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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, November 22nd, 2022
Indices: Nasdaq 100 +1.48% | S&P 500 +1.36% | Dow +1.18% | Russell 2000 +1.16%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, gaining +3.13%. Real Estate lagged, but still rose +0.50%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures inched higher by +0.16% to $80.95 per barrel. Gold futures were unchanged at $1,740 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell -0.58%.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +2.78% to $16,205. Ethereum gained +2.82% to $1,137.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.758%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Big difference b/w Dow $DJI & Nasdaq $NDX
Dow has already rallied ~18% off its October low and retraced 62% of its max YTD drawdown
Nasdaq is only about 11% above its October low, representing less than a 20% retracement pic.twitter.com/0ixHLBefPe
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) November 22, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Steve Strazza (@sstrazza). The Dow closed just a hair shy of a 7-month high today and continues to be the strongest major index. The Nasdaq, on the other hand, remains burdened by its heavy exposure to Technology stocks. Steve points out that the Dow has retraced more than 62% of its decline, while the Nasdaq has retraced less than 20% of its respective decline. At this point, the Nasdaq needs to rally more than 40% to reach an all-time high, while the Dow only needs about 8%. Which horse do you want to bet on?
Quote of the Day
“Show me the charts and i’ll tell you the news.”
– Bernard Baruch
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Top Links
Time to Feast Thanksgiving-Santa Claus Rally Trade – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch takes a look at how the S&P 500 has historically performed between Thanksgiving and the new year.
The “Most Obvious” Bear Market Rally Ever? – Carson Group
Ryan Detrick outlines the bull case for stocks.
Oil’s Big Reversal – PFT Trading
Greg Rieben looks at yesterday’s massive reversal in Crude Oil.
Stock Market Analysis November 22, 2022 – Brian Shannon
In this quick video, Brian Shannon analyzes recent price action and lays out a few levels to watch in the near term.
Comparing the Fundamental View of a Stock vs. a Technical View – Jay Woods
Here’s a great thread from Jay Woods where he highlights the rise and fall of Peloton ($PTON) as an example of why technicals often trump fundamentals.
Top Tweets
Final heat map of the S&P 500's performance from today pic.twitter.com/chwWYAVJQS
— StockMKTNewz – Evan (@StockMKTNewz) November 22, 2022
To retrace half of its decline since January, S&P 500 would have to get to 4186 (light blue line), which would be a 6% move to upside from here
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/lj5Ti4c3HY— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) November 22, 2022
Dow > 34k
Nearly a 7-month high pic.twitter.com/Un6CEY8y0o
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) November 22, 2022
Big test on deck. $SPX, $VIX pic.twitter.com/gRyXNHUQAq
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) November 22, 2022
S&P 500 sectors Vs moving averages…#stocks $SPY $SPX $XLB $XLY $XLK $XLE $XLF $XLC $XLI $XLV $XLRE $XLU $XLP pic.twitter.com/l9MvM2oDwp
— Grant Hawkridge (@granthawkridge) November 22, 2022
Insurance trading at all-time highs today. $IAK ? pic.twitter.com/ZDhyiCl26Y
— Grayson Roze (@GraysonRoze) November 22, 2022
Within materials, steel sector has the highest # of stocks near 52-week highs. Not copper, rare earths, PM's, uranium, etc. $STLD $TS $CMC $RS
Many tankers & oil stocks also making new highs. Follow leaders. Avoid stuff making new lows like $RIOT $TEAM etc. pic.twitter.com/fVduuXJHha
— Brian G (@alphacharts) November 22, 2022
The last time crude oil was down 25% from a 52-week high and the Energy sector was within 3% of a 52-week high was way back in 2006. pic.twitter.com/GUiDjr3Pjc
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 22, 2022
Here's the chart I referenced in my interview w/ @cvpayne yesterday, looking at the break in correlation b/w energy stocks and oil.
When the break is a result of weak oil, historically we see a rebound in the commodity & a continued move higher in the sector. $XLE $CL_F pic.twitter.com/FDpKq86YLA— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) November 22, 2022
I keep hearing about “the dollar falling apart” and “surging gold.” Yes, things may ultimately play out that way. But on a trend-following basis, we are not quite there yet. Patience in a virtue… and a pain in the rear. pic.twitter.com/BpeCmhVTmY
— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) November 22, 2022
President JFK was assassinated 59 years ago today.
The S&P 500 fell 2.8%, but soared 4.0% the next day.
The following 12 months were one of the strongest and least volatile periods in stock market history.
It didn't lose 1% on a single day until the following June!
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 22, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!