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Today’s Summary
Wednesday, December 6, 2023
Indices: Dow -0.19% | Russell 200 –0.21% | S&P 500 -0.39% | Nasdaq 100 -0.56%
Sectors: 4 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Utilities led, gaining +1.34%. Energy lagged, falling –1.49%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures dropped -4.07% to a five-month low of $69.38 per barrel. Gold futures rose +0.57% to $2,048 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.19% to $104.16.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -0.71% to $43,764. Ethereum dropped -2.64% to $2,233.
Volatility: The Volatility Index rose +0.78% to 12.96.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to a three-month low of 4.106%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Double secret probation for the $TNX! 50-day MA turned down. Now facing major support from 1) uptrend since 2021, 2) March 2023 peak, 3) 200-day MA. pic.twitter.com/IitZ4fQ9sD
— Brett Villaume, CMT, CAIA (@brettvillaume) December 7, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Brett Villaume (@brettvillaume). The US 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX) dropped to a 3-month low of 4.11% today. It peaked in mid-October after reaching 5.00% for the first time since 2007. This decline in yields has fueled the recent rebound in stocks and crypto. However, Brett points out that $TNX is testing a potential inflection point, around 4.07%. This level coincides with the 200-day moving average, the March ’23 highs, and the uptrend line from the Aug ’21 lows. $TNX has every reason to bounce here, but if it breaks, it will send a very bullish message to stocks and other risk assets.
Quote of the Day
“Be quick to turn bullish, but take your time turning bearish. The market is up more than 70% of the time.”
– Larry Williams
Top Links
big” Drops in Treasury Yields – Bespoke
Bespoke examines the drop in the 10-year yield.
Stock Market and Oil Analysis December 6 2023 – Alphatrends
Brian Shannon breaks down recent price action and lays out some key levels to watch in the near term.
Things You Don’t See in a Recession – Carson Group
Ryan Detrick lays out several reasons why the economy probably isn’t on the verge of recession.
Ethereum Breaks Out of an 18 Month Base – All Star Charts
Louis Sykes highlights the breakout in Ethereum.
December Almanac: Stronger in Pre-Election Years – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch looks at how stocks have historically performed in December of Pre-Election years.
Top Tweets
What if I told you that Banks were above their July highs and the broad market was not?
Fascinating turn of events here.$SPY $KBE pic.twitter.com/kMtZV7VxGo
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) December 6, 2023
If banks reclaim their July highs, it's hard to be pessimistic about stocks pic.twitter.com/FV8kTuvQZJ
— Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) December 6, 2023
Homebuilders $XHB are at their highest level … ever.
Home prices are at record highs.
US indices are within a couple percent of record highs.
Are we really that sure that the #Fed will cut in Q1? pic.twitter.com/Q9VTK4XqKm
— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) December 6, 2023
The Homies with a breakout, a successful backtest, and now knocking on the door of more relative highs. Momentum vs. the S&P 500 hasn't fallen into oversold territory in nearly 2 years. None of that is bearish $ITB pic.twitter.com/KbBzKJZIMZ
— Austin Harrison, CFA, CMT (@meanstoatrend) December 6, 2023
The S&P 500 was up more than 8% in November '23.
After previous >8% monthly gains?
Higher a year later 27 out of 30 times and up nearly 16% on average. pic.twitter.com/3f97xeBKvv
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) December 6, 2023
$TNX hanging right above support while reaching near oversold levels in the RSI
Do we bounce or break this level?! pic.twitter.com/8Xxsbijgv8
— Dash, CMT, CFP (@Dash_charts) December 6, 2023
Pretty crazy how correlated #Oil & the 10 Year yield $TNX have been since June.
Makes complete sense though. $CL_F #WTI $TLT pic.twitter.com/cYnbDRVnTT
— Jake Wujastyk (@Jake__Wujastyk) December 6, 2023
I say this from time to time, prob worth repeating.
Your mind is essentially under constant attack. If you can recognize when and how, and combine it with some basic price action, markets (at the margin at least) get slightly easier to navigate.$USO $TLT pic.twitter.com/mQU4OhZiwn
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 (@FusionptCapital) December 6, 2023
Bond yields $TNX $TYX continue to breakdown, key downtrend in place below declining 20-sma.
Continued bullish tailwind for $TLT $TMF. pic.twitter.com/tgLsk64eq0
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@bluechipdaily) December 6, 2023
TLT is accelerating versus both SPY & GLD. pic.twitter.com/ESx8soPROs
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) December 6, 2023
Will @CathieDWood soon be coming out of the Woods? $ARKK
This could become a completed H&S bottom pic.twitter.com/rjx7f11hXk— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) December 6, 2023