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Today’s Summary
Thursday, November 9, 2023
Indices: Dow -0.65% | S&P 500 -0.81% | Nasdaq -0.82% | Russell 2000 -1.57%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed lower. Communications led but still closed slightly lower by -0.03%. Health Care lagged, dropping -2.07%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +0.54% to $75.74 per barrel. Gold futures rose +0.61% to $1,970 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.35% to $105.90.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +2.95% to a new 52-week high of $36,693. Ethereum had its best day in exactly one year, surging +12.28% to $2,101.
Volatility: The Volatility Index snapped an eight-day losing streak, rising +5.82% to 15.28.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.628%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Got a big, "heavy" bearish engulfing candle today on the $SPX, but not before it was able to print a higher-high.
This is all after the market spent very little time "under water" (i.e., it's 200MA).
Just need a higher-low, ideally holding support at the 200MA. pic.twitter.com/0p9WdJ5Yyd
— Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CEPA (@AdamKoos) November 9, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Adam Koós (@AdamKoos). The S&P 500 snapped an eight-day winning streak today, printing a bearish engulfing candle. This reversal candle suggests an exhaustion of the near-term uptrend. While this pattern tells us to anticipate weakness in the coming days, daily candlestick patterns have little relevance to long-term trends. The simplest definition of an uptrend is a series of higher highs and higher lows. Adam points out that the S&P 500 achieved a higher high this week before today’s reversal. The next thing bulls need to see is a higher low…ideally above the 200-day moving average. A higher low would also create the right shoulder of a potential head & shoulders bottom.
Quote of the Day
“Research is seeing what everybody else has seen and thinking what nobody else has thought.”
–Albert Szent Györgyi
Top Links
The Streak is Snapped – Trading Adventures
Andy Moss examines today’s reversal.
Historic Sentiment Shift – Bespoke
Bespoke breaks down the results of the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.
Buying Tech in a Tech-Led Bull Market – All Star Charts
JC Parets points out that the Technology sector is reasserting its leadership.
ETFs & Markets with Todd Sohn: Flows Suggest Low Bar For Equities – Strategas Asset Management
Todd Sohn highlights some key insights from recent fund flows.
Crypto is ‘The Most Hated Rally’ Going into Year End, Says CoinShares Head of Strategy – CNBC
Meltem Demirors shares her outlook on Bitcoin in the final months of the year.
Top Tweets
#VIX #SPX #RATES pic.twitter.com/NCCUbg6Syy
— Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) November 9, 2023
Trendline and prior swing high just too much$SPX pic.twitter.com/YpZR0MvtRA
— David Rath, CMT, CFA (@DJwrath) November 9, 2023
1 positive Sector on the week so far.
And to no ones surprise, it's Tech. $XLK $SPY $QQQ pic.twitter.com/Eplgjprwsr
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) November 10, 2023
After one of the best weeks for stocks in years, AAII bulls saw a historic jump. (insert shocked face)
Up >18% in one week has only happened 8 other times the past 20 yrs.
Higher a yr later all 8 times, but near-term some weakness isn't abnormal. pic.twitter.com/ljR5UPE55h
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 9, 2023
The S&P 500 has been in a drawdown for nearly two years, the longest since the Global Financial Crisis which took 4.5 years to get back to new highs. $SPX
Video: https://t.co/1Pe3Z4VVbq pic.twitter.com/65RjNbR1mw
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) November 9, 2023
The positive correlation between stocks & bonds continues since inflation became the concern. For decades we saw the opposite, where inflation was bullish. Stocks & bonds therefore had a negative correlation. The "safe haven" status of bonds is gone. It's only the US Dollar now. pic.twitter.com/je02HsrBdR
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) November 9, 2023
$TNX #TNX Still watching to see if this head and shoulders plays out on the 10-year yield.
If so, the markets are likely in for some short-term pain. $SPY$SPX$QQQ$IWM pic.twitter.com/qAnkqFmkUS
— Jake Wujastyk (@Jake__Wujastyk) November 9, 2023
I keep reading that LT t-bonds are a “generational buying opportunity.” I personally don’t consider locking in a 4.7% annual yield for 30 years to be that. BUT expect huge rallies at times. A 38% retracement could take TLT to $120. But am “trading”, NOT “investing.” pic.twitter.com/YvYu9LVuGx
— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) November 9, 2023
THE WORST THE BEARS COULD DO WAS $35,667 FOR LITERALLY ONE MINUTE LMAO THEY'RE CLAPPED pic.twitter.com/viw7kLXvAi
— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) November 9, 2023
Ethereum had its best day relative to Bitcoin in over a year today. Crypto bulls want to see this ratio continue to catch a bid. $ETHBTC #Thrusty pic.twitter.com/sBDPI5Tmtd
— Sam Gatlin (@sam_gatlin) November 10, 2023
It will be interesting to see if this market can expand beyond this pETH of pie pic.twitter.com/97qxATj85g
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) November 9, 2023
Here is the market capitalization of all cryptoassets.
At $1.35T, it's now larger than the estimated market capitalization of all silver on the planet ($1.26T)#Gold's market cap ($13.2T) is 10X larger. pic.twitter.com/H8mftfFWv3
— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) November 9, 2023
4/ bitcoin is becoming institutional – it’s not a wave, more of a slow trickle, but a big moment this week
CME > binance in bitcoin futures OI
we’re going to see more of this, esp when we have efficient spot BTC ETFs that can tap into the $34T US retirement market pic.twitter.com/hBgEH8d4o6
— Meltem Demirors (@Melt_Dem) November 10, 2023