Powered By:
Today’s Summary
Tuesday, November 7, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq 100 +0.93% | S&P 500 +0.28% | Dow +0.17% | Russell 2000 -0.28%
Sectors: 5 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Consumer Discretionary led, gaining +1.12%. Energy lagged, falling -2.22%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures dropped -4.27% to $77.37 per barrel. Gold futures fell –0.76% to $1,974 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.23% to $105.50.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +1.06% to $35,414. Ethereum fell -0.83% to $1,886.
Volatility: The Volatility Index closed lower for the 7th day, falling -0.67% to 14.80.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.571%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
5 largest S&P weights = 25% of index now, new high. pic.twitter.com/0t2rQjsG2M
— Todd Sohn (@Todd_Sohn) November 7, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Todd Sohn (@Todd_Sohn). Mega-Caps have gotten even more Mega lately. One way to visualize this is by looking at the Equal-Weight S&P 500 vs. the S&P 500 (red line). It closed at a three-year low today despite the recent rebound in the broader market. Todd points out that the five largest stocks ($AAPL, $MSFT, $AMZN, $NVDA, and $GOOGL) have never carried so much weight in the S&P 500, representing 25% of the index. In other words, the top 1% of the S&P 500 is responsible for a quarter of its performance. This is a tailwind for the S&P 500 as long as the top five outperform, but the index has never been more dependent on its star players.
Quote of the Day
“Heads, I Win;
Tails, I Don’t Lose Much.”
–Mohnish Pabrai
Top Links
Lucky Number Seven and Semiconductor Momentum – Nautilus Research
Nautilus Research points out that the recent winning streak in the Nasdaq could be bullish for Semiconductor stocks.
New Lows Peaked a While Ago – All Star Charts
JC Parets highlights a bullish breadth divergence in the S&P 500.
The Three Most Important S&P 500 Charts Right Now – CappThesis
Frank Cappelleri examines the outlook for the S&P 500 with three key charts.
QQQ Daytrade Entries with Anchored VWAP – Alphatrends
Brian Shannon explains how he’s trading the current market environment.
Top Tweets
There have been two times in the past 40 years when the S&P 500 rose for 7 straight days following a 100-day low.
The first was on March 20, 2003. It marked the end of that bear market.
The other was today.
— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) November 7, 2023
$VIX has been down 7 days in a row for the 33rd time in the last 34 years. We’ve seen 8 down days on a row 13 times, 9 in a row 9 times, 10 in a row 3 times and never (yet) 11 down days in a row. $SPX
— Bill Luby (@VIXandMore) November 7, 2023
The Nasdaq 100 $QQQ traded higher for the eighth day in a row today; its 21st 8-day winning streak in history?
Will it make it 9 for 9 tomorrow? Historically it has done so 60% of the time. pic.twitter.com/JN7qIRgFnO
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 7, 2023
The S&P 500 is up the first seven days of the most bullish 10-days of the year.
No, you shouldn't ever blindly invest in this, but when everyone turns bearish on a normal 10% correction right into a super bullish time ==> this can happen. pic.twitter.com/VuojzLnwzP
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 7, 2023
What happens during counter-trend moves??? Sketchy volume [check], spastic price action [check], mixed sentiment readings [check], and — most importantly — a strong suspicion you're missing the beginning of a new trend [do you?]. pic.twitter.com/jmrsuhqfRA
— Brett Villaume, CMT, CAIA (@brettvillaume) November 7, 2023
$QQQ after 8 days higher, some back and fill at some point could offer a good reset. Pullbacks have been shallow and bought so far, along with breakouts. pic.twitter.com/O4dQBIBhBi
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@bluechipdaily) November 7, 2023
Crude Oil back below the 200 DMA.$CL_F $CRB $SPN pic.twitter.com/QldEQ1QyH5
— Shane C. Murphy (@murphycharts) November 8, 2023
Crude oil gained +40% in 3 months.
Team Re-Inflation came out strong saying that it was going to create a massive ripple effect for the broader economy & trigger a second wave of inflation.
I explained why I thought that was bananas.
Crude has now fallen -18% from YTD highs. pic.twitter.com/DVqydUMEgw
— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) November 7, 2023
Both oil prices (blue) and the 10y yield (orange) have reversed lower by fairly significant degrees (after swift runs higher throughout the summer) pic.twitter.com/bejzi4c4HM
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) November 7, 2023
At the center of the bullish action last week were—what else?—rates. After retesting the 5% mark for a second time, the 10-year ripped almost 50 bps lower on the week. pic.twitter.com/LXLeOW6Pyr
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) November 7, 2023
The # 6 Multi Market Seasonal Trade of the Year on my Top 100 list is Short Yields (Long Bonds) from Nov6-26. 30 Year Yields have declined over this time frame in 30 of the last 40 yrs. The 10 Basis Point moves are 5-22 to the downside. pic.twitter.com/Il04CN32Dc
— Wayne Whaley (@WayneWhaley1136) November 7, 2023
Apple $AAPL has completed a pattern Edwards and Magee (and Schabacker) referred to as a falling wedge. The target is a retracement of the entire wedge, or a move to an ATH pic.twitter.com/yLjT0Q3L9F
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) November 7, 2023
$MSFT … the biggest S&P 500 company by market cap … at an all-time high right now, up 8 sessions in a row. pic.twitter.com/36e6mh6baf
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) November 7, 2023
I created this useful decision tree to improve everyone’s performance numbers… pic.twitter.com/YwRhj3mzSd
— Kuppy (@hkuppy) November 7, 2023