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Today’s Summary
Thursday, November 12th, 2020
Indices: US Stocks closed lower in today’s session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 317 points or 1.08%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped 1.00% and 0.65%, respectively. Small-Caps underperformed with the Russell 2000 falling 1.64%.
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed lower. Consumer Staples led, but still slipped 0.27%. Energy lagged, dropping 3.23%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell 0.80% to $41.12 per barrel. Gold futures rose 0.63% to $1,873 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index inched lower by 0.09%.
Interest Rates: The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 0.878%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Equal weight Discretionary breaking out as AMZN pauses. pic.twitter.com/fCTGpErM66
— Strategas (@StrategasRP) November 12, 2020
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Strategas Research (@StrategasRP). It’s a chart of the Consumer Discretionary Sector over the past 3 years on an equally-weighted basis. Amazon is by far the largest stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector, with a whopping 22% weighting. By looking at the sector on an equally-weighted basis, we get a broader view of how the average stock is performing without Amazon distorting the picture. As you can see, we’re breaking out to all-time highs this week for the first time in more than two years, even without Amazon doing the heavy lifting. This is evidence of broadening participation, which is constructive given how concerned everyone was about Mega-Cap dominance this Summer.
Quote of the Day
“What gets us into trouble is not what we don’t know. It’s what we know for sure that just ain’t so.”
– Mark Twain
Top Links
Strategas Strategist Says ‘Own Japan’ After 30-year Breakout – Bloomberg
Chris Verrone of Strategas Research points out that Japan is quietly coming back to life after being dead money for the past three decades.
Jerry Parker Talks Trends in Recent Price Activity – TD Ameritrade Network
Legendary trend follower, Jerry Parker offers his thoughts on the recent price action in Stocks and Commodities.
Gold Miners Haven’t Had This Few Uptrends in Months – SentimenTrader
Jason Goepfert points out that breadth is deteriorating in the Gold Miners ETF, $GDX.
Breadth is Broadening! – Chaikin Analytics
Dan Russo of Chaikin Analytics weighs-in on the recent rotation.
November Expiration Week: S&P 500 & DJIA Stronger – Almanac Trader
Seasonality expert, Jeff Hirsch examines how Stocks tend to perform around November options expiration.
Top Tweets
Even with today's pullback, the S&P 500 is off to its best November since 1955.
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) November 12, 2020
Overhead supply in $YM_F still causing indigestion. pic.twitter.com/v8BCMV7gc4
— Ian Culley (@IanCulley) November 12, 2020
FinTwit buzzing earlier about the 17pt+ surge in AAII bulls to 55.8 in wk ending 11-11-2020. Pullbacks often accompany rises above 55 in the bulls camp, but the strong uptrend often continued. Time frame is key for how (if) you use these. $SPX pic.twitter.com/qksLFq5Lye
— Michael McKerr (@MikeMcKerr_TDA) November 12, 2020
AAII Bullish Sentiment Survey had its fastest Rate of Chance (ROC) since 7/18/2013, the largest bullish point increase since 7/15/2010, the largest bullish reading since 1/3/2018, and ranks in the 95th percentile of all-time readings. pic.twitter.com/GOWKg6yVof
— Matthew Timpane, CMT (@mtimpane) November 12, 2020
Big change in Stock market sentiment this week…
AAII BULLS spiking to 56% – top decile in history (33 years), *Top 6* since MAR 2009 and largest weekly increase in 10 years.
BULL-BEAR Spread at 31% – top 5% in history.
Both series are now at the highest since JAN 2018. pic.twitter.com/G1TDvqOa1S
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) November 12, 2020
Similar to value, small/large trade has NOT worked since 2009. Historically, after a "deGraaf breadth thrust" (DBT), small-caps out-perform for the next 12m…it's second in efficacy only to Cyclicals/Defensives. $RTY pic.twitter.com/PmG7K72RlA
— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) November 12, 2020
Bonds rallying big time after their day off. 10-year Treasury yield back below 90bp pic.twitter.com/yqw2RTC9q5
— Katherine Greifeld (@kgreifeld) November 12, 2020
BREAKING! #Bitcoin tops USD 16,000 for the first time since January 2018. pic.twitter.com/Jsc4q0lGpq
— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) November 12, 2020
Nikkei in USD …. pic.twitter.com/r1DbJGxJsn
— Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) November 12, 2020
Friday the 13th performance. From a real trader and good friend @pivotanalytics pic.twitter.com/h5KB4hVD2W
— Macro Tactical (@MacroTactical) November 12, 2020
Tomorrow is #FridayThe13th, as if we needed something else to worry about.
Want some good news? The last time we had one of those stocks gained +9.3% (3/13/20).
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 12, 2020