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Todayβs Summary
Monday, December 4, 2023
Indices: Russell 2000 +1.04% | Dow -0.11% | S&P 500 -0.54%Β | Nasdaq 100Β –0.99%
Sectors: 4 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Real Estate led, gaining +0.55%. Tech lagged, falling –1.22%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -1.39% to $73.04 per barrel. Gold futures dropped -2.27% to $2,042 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index roseΒ +0.43% to $103.64.
Crypto: Bitcoin jumped +4.99% to a 20-month high of $41,985. Ethereum gained +2.27% to $2,244.
Volatility: The Volatility Index roseΒ +3.72% to 13.09.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.257%.
Here areΒ the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
$KRE – Regional Banks base is hard to ignore. pic.twitter.com/p5wJPvO2fq
— Larry Thompson (@HostileCharts) December 4, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Larry Thompson (@HostileCharts). The Regional Bank ETF ($KRE) rose +1.39% to a three-month high today while the broader market was down. Regional Banks have been dragging on the Russell 2000 all year, but Larry points out that $KRE is attempting to break out of an 8-month base. It’s approaching resistance from the August highs, around $49, and RSI is overbought for the first time in over a year. Clearing $49 would open the door for a rally to the 2022 lows, around $56. $KRE could go from $49 to $56 pretty quickly due to the lack of price memory between these two levels.
Quote of the Day
βThe market may be crazy, but that doesn’t make you a psychiatrist.β
β Meir Statman
Top Links
Hamer It Out – Trading Adventures
Andy Moss looks at how the major averages kicked off the week.
Small Caps Heat Up – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch points out that Small Caps are doing what they usually do around this time of year.
New Highs in 2024* – Bespoke
Bespoke points out that the S&P 500 is whiskers from an all-time high on a total return basis.
Better Not Pout – The Weekly Trend Podcast
In this podcast, David Zarling and Ian McMillan discuss some of the key technical developments across the markets.
Top Tweets
$IWM up 4.7% on $QQQ between Friday and today. Not a bad ROC. pic.twitter.com/Ym6p8pu0RD
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT π (@MikeZaccardi) December 4, 2023
New multi-month highs for Small-caps relative to Large-caps. Also new multi-month highs for the Equally-weighted S&P500 relative to the Market-cap weighted version. Like we've said all year long, this is not a risk on/off gauge, it's just sector rotation. nbd pic.twitter.com/wvAOl0WYAm
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) December 4, 2023
I know, I know, only 7 stocks.
But did you know that we've seen strong outperformance from the equal weighted S&P 500 lately, exactly where this ratio bottomed in '20?
Suggesting many more than just 7 stocks have been going higher the past 5 weeks. pic.twitter.com/Cn2Ywk90ZM
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) December 4, 2023
$AAII bears dropped so fast second only to the 2017 Trump tweetathon/melt up top.$ES_F pic.twitter.com/o51K2ngZSu
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMTπ§ (@FusionptCapital) December 4, 2023
As far as the Bloomberg data goes back (and basically within living memory), the 10yr yield has spent the most time between 4.1%-4.2%, relative to any other 10bp increment. #rates @nicholastreece @StoneX_Official @TheChartReport pic.twitter.com/NzpF5AfNoA
— Kathryn Rooney Vera (@KRooneyVera) December 4, 2023
Several interest rate indictors have turned more bullish for stocks in recent weeks following the pullback in yields. That includes this one that was featured in the @NDR_Research Hotline report this morning, based on 0.5 % point drops in Moody's Corporate BAA yield. pic.twitter.com/jKxgoaYXdF
— Rob Anderson (@_rob_anderson) December 4, 2023
#Gold went from a surge to record high to its second biggest 'upper wick' on record very quickly.
The 'life moves pretty fast' line appropriate for $GC_F pic.twitter.com/8YFYQBEynG
— John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter) December 4, 2023
At ~6.3% of spot, today's range in #Gold is the largest we've seen in over 3 years.
It's the 3rd largest range we've seen in the past 7 years. pic.twitter.com/WfbUP4ukxu
— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) December 4, 2023
Gold is on track to suffer one of its worst intraday reversal bars in 50 years.
It does not have a good track record of recovering quickly from them.$Gold $GLD $XAU pic.twitter.com/lGUZUSV7bn
— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) December 4, 2023
Almost scared to insert myself into Gold Twitter today, but I find it notable that rolling 3-month flows into GLD look very different today than the last two times we were approaching the highs pic.twitter.com/q4R7BifCpv
— Scott Brown, CMT (@scottcharts) December 5, 2023
Remember the crypto banks?
Customers Bancorp is the new one in town, benefitting big from the collapse and closure of $SI & $SBNY$CUBI has tripled since May and is trading at fresh all-time highs against its regional banking peers…
Will it be different this time around..? pic.twitter.com/kKBQGREdlT
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) December 4, 2023
I'm sorry guys but the avocados say this Bitcoin rally is unsustainable. pic.twitter.com/ZfCWobR5o4
— Tracy Alloway (@tracyalloway) December 4, 2023