0JCquQ
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) October 16, 2023
$SPY Lots of things for chart-watchers to look at these days.
Stocks rallied off of the VWAP from the March low that coincided with the August 2022 swing high.
Now a declining 50-day and swing high VWAP just above. pic.twitter.com/1MIP4LdJSE
— Tyler Lovingood (@Tyler_Lovingood) October 16, 2023
$QQQ (weekly chart) Friday was pretty discouraging but today is another day. The Big Picture – keep it in mind. You will hear a loud whooshing sound when that DTL is broken to the upside. That being money being sucked back into the Mkt from the naysayers on the sidelines. pic.twitter.com/yszduKNKo7
— Alan Cohen (@al_xdpg) October 16, 2023
Best day for small caps $IWM in more than 3 months @KoyfinCharts https://t.co/z9q1eLJnr9 pic.twitter.com/nq8k6xb37w
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT š (@MikeZaccardi) October 16, 2023
I am not necessarily touting Small-Caps and seasonality IS NOT a āroadmapā ā it is only an average of past results. Still, it seems like a time to be paying close attention. @sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/UihpBMfBis
— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) October 16, 2023
Look how closely micro-caps $IWC and the 10-year Treasury yield (inverted) have tracked over the last year: pic.twitter.com/wVHpnTTHUE
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) October 16, 2023
XRT: Hit deep oversold, starting to recover from well-defined support, overall sentiment is awful, and seasonals are favorable from now until Black Friday. $XRT #technicalanalysis #trendfollowing #cmtassociation #ETF pic.twitter.com/8TXFbnQlGp
— John Kolovos, CMT, CFA (@John_Kolovos) October 16, 2023
Just passed 1-year mark for S&P 500ās Oct 2022 low, yet only 2% of members are making new one-year high ā¦ vastly different compared to bear markets that ended in 2002 and 2009, when >20% of members were making new highs
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/MgJ90WylRV
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) October 16, 2023
Nice chart from @scottcharts on gold.
Safe to say previous times sentiment was this negative sparked rallies.
Will this time be different? pic.twitter.com/UtoHIS2bim
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 16, 2023
This trendline has been an issue for gold$GLD $GC_F pic.twitter.com/8ekOOxlcAZ
— David Rath, CMT, CFA (@DJwrath) October 16, 2023
Sentiment check on bonds pic.twitter.com/ToIJR4X1gK
— Eliant Capital #4 (@eliant_capital) October 16, 2023