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Today’s Summary
Monday, November 29th, 2021
Indices: Dow +0.68% | S&P 500 +1.32% | Nasdaq +1.88% | Russell 2000 -0.18%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed higher. Tech led, gaining 2.50%. Industrials lagged but still inched higher by 0.17%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rebounded 2.64% to $69.95 per barrel. Gold futures were flat and continue to trade around $1,786 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index gained 0.14%.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 1.500%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
S&P 500 returns following largest $VIX spikes…
Takeaway: the market tends to rise over time and tends to rise more following volatility spikes (note: on average, there are always exceptions and this latest spike could very well be one). pic.twitter.com/NsfshBynfW
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) November 27, 2021
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello). While most of us were in a food coma during Friday’s half-session, the Volatility Index shot up 54%. Charlie points out that this was the fourth largest 1-day % gain for the VIX ever. The table on the right shows the S&P 500’s forward total returns following some of the largest VIX spikes in history. On average, the S&P 500 has been positive across the board whether we’re talking 1-week later or 1-year later. Will this time be different?
Quote of the Day
“Wall Street never discounts the same thing twice.”
– Old Adage
Top Links
When Black Friday Falls – Almanac Trader
Seasonality expert, Jeff Hirsch examines how the S&P 500 has historically performed after falling on Black Friday.
5 Charts to Watch This Week – PFT Trading
Greg Rieben highlights five charts to keep an eye on this week.
Texas Tea Double Digit Dip – Bespoke
Bespoke takes a look at what has historically happened when Crude Oil drops 10% or more in a single day like it did on Friday.
It Came From Left Field – IronBridge Private Wealth
Jim Denholm shares his thoughts on Friday’s Vol-cano.
Charts Baseball and Being Nice w/ John Roque – Technical Analysis Radio
In this podcast, JC Parets interviews John Roque of 22V Research. They discuss the shortcomings of technical indicators and more.
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Top Tweets
$VXX had its largest 1 day decline in history today. Fun fact…
— Dr. Stoxx (@DrStoxx) November 29, 2021
Don't give up on Santa just yet.
When the S&P 500 is up >20% for the year going into December, the final month of the year is actually stronger than normal.
In fact, higher 8 of the past 9 times. pic.twitter.com/7zKMTkbtFd
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 29, 2021
$SPY has filled Friday's gap. $IWM still needs to hit 228.54 to follow suit. pic.twitter.com/mDYlhyUPGc
— Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer) November 29, 2021
Not an ideal development for small caps last week, but not a complete breakdown of weekly trend either. Next few weeks are important. $RUT pic.twitter.com/Mf9hwuEuw7
— Michael Turvey (@MikeTurvey_TDA) November 29, 2021
Re: $IWM, the trailing 4 week pattern is an all-time high weekly close followed by a 3 week losing streak.
Since inception, she's then never closed lower 1 month later.
She's mostly hated right now, and the chart is a mess, so I like her here and now. pic.twitter.com/rXnTDhW8Zc
— Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) November 29, 2021
Human nature never changes… pic.twitter.com/Rwc2O0eqnV
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) November 27, 2021
A version of a chart from last night's Thrasher Analytics letter…$VIX has typically had a tough time sustaining an advance after rising 10 points in a single day. 2008 and the Covid Crash were two exceptions. pic.twitter.com/MqLuYZnuul
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) November 29, 2021
The $VIX range has redefined itself with its upper boundary near 29; a decisive breakout (2x weeks above) would dictate $SPX caution from a sentiment perspective #fairleadstrategies pic.twitter.com/rqNirpPDZx
— Katie Stockton, CMT (@StocktonKatie) November 29, 2021
Today's action not going to do much to relieve concerns about weakness beneath the surface.
This was day 4 of both NYSE and NASDAQ having more new lows than new highs.
We are at 8 days in a row of NYSE+NASDAQ combined new lows > new highs pic.twitter.com/ZgciDjOyRV
— Willie Delwiche (@WillieDelwiche) November 29, 2021
After Friday, the average S&P stock is down 13% from its 52-wk high, which is right on the median. It felt painful, but given where we were beforehand it really wasn't that bad. (h/t @StrategasRP ) pic.twitter.com/WUWStYgugx
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) November 29, 2021
The weekly of the 10-Year Note gets my attention:
1. Sitting on support.
2. Testing 10-Week MA resistance below the 40-week.
3. Bullish RSI divergence.
4. Clear resistance for rates at the 1.75% level.What's it going to be? pic.twitter.com/qvwsT3IE93
— Dan Russo, CMT (@DanRusso_CMT) November 29, 2021
$ETH Ethereum retesting its May highs multiple times now. Needs to hold ~4200. pic.twitter.com/oFUs1UHDCf
— Pratyush Tulsian (@PrattyCharts) November 29, 2021
Pfizer likes it $PFE pic.twitter.com/G9hS3ZSDOi
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) November 29, 2021
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!