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Today’s Summary
Wednesday, November 9th, 2022
Indices: Dow -1.95% | S&P 500 -2.08% | Nasdaq 100 -2.37% | Russell 2000 -2.68%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed lower. Utilities led but still fell -0.78%. Energy lagged, dropping -4.89%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures dropped -3.46% to $85.83 per barrel. Gold futures inched lower by -0.13% to $1,714 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.75%.
Crypto: Bitcoin slid -14.12% to $15,931. Ethereum tumbled -16.67% to $1,110.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.097%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
$SPX 4-year election cycle seasonal composite. pic.twitter.com/zXX0Do5v7P
— Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) November 9, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap). The chart shows the S&P 500’s average performance throughout the 4-year Presidential Cycle (blue), with this year’s performance overlayed in red. The S&P 500 has been pretty in sync with the Presidential Cycle since Biden took office. Midterm years, like 2022, have historically been weak up until Q4, and that’s certainly been the case so far. Nautilus reminds us that we’re approaching one of the strongest parts of the 4-year Presidential Cycle. To be fair, history never repeats exactly, and the S&P 500 is pretty structurally damaged right now. However, it’s an important cycle to keep in mind, given how closely the S&P 500 has been tracking it.
Quote of the Day
“Relative trends tell you where to look.
Absolute trends tell you what to do.”
Top Links
November 9, 2022 – Mid Week Market Update – Trading Adventures
Andrew Moss highlights some of the biggest technical developments from this week.
This Time Is Like That Other Time – All Star Charts
JC Parets points out that the Financial sector looks poised to outperform.
10 Sectors to Target for Short Plays – Schaeffer’s Investment Research
Rocky White examines which industry groups look good/bad right now.
Gold Breaks Out Ahead of Election CPI – Bespoke
Bespoke looks at Gold’s recent strength.
Top Tweets
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— Stocktwits (@Stocktwits) November 9, 2022
Dow Jones has been a relative winner, but trendline has held firm so far. pic.twitter.com/ke7zEI6dHU
— David Rath (@DJwrath) November 9, 2022
The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow dropping to fresh lows on the session that pull the day into the red. Meanwhile, the relative 'growth to value' ratio of $NDX to $DJIA continues the internal value erosion pic.twitter.com/rv0JqYn4P5
— John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter) November 9, 2022
Sharp spike in equity put/call ratio (blue) yesterday calls into question signal of market’s recovery … going back to prior lows in turbulent periods (2020, 2018, 2015, 2011 & 2008), lead time to market trough was mixed
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/Hm5k0WoYoG— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) November 9, 2022
$SPX: Remaining below the upper half of the trading range won't be helpful. pic.twitter.com/zqTm25PQqS
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) November 9, 2022
Megacaps have collectively shown downside leadership, today included, but the FAANG+M+T index has signs of downside exhaustion per DeMARK Indicators (also vs $SPX) supporting a rebound for a better selling opportunity $META $AAPL $AMZN $NVDA $GOOGL $MSFT $TSLA #fairleadstrategies pic.twitter.com/UBTDL2bE1w
— Katie Stockton, CMT (@StocktonKatie) November 9, 2022
$TSLA Monthly. Neckline breaking.
Elon Musk made some very timely transactions in the past 5 years. pic.twitter.com/yLqSZDadZ3
— Brian G (@alphacharts) November 9, 2022
The Silver/Gold ratio completed a multi-month reversal pattern as gold futures violated its ytd downtrend line. $GC_F $SI_F pic.twitter.com/nxbJV3VXgd
— Ian Culley (@IanCulley) November 9, 2022
Consolidations tend to resolve in the direction of the underlying trend. In case you were wondering, the downtrend for Bitcoin is still intact pic.twitter.com/0hxsnETdsW
— Austin Harrison, CFA, CMT (@meanstoatrend) November 9, 2022
Bitcoin and Ethereum both below their 2018 highs…
1) That's important long-term support, and
2) That's the first time either assets has broken down *below a prior cycle-high*Certainly a negative development#Bitcoin #Ethereum pic.twitter.com/LEY7aP0ozD
— Mike Singleton, CFA (@InvictusMacro) November 9, 2022
It should be noted that the current decline in Bitcoin as of today's low is only the fifth worst bear market in history. An 80% decline would be 13,800 and an 85% decline would be 10,350. pic.twitter.com/84w8r9KeBf
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) November 9, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!