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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, November 28, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq +0.30% | Dow +0.24% | S&P 500 +0.10% | Russell 2000 -0.46%
Sectors: 8 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Consumer Discretionary led, gaining +0.58%. Health Care lagged, falling -0.51%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures gained +2.07% to $76.41 per barrel. Gold futures rose +1.37% to a six-month high of $2,040 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index dropped -0.44% to a three-month low of $102.74.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +1.63% to $37,847. Ethereum gained +1.10% to $2,050.
Volatility: The Volatility Index inched higher by +0.16% to 12.70.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to a two-month low of 4.323%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared in a note by John Roque of 22V Research (@daChartLife). Gold is on track to book its highest weekly close in history. It hasn’t reached all-time highs on a daily basis yet, but it’s less than 2% from doing so. Many have given up on the yellow metal, as it’s fumbled numerous breakout attempts in the post-Covid era. It’s completing a three-year base, next to a nine-year base, which together form a 12-year Cup & Handle pattern. The annotations on the chart highlight several base breakouts that were followed by triple-digit returns. In the note, John commented, “Breakouts over nearly 50 years have produced equity-like gains. Maybe gold doesn’t possess any of the sexiness A.I. offers, but sometimes wisdom wins out.”
Quote of the Day
“To get what you want, you have to deserve what you want. The world is not yet a crazy enough place to reward a whole bunch of undeserving people.”
–Charlie Munger
Top Links
Investors are Still Sad – All Star Charts
JC Parets points out that investor sentiment is still sour despite the recent rebound.
Volatility Falls to a 1-year Low – Thrasher Analytics
Andrew Thrasher examines what could be next for the $VIX after hitting new lows recently.
The Stock Market’s Calm after the Storm – CappThesis
Frank Cappelleri breaks down recent price action in the S&P 500.
Precious Metals on the Move – Grindstone Intelligence
Austin Harrison shares his technical outlook on Gold and Silver.
December Opens Bearish in Midst of Most Bullish Season – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch looks at how stocks have historically performed on the first trading day in December.
Top Tweets
Today will likely be the 5th day in a row the S&P 500 doesn't gain or lose more than 0.45%.
You have to go back more than 7 months the last time that happened. (April 12th)
What's that thing they say about shorting a dull market?
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 28, 2023
The S&P 500's intraday range over the last two trading days has been the narrowest since Christmas Eve 2019. pic.twitter.com/4n4kqGr33D
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 28, 2023
$SPY up >8% this month AND above its 10-mma.
only 8 prior instances in 30 yrs, of which 2 were stinkers (2000 was a mega stinker, 2015 was a mini). The other 6 went zoom pic.twitter.com/0KhtcXXdlz— Urban Carmel (@ukarlewitz) November 28, 2023
A low VIX isn't necessarily something to fear. Decent forward equity returns, more often than not. pic.twitter.com/KL0QlHD00o
— Todd Sohn (@Todd_Sohn) November 28, 2023
Sector performance against S&P 500.
2022 vs 2023 (YTD)This year has literally been the opposite of last year!
Looks like a bull market to me. $SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/CDRrwlQHEL
— Alex Fatio (@Alex_Fatio) November 28, 2023
Measured against the October 2022 low, we can see just how little progress the market has made. Typical market bottoms are V-shaped affairs that lead to impulsive rallies. But this one has been like watching paint dry. Did the cycle really bottom 13 months ago? I think so, but… pic.twitter.com/fZLYbulwo6
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) November 28, 2023
$GDX breakout, best day since July pic.twitter.com/pqayLAZGsM
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) November 28, 2023
Rocks vs Stocks. When will the gold miners have their time? pic.twitter.com/5aFW7PXq1K
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) November 28, 2023
For the last 7+ years, the ratio of Gold/Stocks has bottomed at these relative levels. However, each rally (in favor of Gold) has gotten subsequently weaker…$GLD $GC_F $SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/jqssUZjyja
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) November 28, 2023
Silver prices started rallying two weeks ago – the same day that the US Dollar index broke support. Probably not a coincidence. More dollar weakness = more silver strength $SLV $DXY pic.twitter.com/ryI9DqriXr
— Austin Harrison, CFA, CMT (@meanstoatrend) November 28, 2023
Dolalr is now firmly under its 200d MAV and is on the shores of oversold RSI territory for the first time since mid-July pic.twitter.com/GCchsdXVKT
— conradseric, CMT, CAIA, CEFA (@conradseric) November 28, 2023
$TNX #TNX The 10-year yield continues to be in free fall.
The gap below suggests we could get down to the 4.200% area below relatively soon.
This would be very bullish for $IWM $RTY & individual small cap names which are the most sensitive to interest rates. pic.twitter.com/td6UsN72PU
— Jake Wujastyk (@Jake__Wujastyk) November 28, 2023
🇺🇸Yields on 10y UST dropped the most since Aug 2011 when S&P cut the US rating from AAA to AA+
This rally has been driven entirely by expectations for more rate cuts in '24-'25, driven by a faster drop in inflation and weak growth
⚠️Market expectations can be flimsy@saxobank pic.twitter.com/g8E1lHPMT6
— Althea Spinozzi (@Altheaspinozzi) November 28, 2023
"Given the violence of bond market moves we’ve seen both directions this year, a continued decline and ultimately flat yields for 2023 cannot be ruled out" —@bespokeinvest pic.twitter.com/oZf6JxkKXS
— Gunjan Banerji (@GunjanJS) November 28, 2023
Perfection.$TNX https://t.co/t4qPFjGBGM pic.twitter.com/MgVsUlDwir
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 (@FusionptCapital) November 28, 2023