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Today’s Summary
Monday, October 17th, 2022
Indices: Nasdaq 100 +3.47% | Russell 2000 +3.17% | S&P 500 +2.65% | Dow +1.86%
Sectors: All 11 sectors gained more than +1%. Consumer Discretionary led, rising +4.06%. Consumer Staples lagged but still gained +1.08%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures were flat (+0.07%) and continue to trade at $85.67 per barrel. Gold futures rose +0.92% to $1,664 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index dropped -1.07%.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +1.38% to $19,530. Ethereum rose +1.99% to $1,332.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield inched lower to 4.015%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
That pesky 20-day MA is only the first hurdle… $SPX pic.twitter.com/9WCTg541Uk
— Michael Turvey (@MikeTurvey_TDA) October 17, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Michael Turvey (@MikeTurvey_TDA). The S&P 500 rose +2.65% today, marking the fifth-best day in the past two years. However, one day does not make a trend, and both short-term and long-term trends remain lower. Michael points out that the first hurdle will be the 20-day moving average. The S&P has been rejected at this short-term moving average four times in the past two months. A close above the 20-day would signify the end of the downtrend we’ve been in since August, and the start of a potential leg higher. Will the fifth time be the charm?
Quote of the Day
“The pleasures of youth are the pains of old age,
just as the pleasures of old age are the pains of youth.”
– Dee Hock
Top Links
Flip Flopping Like a Politician – Bespoke
Bespoke takes a look at the large daily moves we’ve had in the S&P 500 recently.
October Monthly Options Expiration Week: S&P 500 Up 13 of the Last 14 – Almanac Trader
Seasonality expert, Jeff Hirsch examines how the major indices have historically performed around October options expiration.
October – The Weekly Trend
In this podcast, David Zarling and Ian McMillan discuss some of the most important technical developments out there right now.
“Don’t Fight Papa Dow”, Is How I Learned It – All Star Charts
JC Parets points out that the Dow is respecting its pre-Covid highs as it attempts to close higher for the third consecutive week for the first time this year.
Trendlines over Headlines with Special Guest, Frank Cappelleri – The Chart Report
Catch up on the latest episode of Trendlines over Headlines! This week, Frank Cappelleri of CappThesis joins us to offer his perspective on the S&P 500, Energy Stocks, Interest Rates, and more!
Top Tweets
— Stocktwits (@Stocktwits) October 17, 2022
Just how rare is a 3 day pattern of:
+2% or more
-2% or less
+2% or moreFor $SPY?
Here's all we got:
10/17/2022*
3/30/2020
3/17/2020
3/4/2020
8/11/2011
12/5/2008— Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) October 17, 2022
If it holds, today will be only the 6th time the $SPX has had 3 consecutive days of +2.5%, -2%, & +2.5% – and 3 of those were in March 2020. Currently the $VIX is at 31 – the lowest value of the previous 5 occasions: pic.twitter.com/ZyAX4O1ING
— Optuma (@Optuma) October 17, 2022
The S&P 500 is on track to be up for only the fifth time in the past 20 days.
The smallest daily gain among the prior four up days: 1.97%. pic.twitter.com/ghQN2c0tQA
— Michael Santoli (@michaelsantoli) October 17, 2022
The S&P 500 has declined 28% from its intraday high of 4818 on January 4 to its intraday low of 3492 last Thursday. Below, a history of all drawdowns. pic.twitter.com/Ggiz8uXbCl
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) October 17, 2022
#RTY_F, 1d
Unlike DJ, NDX & SPX, the Russell index DID NOT make a new low: the June 1640 low held 2 times in Sep and Oct.
The Russell was the first to peak among the indices in 2021 and now it is showing relative strength.
Bear market continues ONY if RTY drops below 1640. pic.twitter.com/zuJM4J3AIF
— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) October 17, 2022
Interesting that Russell 2000 (orange) has not fallen below its June 16th low, while S&P 500 (blue), NASDAQ (white), and NASDAQ 100 (purple) all have
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/ISnsRS7OUX— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) October 17, 2022
After testing the $35 level 9 times, the VIX is at a pivotal point on which relies the future of the entire stock market.
Bullish: VIX stays below the critical 35 level
Bearish: VIX spikes above 35, coincides with major stock market decline.$VIX #volatility $SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/MUgZsWevY0
— Ultimate Research (@ULTstocks) October 17, 2022
What's the bond market telling us?$SPX $NDX $IEI $HYG pic.twitter.com/x72mcilfKi
— Shane C. Murphy (@murphycharts) October 17, 2022
Will Treasurys break their 11-week losing streak? $GOVT pic.twitter.com/yZXtbbr0l1
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) October 17, 2022
Persistent run-ups. $TNX pic.twitter.com/Kj32ok9Xji
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) October 17, 2022
What you think a bear market bottom looks like
vs.
What a bear market bottom actually looks like
(it's not as obvious as you think?) pic.twitter.com/htbtAHsLgq
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) October 17, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!