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Todayโs Summary
Monday, November 27, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq 100 -0.13% | Dow -0.16%| S&P 500 -0.19% | Russell 2000 -0.35%
Sectors: 3 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Real Estate led, gaining +0.36%. Health Care lagged, falling -0.63%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -0.90% to $74.86 per barrel. Gold futures rose +0.47% to a six-month high of $2,012 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell -0.21% to a two-month low of $103.20.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -0.59%to $37,240. Ethereum dropped -1.68% to $2,028.
Volatility: The Volatility Index rose +1.85% to 12.68.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.388%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
$SPX is well above the 12M price target of consensus strategists on the street. That's historically bullish for $SPX as strategists are forced to adapt a more accommodating narrative. Yes, price leads narrative, not vice-versa #knowthedata pic.twitter.com/gfcBQyxxGu
— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) November 27, 2023
Todayโs Chart of the Day was shared by Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC). As we approach the new year, itโs a good time to remember how silly year-end price targets are. The analysts who make these predictions are smart folks, but they donโt have a crystal ball. Most of them update their views as the data unfolds throughout the year, as any objective analyst should. Heading into 2023, analystsโ average year-end price target was 4,009, with some calling for as low as 3,250. The S&P 500 currently trades more than 10% above that average, at 4,550. Renaissance points out that the S&P 500 tends to do well when analysts are caught off guard like this. As they say, price creates the narrative, not vice versa.
Quote of the Day
โWhen people are looking for performance, they sharpen their pencils and find reasons to buy.โ
โ Michael Price
Top Links
Renaissance Macroโs Jeff deGraaf gives the technical take for 2024 โ CNBC
Jeff deGraaf shares his perspective on the S&P 500 and yields.
Not Necessarily the Mega Caps and Everyone Else โ Bespoke
Bespoke breaks down the marketโs performance by size.
Bull Market Turns 17 Months Old โ All Star Charts
JC Parets highlights a few noteworthy areas of the market.
How The Market Shapes Your Portfolio โ A Wealth of Common Sense
Ben Carlson looks at the positive unintended consequences of stock market bubbles.
Six Reasons to be Thankful โ Carson Group
Ryan Detrick offers some bullish food for thought.
Top Tweets
In the post-WWII period, the full week after Thanksgiving has historically been weaker than average, but over the last 20 years, performance has been better. https://t.co/oQ4pBMNuMT pic.twitter.com/Q4DTeEjkxQ
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 27, 2023
8/2/23 Gap fill…now what?
Sideways pause? Roll over? Break to new highs?
All possibilities, some more likely than others. $SPX $SPY $ES_F pic.twitter.com/tOz5JxetLO
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) November 27, 2023
$NQ_F $QQQ $NDX Extremely rangebound the last 10 days.
Neither bulls or bears win with this type of price action.#QQQ pic.twitter.com/DMgMcsQwbB
— Jake Wujastyk (@Jake__Wujastyk) November 27, 2023
Top 10 Best Months for the S&P 500 Since 1985:
๐ทJan '87: +13.2%
๐ทApr '20: +12.7%
๐ทDec '91: +11.1%
๐ทOct '11: +10.8%
๐ทNov '20: +10.8%
๐ทMar '00: +10.2%
๐ทApr '09: +9.4%
๐ทMay '90: +9.2%
๐ทJul '22: +9.1%
๐ทJul '89: +8.8%$SPX is trading up 8.7% so far this month.๐ pic.twitter.com/P7JB5tqMU3— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) November 27, 2023
When stocks rally like they have over the past month (8.9% since October 25), momentum usually leads to more momentum.
Wanna fight a market firing on all cylinders?
Good luck. pic.twitter.com/k9hrxiUzhs
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) November 27, 2023
How impressive is the post-Oct-27th reversal? There are only nine cases since 1920 in which 14-week RSI rose above 60 from below 40 within five weeks. pic.twitter.com/wCYuh608EF
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) November 27, 2023
Semis vs the S&P 500 are at the same level as Feb 2021, but please tell me more about bubbles. Yes, the 50 is above the 200 but a bubble? pic.twitter.com/ztS1UVf6El
— Dan Russo, CMT (@DanRusso_CMT) November 27, 2023
$TNX looking for a fresh 2-month closing low yield 4.40% pic.twitter.com/yYakeccfS7
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT ๐ (@MikeZaccardi) November 27, 2023
10-year yields usually fall after the last hike, but they're actually up so far since the July hike. If that was in fact the last one, one would expect more downside in yields… pic.twitter.com/FLDZoKsYDu
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) November 27, 2023
I ntercontinental
B allistic
M issle$IBM pic.twitter.com/UYT8ScJibI— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) November 27, 2023
After 2023 Miss, Wall Street Caves to Rally Few Predicted – Flurry of forecasters see S&P 500 topping 5,000 by 2024โs endhttps://t.co/5YSpqQPpzX pic.twitter.com/H1tekIbhrG
— JE$US (@WallStJesus) November 28, 2023
"Twelve months ago, strategists on net forecast an outright fall for stocks in 2023, the first time this century that they had predicted a loss…" @johnauthers https://t.co/WlHDQg2tJ3 pic.twitter.com/aJgesC0LFB
— Sam Ro ๐ (@SamRo) November 27, 2023