Powered By:
Todayās Summary
Thursday, October 26, 2023
Indices:Ā Russell 2000Ā +0.34%Ā | DowĀ -0.76%Ā | S&P 500Ā -1.18%Ā |Ā NasdaqĀ -1.89%
Sectors: 3 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Real Estate led, gainingĀ +2.11%. Communications lagged, droppingĀ -2.18%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures droppedĀ -2.55%Ā to $83.21 per barrel. Gold futures roseĀ +0.13%Ā to $1,997 per oz.
Currencies:Ā The US Dollar Index inched higher byĀ +0.07%Ā to $106.62.
Crypto: Bitcoin snapped a seven-day winning streak, fallingĀ -0.97%Ā to $34,165. Ethereum roseĀ +0.91%Ā to $1,804.
Volatility: The Volatility Index roseĀ +2.43%Ā to 20.67.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.847%.
Here areĀ the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
AAII bears highest since early May.
Not overly surprising given the weakness.
Be aware it is late Oct historically when things tend to turn around.
Looking at previous years up >10% at the end of June shows indigestion the past few months is normal.
But things turn here. pic.twitter.com/xg3YTJYf4F
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 26, 2023
Todayās Chart of the Day was shared by Ryan Detrick (@RyanDetrick). We highlighted this chartĀ two months ago, but it’s worth revisiting today. At the time, Ryan had pointed out that the S&P 500 tends to stall between August and November when it gainsĀ +10%Ā or more in the first six months of a year. The S&P 500 peaked right on schedule this year on July 31st andĀ shouldĀ bottom around now. The S&P 500 has correctedĀ -9.8%Ā since August. It’s been a pretty standard correction so far, andĀ sentiment has become much less bullishĀ since it began. With just three trading days left in October, time is running out for seasonality to save the bulls, but a durable low in the near term would certainly rhyme with history.
Quote of the Day
“Successful contrarian investing requires us to live with discomfort, for being “wrong” and alone. But bargains do not exist in the absence of fear.”
ā Robert Arnott
Top Links
Break Down – Trading Adventures
Andy Moss examines recent price action and the weakness in Mega-Caps.
SPY Bullish Scenario October 26 2023 – Not a Prediction -Alphatrends
In this video, Brian Shanon models some potential scenarios for the $SPY in the near term.
New Lows for S&P and Sentiment – Bespoke
Bespoke breaks down the results of the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.
Is Major Stock Market Index Warning Trouble Ahead? – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble looks at the weakness in the Equal-Weight S&P 500 ($RSP).
Top Tweets
Today was the first day that small caps closed positive on a day when the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both fell 1% or more since July 2020.
Before that, July 2008.
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) October 26, 2023
We might need a new name for the Magnificent 7… pic.twitter.com/4kNyLCsI0B
— Andrew O'Connell, CFA, FRM (@realpristinecap) October 26, 2023
$SPY #SPY $SPX Continues to get destroyed after the bear flag breakdown last week. pic.twitter.com/bmIkQzKWjb
— Jake Wujastyk (@Jake__Wujastyk) October 26, 2023
The $SPX's biggest pullbacks in 2023 have between -6.1% and -7.1%.
At today's low, the current drawdown hit -6.1%. pic.twitter.com/aCNhULBfpe
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) October 26, 2023
$SPX $SPY $ES_F pic.twitter.com/324YQOqn3C
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) October 26, 2023
Tale of 2 very different markets.
~S&P 500 Index~
šµ Market Cap Weight
š“ Equal WeightYTD, indexed to 100 $SPX $RSP pic.twitter.com/t555yCPa9k
— Shane C. Murphy (@murphycharts) October 27, 2023
Nearing 500 days since the small-cap Russell 2000 last made a 52-week high.
That's closing in on the worst drought in the index's history. pic.twitter.com/jFgvZabtem
— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) October 26, 2023
$IYT Trannies in freefall pic.twitter.com/iq7gWOGWrd
— FadeToBlack (@F4DE2BL4CK) October 27, 2023
$INTC +7% who saw that coming? pic.twitter.com/xkWaqwMPe5
— Tom Hearden (@followtheh) October 26, 2023
My gut:
If $TNX and/or (but preferably both) UUP reverse lower, the stock market can still surprise to the upside.
If NOT = more BAD. pic.twitter.com/eaihQ4EZsp— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) October 26, 2023
Head and shoulder being completed in $NVDA pic.twitter.com/fQgSCZ8Bmr
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 26, 2023
$NVDA closed below the neckline of its H&S pattern today – so now what?!
The last piece to the puzzle is waiting for Confirmation – which comes by price closing 3% below the neckline (~$395)
We wait for Confirmation!!! False moves can happen pic.twitter.com/e2cpVWCkDj
— Dash, CMT, CFP (@Dash_charts) October 26, 2023
When will this start trending? š$NVDA #nvidiaheadandshoulderstop pic.twitter.com/HOqD54dyBZ
— Greg Rieben (@gregrieben) October 26, 2023
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMTš§ (@FusionptCapital) October 26, 2023