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Todayâs Summary
Wednesday, November 1, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq 100 +1.77% | S&P 500 +1.05% | Dow +0.67% | Russell 2000 +0.45%
Sectors: 9 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Technology led, gaining +1.93%. Energy lagged, falling -0.23%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -0.72% to a two-month low of $80.44 per barrel. Gold futures fell –0.34% to $1,988 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index was flat (-0.04%)Â at $106.67.
Crypto: Bitcoin gained +2.25% to a new 52-week high of $35,440. Ethereum rose +1.74% to $1,847.
Volatility: The Volatility Index dropped -7.00% to 16.86.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.734%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
#ES_F, 1d
Will ES be able to cross above its 200d MA? pic.twitter.com/yOVdTM4JPs
— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) November 1, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso). The S&P 500 is up +2.93% this week, putting it on track for its best week in seven months. It’s repairing a lot of the technical damage that occurred last week. Bulls made considerable progress today by reclaiming the lows from early October, around 4,220. Yuriy points out that the next task on the bull’s to-do list is reclaiming the 200-day moving average. We saw a similar shakeout beneath the 200-day in March, leading to an impressive multi-month rally. The reaction to $AAPL’s earnings tomorrow could spark a breakout or rejection. As we enter a seasonally bullish period, reclaiming this long-term moving average would strengthen the odds of a year-end rally.
Quote of the Day
âThe best inside information is on the tape. I would rather follow its indications than act on a tip from J.P. Morgan himself.â
â Richard Wyckoff
Top Links
Strong Seasonals Return After Red October – LPL Financial Research
Greg Smith looks at seasonality in the final months of the year.
ETFs & Markets with Todd Sohn: S&P 500 Top 10 Contribution at 134% – Strategas
In this quick video, Todd Sohn shares several unique market insights.
November Technical Market Outlook – Grindstone Intelligence
Austin Harrison highlights some key trends to watch in the month ahead.
Are VIX Speculators Offering Up a Bullish Stock Signal? – Schaeffer’s Investment Research
Rocky White examines what positioning in VIX futures could mean for the S&P 500.
Top Tweets
Daily Mkt Mood: Mixed
1. Stocks rally
2. Bonds soar
3. Commodities down
4. Dollar does little
5. A little FOMO feelingReaction to FOMC suggests relief nothing specific on hiking, otherwise still sounded like a tightening bias.$SPX on 200-DMA again, but prob brief pop only.
— Abigail Doolittle (@TheChartress) November 1, 2023
The S&P finished up 1.1% today, its strongest Fed day since July 2022
It was also Powell best press conference (based on S&P gains) since February pic.twitter.com/EqyxyfuoxR
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) November 1, 2023
A bull market journey begins with a single step…
Taking out the 4220 early october lows that did not hold last week.
A small bull victory ahead of the 200d MAV challenge. pic.twitter.com/X1jlfGXhnF— conradseric, CMT, CAIA, CEFA (@conradseric) November 1, 2023
both the $SPY and $QQQ are at in important level of interest after a decent run, the âď¸VWAP from 10/17 pic.twitter.com/VX4FPkm8fH
— Brian Shannon, CMT (@alphatrends) November 1, 2023
Muted rebound on $RUT pic.twitter.com/OT0QBgW1zy
— Aksel Kibar, CMT (@TechCharts) November 1, 2023
yes I know, it's a fake asset, manipulated and funds criminals. But Bitcoin is making new 18-month highs, and that's all I'm really interested in. pic.twitter.com/jgyYdiBsZu
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) November 1, 2023
Ethereum $ETH hasn't even broken out yet. pic.twitter.com/1Wr2C2G7eu
— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) November 1, 2023
$ITB homebuilders 3rd best day of the year – solid volume on both ITB and $XHB today pic.twitter.com/4iNytlWQ5d
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT đ (@MikeZaccardi) November 1, 2023
Homies must like the Fed. Good On-Balance Volume, too. #ITB pic.twitter.com/zg5pGmRbG0
— Michael Kahn, CMT (@mnkahn) November 1, 2023
10y fall *20bp* today
biggest drop since March pic.twitter.com/t04n9H0ALy
— Katie Greifeld (@kgreifeld) November 1, 2023
If yields are near a peak, things could get interesting for bond contrarians. The chart below (which shows large speculator positions in the 2-year note) suggests that the short bet is about as crowded as it gets. pic.twitter.com/8WWu1iS9Yv
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) November 1, 2023
$TNX 5% being the cycle top would be something pic.twitter.com/3wktwNm7gf
— Eliant Capital #4 (@eliant_capital) November 1, 2023