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Today’s Summary
Monday, November 7th, 2022
Indices: Dow +1.31% | Nasdaq 100 +1.11% | S&P 500 +0.96% | Russell 2000 +0.55%
Sectors: 8 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Communications led, gaining +1.79%. Utilities lagged, dropping -1.91%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -0.89% to $91.79 per barrel. Gold futures rose +0.23% to $1,681 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index dropped -0.51%.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -1.93% to $20,511. Ethereum was flat and continues to trade at $1,568.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.216%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
U.S. Dollar and 10-yr. treasury yield: Still the two most important charts IMO. When they are both going up, not much else is. If they both start to fall hard, the game changes quickly – and completely. Watching closely.#sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/ZhbMzpAo6T
— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) November 7, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel). It’s a chart of the US Dollar Index ($UUP) and the 10-year US Treasury yield ($TNX) year to date. Many are anticipating a year-end rally for stocks, but in order for that to happen, these two likely need to stop going up. The good news is that neither has made a new high post-FOMC. The bad news is that both continue to be in robust uptrends. The Dollar is looking slightly vulnerable, as it’s currently testing its uptrend line. The 10-year yield is in better shape, just 3bps from a fresh high. As Jay points out, these two continue to be the most important charts out there right now, so pay attention!
Quote of the Day
“Happiness is just results minus expectations.”
– Morgan Housel
Top Links
5 Charts to Pay Close Attention to This Week – PFT Trading
Greg Rieben highlights 5 noteworthy charts to watch this week.
Keeping Up with Commodities – Means to a Trend
Austin Harrison looks at Copper, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, and the US Dollar.
The Most Important Chart in Crypto – All Star Charts
JC Parets points out that Bitcoin & Ethereum have continued to respect their prior cycle highs.
The Case for Active Part 2 – GK Trading
Greg Krupinski outlines a simple long-term trend-following strategy for investors.
Trendlines Over Headlines With Special Guest, Nick Reece – The Chart Report
In the latest episode of Trendlines over Headlines, Nick Reece of Merk Investments joins us to make sense of the stock market and the economy.
Top Tweets
Final heat map of the S&P 500's performance from today pic.twitter.com/5PS5Y6Omcc
— *EVAN BLOOMBERG (@StockMKTNewz) November 7, 2022
The current bear market is 10.25 months old.
The average bear market lasts….
…11 months.
(the median: 7 months) pic.twitter.com/sHFGKNAuGL
— Dr. Stoxx (@DrStoxx) November 6, 2022
The 2018 high is an important level for tons of reflationary cyclical exposures (small caps, transports, copper miners, etc)
Just a reminder that – despite the correction in growth stocks – the Nasdaq still has a solid 30% decline between here and there$QQQ $NDX pic.twitter.com/HapjzHM6DG
— Mike Singleton, CFA (@InvictusMacro) November 7, 2022
S&P 500 Energy Index has climbed to highest since late 2014
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/W0tAErZB5y— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) November 7, 2022
$VIX and equity correlation went positive on Friday, first time this year. pic.twitter.com/b0TDrBsHOc
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) November 7, 2022
The stock market tends to do much better following midterm elections.
S&P 500 average one-year returns:$SPX after midterms +15.1%$SPX all other years +7.1%
via @CapitalGroup pic.twitter.com/JFvFfZMmJW
— Eric Wallerstein (@ericwallerstein) November 7, 2022
Dollar down 2.5% last 2 days. Huge move historically. pic.twitter.com/fTSr81ViuE
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) November 7, 2022
$DXY the greenback is now below last week's low and once again testing the rising trendline in place since February, despite the more hawkish "higher for longer" FOMC on 11/2. pic.twitter.com/WKxJvS7TJn
— brian.joyce.nasdaq (@Nasdaqbjoyce) November 7, 2022
Looks like $TSLA will not be able to overcome the strong magnetic pull to the ⚓️VWAP from the Covid low near 180 pic.twitter.com/scTwCBtMig
— Brian Shannon, CMT (@alphatrends) November 7, 2022
Tesla chart $TSLA (long scale) is constructing a possible massive HnS top pattern with a target of $104. Patterns often fail or morph, but it this one works a short would be a heck of a trade. pic.twitter.com/rXShU431Du
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) November 7, 2022
Coal stock $BTU ? pic.twitter.com/GhRcUgM6Mg
— Greg Rieben (@gregrieben) November 7, 2022
"How about 100 shares of Lancaster Colony?"
"What do they do?"
"Salad dressing and croutons."
"Yeah … pass." pic.twitter.com/KVv0vQgIoU— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) November 7, 2022
Lesson for bottom fishers:
CVNA was in a 95% drawdown coming into this month and has been cut in half since then.
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) November 7, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!