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Today’s Summary
Thursday, November 17th, 2022
Indices: Dow -0.02% | Nasdaq 100 -0.19% | S&P 500 -0.31% | Russell 2000 -0.76%
Sectors: 2 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, gaining +0.22%. Utilities lagged dropping -1.75%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures dropped -4.90% to $81.40 per barrel. Gold futures fell -0.72% to $1,763 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.38%.
Crypto: Bitcoin inched higher by +0.35% to $16,712. Ethereum fell -0.77% to $1,207.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.771%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
A quick chat about #Options and the put/call ratio.
I've gotten some questions today about the elevated put/call ratio. Here's the problem with #OptionsTrading – there are many different put/call ratios that one can use, and the one being discussed isn't that useful (1/ pic.twitter.com/TI4H1XtN8o
— Steve Sosnick (@SteveSosnick) November 17, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Steve Sosnick (@SteveSosnick). Many people are highlighting the fact that the CBOE Put/Call ratio spiked to one of its highest readings ever yesterday, signaling extreme fear. That should be wildly bullish for stocks, however, Steve explains why it might be misleading. The chart shows two different Put/Call ratios. The yellow line is the ratio in question. It’s certainly at an extreme, however, it only measures options on one exchange – the largest exchange, but there are 15 other exchanges. The white line is the Put/Call Ratio for all options across all exchanges. While it’s slightly elevated, it’s nowhere near extreme. For more on this, check out the full thread here.
Quote of the Day
“The best indicator I know is Trend.
The other good ones are Trend and Trend.”
– Ed Seykota
Top Links
Sentiment as a Money Management Tool – All Star Charts
JC Parets shares his thoughts on the US Dollar and the magazine cover indicator.
Highest Bullish Sentiment of the Year – Bespoke
Bespoke breaks down the results of the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.
Nasdaq Composite Reaches ‘Tripple’ Inflection Point – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble points out that the Nasdaq is testing three different long-term support levels.
The Steel Revolution – The Weekly Grind
Sam McCallum takes a look at Steel and Semiconductor stocks.
Myth Busting – Ed Clissold
In this Twitter thread, Ed Clissold busts 4 myths about the current market environment.
Top Tweets
$SPX has now gone five consecutive sessions without closing either 1% higher or lower for the first time since January, according to data compiled by Bloomberg W/@Matt_Turnerr pic.twitter.com/kMgZb52bym
— Jessica Menton (@JessicaMenton) November 17, 2022
10:15 am update of yesterday's 15-minute chart: pic.twitter.com/8VrebYsJ72
— Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer) November 17, 2022
$SPY returns by time of day
*Overnight gap trending up strongly since mid-October lows (cumulative gap historically leads overall market direction regardless of bull/bear) pic.twitter.com/6rbZIjDzC3— Jared Blikre (@SPYJared) November 17, 2022
Tough to imagine a bull market without leadership from consumer discretionary
Do we see a bullish momentum divergence here?
Or a future breakdown?$XLY pic.twitter.com/TRZ7Ix9ktD
— Mike Singleton, CFA (@InvictusMacro) November 17, 2022
Several measures of ETF flows are signaling extreme investor optimism, historically bearish for stocks in the near term.
First, 4-week flows into domestic ETFs are near their highest levels of the year. 1/3 @NDR_Research pic.twitter.com/dDmqf69rpu
— Rob Anderson (@rob_anderson314) November 17, 2022
The US Dollar Index is down 8% from its recent highs.
If it's going to rally, this is a level to pay close attention, given the inverse correlation with stocks.
Stocks have had a great run over the last couple of months. If the dollar rebounds, look out. $DXY $UUP $SPY $SPX pic.twitter.com/7w13Wlr1j3— Sam McCallum (@Honeystocks1) November 17, 2022
Volatility tends to cluster. In Q1 2020, the dollar dropped sharply before rising sharply to new highs. Possibly a similar setup today. #dxy #dollar #fx pic.twitter.com/FrhSs2KZPJ
— Nick Reece (@nicholastreece) November 17, 2022
$DXY US Dollar Index: following last week's decline of 4.1% – 2nd biggest drop since 1985 & 4th largest on record (1967) – the reversal off yday's low is forming textbook bottoming pattern (hammer) along cluster of support = Aug lows and 40-week sma. pic.twitter.com/2HpA3CL8jr
— brian.joyce.nasdaq (@Nasdaqbjoyce) November 17, 2022
Contrarian trade of the year. Drop in WTI oil prices since summer has erased most of this year's gain. pic.twitter.com/GQXIZTQoKi
— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) November 17, 2022
Biebs can win em all. Down 94.4% on this "elite" NFT purchase! pic.twitter.com/A2xvIGv8Ob
— Special Situations ? Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) November 17, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!