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Today’s Summary
Monday, November 1st, 2021
Indices: Dow +0.26% | S&P 500 +0.18% | Nasdaq +0.63% | Russell 2000 +2.65%
Sectors: 9 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Consumer Discretionary led, gaining 1.83%. Technology lagged, inching lower by 0.15%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose 0.32% to $83.84 per barrel. Gold futures gained 0.60% to $1,795 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell 0.27%.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield inched higher to 1.559%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
If stocks went up during the worst 6 months of the year, how do you think they'll do during the best 3 months of the year (which starts today)…. pic.twitter.com/jElhEeTXVF
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) November 1, 2021
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by JC Parets (@allstarcharts). The chart shows the performance of some of the largest equity indices over the past six months. As you might know, May-October has historically been the worst six months for stocks. However, stocks were resilient this year with the S&P 500 gaining 10% since May. While some might view this as a failure of seasonality, we view it as a testament to how strong the underlying trend is right now. We’re now entering the best six months (November-April). We’ll leave you with this quote from the legendary technician, Walter Deemer. “When the market doesn’t do something it should do, it usually means that the underlying trend is unusually powerful.”
Quote of the Day
“I don’t really like hedging. To me, if something needs to be hedged, you shouldn’t have a position in it.”
– Stanley Druckenmiller
Top Links
Strong Months Beget Strong Months – Bespoke
Bespoke points out that strong months are often followed by further gains in the next month.
An 85% Chance That Stocks Won’t Suffer a Pullback – SentimenTrader
The team at SentimenTrader examines seasonality for stocks in the final quarter of the year.
The Artist Formally Known As – The Weekly Trend
In this podcast, David Zarling and Ian McMillan discuss some of the most important technical developments.
One Resilient Market – Momentum Monday
Howard Lindzon and Ivanhoff highlight some of the strongest stocks, trends, and themes across the markets.
It’s a Bull Market Ya Know… – All Star Charts
JC Parets shows that the Value Line Geometric Index is poised to breakout.
Top Tweets
Seasonally, small caps enjoy the last two months of the year. Following the multi-month consolidation, IWM is a chart I'm keeping a close watch on.
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) November 1, 2021
The Russell 2,000 $IWM is up over 2% to start November and looking to break out of one of its tightest nine-month ranges in its history. pic.twitter.com/mqXeF4FjMp
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 1, 2021
Small-caps rallying is bullish. While we might see a pullback as we approach resistance and +20% YTD level, November has been positive 100% of the time by an average of +5.1% the last 10-years for the Russell 2000. $IWM $RTY_F $RUT pic.twitter.com/rUtGTZBlQe
— Matthew Timpane, CMT (@mtimpane) November 1, 2021
Imagine seeing this chart and saying it looks primed for a reversal… $IWM
Sure, it might. But if you're interested in probabilities, it's probably (pun intended) not your best bet… ?♂️ pic.twitter.com/RizbdLFter
— Mike Coolbaugh (@elementmacro) November 1, 2021
If transports and small caps break out to ATHs, along with the rest of the broad markets, and we get a relative breakout in China as well, this market is going up in a big way, regardless of what anyone thinks of inflation/supply chains. pic.twitter.com/j7Lhd8p4bA
— Knox Ridley (@knox_ridley) November 1, 2021
When the S&P 500 is up >20% for the yr heading in November did you know that stocks have never been lower in Nov or the final two months?
8 for 8 higher in Nov, up 3.7% vs. avg Nov up 1.7%.
Final 2 months up 6.2% on avg vs. avg year up 3.2%.
Strength is a bull's friend. pic.twitter.com/vvPXsCXNei
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 1, 2021
The Santa Claus rally in one chart.
Happy November. You are here (in the average year since 1950) pic.twitter.com/hq8BgAkrsK
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) November 1, 2021
S&P 500 1yr performance heat map. Any stock in the red is shameful! pic.twitter.com/qWfOqu9vro
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) November 1, 2021
Time for Industrials to breakout. pic.twitter.com/QgQoyhYyj8
— Strategas (@StrategasRP) November 1, 2021
Is this the highest RSI reading for $TSLA ever? Why yes, I believe 93.47 is. pic.twitter.com/CPRlljdInr
— Jay Woods (@JayWoods3) November 1, 2021
Concentration: whether it’s #bitcoin or #ethereum, >90% of supply is held by top 1% of addresses
@biancoresearch @glassnode pic.twitter.com/5XoApfANPN— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) November 1, 2021
SQUID meme coin eliminated after 230,000% gain pic.twitter.com/8XEoKj4797
— Nicola Duke (@NicTrades) November 1, 2021
The market performs much better on average when @McDonalds sells the McRib than when it doesn't.
Trade accordingly.
h/t @dollarsanddata pic.twitter.com/C9sz9Gpp1M
— Morning Brew ☕️ (@MorningBrew) November 1, 2021
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!