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Todayās Summary
Tuesday, October 31, 2023
Indices:Ā Russell 2000Ā +0.91%Ā | NasdaqĀ +0.52%Ā | S&P 500Ā +0.65%Ā | DowĀ +0.38%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed higher for the second day. Real Estate led by a decent margin, gainingĀ +2.00%. Energy lagged, but still roseĀ +0.33%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fellĀ -1.57%Ā to a two-month low of $81.02 per barrel. Gold futures fellĀ –0.56%Ā to $1,994 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index roseĀ +0.54%Ā to $106.71.
Crypto: Bitcoin roseĀ +0.30%Ā to $34,600. Ethereum was flat at $1,811.
Volatility: The Volatility Index droppedĀ -8.16%Ā to 18.13.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.933%.
Here areĀ the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
the S&P 500 has fallen for three straight months
thatās the longest monthly losing streak since March 2020
[May 2022 was a very slight gain] pic.twitter.com/DbVwykw8CM
— Katie Greifeld š (@kgreifeld) October 31, 2023
Todayās Chart of the Day was shared by Katie Greifeld (@kgreifeld). Spooky month is in the books! The S&P 500 fell -2.2% in October, marking a three-month losing streak. Katie points out that this is the longest monthly losing streak since the pandemic in 2020. This three-month losing streak is coming after a five-month winning streak. If the S&P 500 continues lower in November, it will be the first four-month losing streak in over a decade. However, November has been positive 75% of the time for an average gain ofĀ +1.8%Ā over the pastĀ 20 years.
Quote of the Day
“Believe nothing you hear,Ā and only one half that you see.”
ā Edgar Allan Poe
Top Links
First Trading Day of November: DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Up 8 of Last 11 – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch examines how Stocks have historically performed on the first trading day of November.
Net Short No More – Bespoke
Bespoke looks at speculator positioning within S&P 500 futures.
Small-Caps Threaten to Break – All Star Charts
Alphonso Depablos points out that the Russell 2000 is skating on thin ice.
The Stock Market’s Missing Link: Upside Follow Through – CappThesis
Frank Cappelleri discusses what’s needed for a meaningful rebound in the S&P 500.
Technical Tuesdays š with The Chart Report – Twitter Spaces
Here’s the recording of our Twitter spaces from earlier today, in case you missed it.
Top Tweets
The $SPX looks like it will close out its third consecutive month's close. This will be the first three-month drop since the pandemic (through March 2020).
We haven't had a 4 straight month drop from the benchmark index in 12 years: pic.twitter.com/s6C4WGgs3O
— John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter) October 31, 2023
Stocks down in Aug, Sept, and Oct?
Pretty rare, but the good news is November has been higher all 5 times. December does fairly well also. pic.twitter.com/PgvpGc1x1X
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 31, 2023
"Stuck in the middle with you…" š¶
S&P 500 finds itself in between the AVWAP from the Oct '22 lows and its 200 day MA…$SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/4f6uoiqeNT
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) October 31, 2023
10 largest holdings have now contributed *134%* of S&P 500ās return this yrā¦
Huge outlier here.
via @Todd_Sohn pic.twitter.com/bYS2Rd00VR
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) October 31, 2023
Last week, just 25% of $SPX stocks were >200-d. Since 2002, this has usually been 'near' the low (except 2008-09 and 2020) but never 'at' the low, which has sometimes followed several months later pic.twitter.com/csJ7baASJj
— Urban Carmel (@ukarlewitz) October 31, 2023
Energy is on track to finish as the worst-performing sector in October, but long-term breadth readings have not yet broken down. The percentage of Energy stocks trading above 50-day moving averages all the way through one-year moving averages far exceed any other sector. pic.twitter.com/cumzh6HBkA
— Rob Anderson (@_rob_anderson) October 31, 2023
Nuclear/Uranium stocks continue to show the best relative strength
YTD Performance: $CCJ +79%$UEC +58%$URNM +47%$NXE +39% pic.twitter.com/gUgdHG5MmO
— Brian Lund (@bclund) October 31, 2023
I would like to talk to a manager- I was promised $150/bbl just a few weeks ago.. Looks like #fibonacci woke up to fade the headlines once again in oil, next level on tap for a test- 79.40? #crude #2monthlow pic.twitter.com/6YO3dENUuF
— Chris Robinson (@cer_hedge) October 31, 2023
Crude oil futures vs. the 200-day moving average cloud…
I got bearish when we fell below in 2H 2022.
I got bullish when we broke above in July'23.
I'll get bearish when we break below it once again.Pending breakdown here will destroy the re-inflation thesis.#Disinflation pic.twitter.com/nUGL1aofEr
— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) October 31, 2023
#Gold is putting the finishing touches on a BIG bullish month (+7.4%).
This marks the 3rd most bullish month since 2020 (behind Nov '22 +8.3% and Mar '23 +7.6%).
All-time highs loom < $100 away near $2075 as we flip the calendars to November. pic.twitter.com/ozOJkDY4bq
— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) October 31, 2023
Wow – massive volume on $TLT this month. Now down 6 months in a row (it was down 7 in a row from late '21 to through 1H22) pic.twitter.com/AqX6dwY1If
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT š (@MikeZaccardi) October 31, 2023
My pumpkin just looked at a chart of the Russell 2000. $IWM pic.twitter.com/NBfane9Jr0
— Joseph Fahmy (@jfahmy) October 31, 2023