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Today’s Summary
Wednesday, October 18, 2023
Indices: Dow -0.98% | S&P 500 -1.34% | Nasdaq -1.41% | Russell 2000 -2.11%
Sectors: 2 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, gaining +0.91%. Materials lagged, dropping -2.59%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +0.70% to $87.27 per barrel. Gold futures gained +1.68% to $1,968 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.35% $106.57.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -0.28% to $28,328. Ethereum was flat at $1,564.
Volatility: The Volatility Index rose +7.38% to 19.21.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a new multi-year high of 4.917%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
NVIDIA $NVDA is now trending down towards the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern. Have a look: pic.twitter.com/yrS1RKs5Qq
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) October 18, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Bespoke (@bespokeinvest). Nvidia ($NVDA) is up a whopping +189% year-to-date, making it the best-performing stock in the S&P 500. However, many have pointed out that it’s formed a Head and Shoulders top. It peaked in late August and formed the right shoulder last week. This bearish pattern will be confirmed if price closes below the neckline, around $400. Using the height of this pattern, a measured move price target suggests a ~20% decline to retest the breakout level, around $330. $NVDA gapped above $330 after its earnings report in May, and it hasn’t touched the gap since. That breakout in May kicked off the entire AI frenzy, but $NVDA could give it all back if it confirms this bearish pattern.
Quote of the Day
“Bulls make money,
bears make money,
pigs get slaughtered.”
– Wall Street Adage
Trendlines > Headlines
The latest episode of Trendlines over Headlines is out!
This week, Jeff Hirsch of The Stock Traders Almanac joins us to discuss Seasonality, the 4-year Presidential Cycle, Crypto, and more!
Top Links
Nvidia Vulnerable? – Nautilus Research
Nautilus Research looks at a potential reversal forming in $NVDA.
Can the Rebound in Stocks Continue? – LPL Financial Research
Adam Turnquist examines the outlook for stocks in the coming weeks.
Is It Time For Utilities Stocks to Stop Stinking Up the Joint? – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble points out that the Utilities sector ($XLU) is testing support after a waterfall decline.
ETFs & Markets with Todd Sohn – Strategas
In this quick video, Todd Sohn highlights the growing concentration risk in the S&P 500 from the Magnificent 7.
Gold: Failed Breakout or Hard Retest? – All Star Charts
After its recent reversal, Ian Culley looks at what could be next for Gold.
Top Tweets
Daily Mkt Mood: Mixed/Risk-Off
1. Stocks down >1%
2. Yields up
3. Oil up
4. $VIX at 19/20
5. Ugly last half hourRising yields truly in play as much of yield curve near/above 5%.
Oil may be setting up for fast $5-10 move up/down, $OVX elevated.
Big tech EPS kicking off w/…
— Abigail Doolittle (@TheChartress) October 18, 2023
The S&P 500 fell 1.3% today, the 24th daily decline of 1% or more this year. Seems like a lot but is actually quite normal (the average year since 1928 has 30 such declines) and is mild compared to what investors experienced in 2022 (63 large down days). $SPX pic.twitter.com/ySnf0Kb6jd
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) October 18, 2023
The S&P 500 has closed between its 50- and 200-dma every day for the last month. pic.twitter.com/tNDXyMMquf
— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) October 18, 2023
The DOW wishy-washy play with its 200d MAV. pic.twitter.com/YdUhWIz1VF
— conradseric, CMT, CAIA, CEFA (@conradseric) October 18, 2023
Lot's of talk on financial media about the strong seasonal 4th quarter rally in U.S. equities. Until proven wrong, I also anticipate same. Yet, when conventional wisdom gets slanted its good to look for the possible surprises. Possible descending triangle in $NQ_F pic.twitter.com/tWu5YvyDu0
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 18, 2023
$IWC microcraps – fresh 35-month low pic.twitter.com/ePo1ntSicW
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) October 18, 2023
The ~1980 area has been a tough spot to crack for Gold so far in 2023…$GC_F $GLD $IAU pic.twitter.com/r4KUpYrPRD
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) October 18, 2023
Today the U.S. 2-year & 10-year Treasuries hit their highest yields since 2006 & 2007, respectively: pic.twitter.com/qyOhSCqsxe
— MicroSectors (@msectors) October 18, 2023
$TNX #TNX The 10-year yield is nearing the 2006-2007 resistance. $SPY$SPX #SPY pic.twitter.com/7VDCB0WNe0
— Jake Wujastyk (@Jake__Wujastyk) October 18, 2023
$TLT closes at lowest price in more than 16 years 🚨 pic.twitter.com/IErskAOige
— Barchart (@Barchart) October 19, 2023
RSI bullish divergence – price made a new low but the RSI did not
something to keep an eye on in days ahead pic.twitter.com/Ujjas5Gmnu
— Christian Fromhertz 🇺🇸 (@cfromhertz) October 18, 2023
The bond market suggest inflation will remain elevated moving forward. New 52-week high for the TIP/IEF ratio. pic.twitter.com/UMtzQb99pp
— Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) October 18, 2023
It's similar to gravity. $ES_F https://t.co/DuXQRhbHYO pic.twitter.com/RadKcOoRDm
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 (@FusionptCapital) October 18, 2023