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Today’s Summary
Thursday, November 16, 2023
Indices: S&P 500 +0.12% | Nasdaq 100 +0.10% | Dow -0.13% | Russell 2000 -1.52%
Sectors: 7 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Utilities led, rising +0.53%. Energy lagged, falling -1.95%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures dropped -4.66% to a four-month low of $73.09 per barrel. Gold futures rose +1.17% to $1,987 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index was unchanged at $104.39.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -4.52% to $36,165. Ethereum dropped -4.74% to $1,962.
Volatility: The Volatility Index rose +1.13% to 14.33.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.437%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
hold or fold time for energy $XLE pic.twitter.com/aiiV1OpGsi
— Jamie Saettele, CMT (@JamieSaettele) November 16, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Jamie Saettele (@JamieSaettele). This month, energy ($XLE) is the only sector in negative territory. It tried to break out of a 15-month Ascending Triangle pattern in September, but it remains within the pattern’s boundaries. This Ascending Triangle features a rising trendline as support and horizontal resistance at $94. Jaimie points out that this bullish pattern is on the verge of failing as $XLE tests support. When chart patterns fail, many conclude that technical analysis doesn’t work, but there’s valuable information to be gleaned from pattern failure. It’s especially bearish when bullish patterns fail and especially bullish when bearish patterns fail.
Quote of the Day
“Technical analysis reflects the voice of the entire marketplace and, therefore, does pick up unusual behavior. By definition, anything that creates a new chart pattern is something unusual.”
– Bruce Kovner
Top Links
Stair Stepping Higher – Trading Adventures
Andy Moss breaks down this week’s price action so far.
The Recent Rally in Real Estate Stocks: Mean Reversion or Major Reversal? – Grindstone Intelligence
Austin Harrison highlights the Real Estate sector ($XLRE) after an impressive rebound.
The Most Important Indicators I Follow – Jay Kaeppel
Jay Kaeppel examines several indicators and what they’re currently saying about the market.
ETFs & Markets with Todd Sohn: What Might Go Right for Small-Caps? – Strategas Asset Management
Todd Sohn shares some key points about small caps.
Tracking a Bond Market Bounce – All Star Charts
Ian Culley looks at what could be next for Bonds.
Top Tweets
The $SPX ultimately ended the day much the way it began: inert.
Smallest daily range today (~0.5% of spot) in two months. Is the holiday liquidity drain setting in early? pic.twitter.com/Dy9kn6a51T
— John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter) November 16, 2023
$SPY $SPX #SPY Even though the markets look a little over-extended in the very short term (1-2 weeks), this MACD backtest tells me we may be in for a massive upside move in the coming 1-2 years. pic.twitter.com/v3xnCF6CJp
— Jake Wujastyk (@Jake__Wujastyk) November 17, 2023
Years that were up more than 10% at the midpoint of the year tend to chop around in Aug/Sept/Oct.
Sound familiar?
The good news is they also tend to see solid upside to end the year. pic.twitter.com/Jhto8Amjxy
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 16, 2023
Overbought readings tend to trigger erroneous warning signs for the less initiated under the the false pretense of symmetry: "If oversold is good, overbought must be bad". Reality check: return distributions (below) of $SPX tend to smile and both OB/OS prove bullish. pic.twitter.com/nfwWxxiNz8
— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) November 16, 2023
Rare air for small-caps, now over 500 trading days since last new all-time high. Only 7th time that's happened. pic.twitter.com/AFcpqCzubc
— Todd Sohn (@Todd_Sohn) November 16, 2023
$MSFT Do NOT underestimate the power of a blue skies breakout. 🦅
$400+ loading? pic.twitter.com/rFU5MNuop2
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) November 16, 2023
$AAPL closing its August gap today & now turning those lower highs and lower lows into a new higher high – looks like a change of trend to me! pic.twitter.com/n7QnLpX77u
— Dash, CMT, CFP (@Dash_charts) November 16, 2023
Historically, the US dollar starts to weaken towards the end of the year. This should help push stocks higher. pic.twitter.com/rRK9QmDcFd
— John Rothe, CMT (@JohnRothe) November 16, 2023
#WTI Crude Oil is trading below $75 for the first time in nearly 4 months on global demand fears. #ThanksBiden
Little in the way of support until closer to $70. pic.twitter.com/VpgoMWjfEw
— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) November 16, 2023
60-65 still that important lower range/level here. $CL_F pic.twitter.com/4vEMGqBCiI
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 (@FusionptCapital) November 16, 2023
they'll tell you with a straight face that this has been a bear market. because they think you're dumb. pic.twitter.com/ozOgYDMz64
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) November 16, 2023