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Today’s Summary
Monday, November 2nd, 2020
Indices: US Stocks kicked off the week on a positive note with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 423 points or 1.60%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed higher by 1.23% and 0.42%. Small-Caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 gaining 1.96%.
Sectors: 10 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, rising 3.12%. Tech was the only sector to close lower, slipping 0.14%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures moved higher by 2.85% to $36.81 per barrel. Gold futures rose 0.67% to $1,893 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index was unchanged.
Interest Rates: The 10-year US Treasury yield moved lower to 0.842%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
During an election year, November is the best month of the year for the S&P 500.
December is the third best month.
Will 2020 follow suit and end up strong? pic.twitter.com/c6OSBks9Ac
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 2, 2020
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Ryan Detrick of LPL Financial Research (@RyanDetrick). October is in the books, which means the “worst six-months” are in the rearview mirror. Interestingly, these past six months (May-October) turned out to be very strong this year. Investors who “Sold in May and Went Away” missed an impressive 17% gain in the S&P 500. Some would see this as a complete failure of seasonality. But we view the S&P 500 bucking its seasonal trend as important information in favor of the bulls. If stocks were resilient in the face of a seasonal headwind, how do we think they’ll behave now that seasonality has become a tailwind? Ryan reminds us that November is the best month of the year for the S&P 500 in both election and non-election years. As we know, 2020 has been anything but “average.” But it’s important to keep in mind that November-April has historically been the strongest six month stretch for the S&P 500 over the past 70 years.
Quote of the Day
“Democracy feeds on argument, on the discussion as to the right way forward. This is the reason why respecting the opinion of others belongs to a democracy.”
– Richard von Weizsäcker
Top Links
Rotation Report VIII – The Rotation Report
Aaron Jackson stresses the importance of tuning out the noise this week and shares some of the charts he’s watching.
Gold is Ready to Explode Higher, Bitcoin’s Highest Monthly Close Ever – Big Trends Monthly
Josh Brown and JC Parets break down the major long-term trends that are in play right now.
Why Emerging Markets Could Benefit from the Election Outcome – CNBC
Ari Wald of Oppenheimer offers his bullish outlook on Emerging Markets and Chinese Internet stocks.
Stocks Under Pressure – Momentum Monday
Howard Lindzon and Ivanhoff highlight the strongest stocks, trends, and themes across the markets.
Seasonality is Here – The Weekly Trend
In this podcast, David Zarling and Ian McMillan review October’s price action and discuss some of the technical developments they’re watching in the near-term.
Top Tweets
Welcome to the month of November: The S&P 500 Index has gained 1.3%, on average, in November with 75% of periods closing higher. https://t.co/MrIf08KR0t $SPX $SPY $ES_F $STUDY pic.twitter.com/n7lB6jGtuC
— Equity Clock (@EquityClock) November 2, 2020
S&P held support last week, and despite the 200 pt drop, RSI never hit oversold conditions. A break of this horizontal support would favor the bears, but until then this still seems like a consolidation within an uptrend. $SPY $ES_F pic.twitter.com/yf0rLV2RPp
— Tarek I. Saab (@FibLines) November 2, 2020
Value has now outperformed growth for 2 months, after losing out in 11 straight pic.twitter.com/N8B5z0VZbu
— Sarah Ponczek (@SarahPonczek) November 2, 2020
It would seem the reports of Growth's death have been greatly exaggerated $IWF $IWD $IUSG $IUSV $SPY pic.twitter.com/BWtsVSB474
— Drew Wells, CMT, CIMA® (@DrewTheCharts) November 2, 2020
Broad style themes remain intact for now. (Large over small, growth over value, U.S. over non-U.S.) Will review post-election. pic.twitter.com/lhSuivsV67
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) November 2, 2020
Here's one possible reason why stocks held firm just above 3230 on Friday, it's where we had the big breadth thrust in June leaving that level with quite a bit of 'price memory' when price returned to it. $SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/RfXA3glKA9
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) November 2, 2020
Banks show some life as curve steepens. pic.twitter.com/IVBHXXbPv6
— Strategas (@StrategasRP) November 2, 2020
10y Treasury yield glued to its 200-dma pic.twitter.com/iyqxl7aKKF
— Katherine Greifeld (@kgreifeld) November 2, 2020
Dollar update $DXY overbought and needs to take out the red line before we get really worried. After the election the direction might be a clear. pic.twitter.com/R1HqLUpJxT
— Jason (@JasonPerz138) November 2, 2020
The Presidential race has gone from Trump thru August…
…and then to Biden in late-September…
…back to Trump until this past week…
Now it's looking like it's going to be a "PHOTO FINISH" at tomorrow's market close.
Who's going to take home the victory?#election2020 pic.twitter.com/jRW2ajmiV2
— Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT (@AdamKoos) November 2, 2020