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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, December 12, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq 100 +0.82% | Dow +0.48% | S&P 500 +0.46% | Russell 2000 -0.13%
Sectors: 8 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Financials led, gaining +0.72%. Energy lagged, falling –1.37%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures dropped -3.80% to a five-month low of $68.61 per barrel. Gold futures were flat at $1,993 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell -0.26% to $103.82.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +0.52% to $41,458. Ethereum fell -1.04% to $2,201.
Volatility: The Volatility Index dropped -4.43% to a four-year low of 12.08.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.203%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
The VIX is hitting 47-month lows because "wE'rE iN a ReCeSsiOn". pic.twitter.com/ATDi32cVM1
— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) December 12, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen). The Volatility Index ($VIX) fell to a 4-year low of 12.08 today. Caleb jokes that we’re probably not in a recession if the VIX is at multi-year lows. This further proves that a new bull market is underway, as volatility tends to contract once an uptrend is established. Some interpret this as a lack of fear among market participants. However, despite being called the “fear gauge,” the VIX isn’t necessarily a sentiment indicator. It’s designed to measure the market’s expectation of future volatility. By definition, the current reading of 12.08 means that the market expects a daily move of 0.75% in the S&P 500.
Quote of the Day
“Short-term volatility is greatest at turning points and diminishes as a trend becomes established.”
– George Soros
Top Links
Bull Market Behavior – JottingOnCharts
Grant Hawkridge highlights some of the positive developments that have taken place in recent months.
S&P 500, CPI, FOMC & December – CappThesis
Frank Cappelleri breaks down recent price action in the S&P 500 and what the final two weeks of the year could look like.
Nothing to Fear but Fear Itself – Grindstone Intelligence
Austin Harrison examines several key ratio charts and what they’re telling us about risk appetite.
Which Companies Make Up the “Magnificent Seven” Stocks – Visual Capitalist
Visual Capitalist looks into the Magnificent Seven.
Top Tweets
Zombie market mode engaged 🧟♂️ $SPY
Not a seller in sight. pic.twitter.com/ICAHlj7aC2
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) December 12, 2023
$QQQ tripped his little brother Russell at the end of the day, then sprinted to the finish. pic.twitter.com/Q1gKPvPfuU
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) December 12, 2023
Everyone is above their July highs, except for you-know-who…$SPY $QQQ $IWM $DIA pic.twitter.com/xUIDfSzeTR
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) December 12, 2023
Average performance for the $SPX ( in red) and small-cap Russell 2000 (in green), normalized since 1993, shows the propensity for small caps to outperform early in the New Year, often because they are subject to undue tax-loss selling into year-end #fairleadstrategies pic.twitter.com/QJVekPnymJ
— Katie Stockton, CMT (@StocktonKatie) December 12, 2023
The $VIX ended the day at 12.07, its lowest close since November 2019. pic.twitter.com/47RXfgIACa
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) December 13, 2023
The #VIX is at a fresh post-COVID low at 12.1.
The low reading in this measure of the S&P 500's implied volatility suggests that traders are pricing in…
…an average daily move of just 0.76% in $SPX
…and an average weekly move of just 1.7%— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) December 12, 2023
VIX is at the lowest level since Jan ‘20. That helped push the ratio of the MOVE index that tracks bond market vol to the highest over the VIX since mid-1995 👇 pic.twitter.com/nZncyFngA0
— Menthor Q (@MenthorQpro) December 12, 2023
The percentage of commodities trading above their 200-day moving average has fallen to the lowest level since the Covid crash. pic.twitter.com/uVg0323CS3
— Dean Christians, CMT (@DeanChristians) December 12, 2023
Crude Oil continues to get hammered and is currently on track for its 8th consecutive red week which would be the longest since 2015 pic.twitter.com/gA2afcYtYC
— Barchart (@Barchart) December 13, 2023
The charts no text/chart book will show you but how trading often works in the real world.$GOLD taking out both sides of the the ranges and reversing, only after everyone's been conditioned to the 'key levels' etc. pic.twitter.com/eImxjCvt7c
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 (@FusionptCapital) December 12, 2023
FOMC meme tomorrow pic.twitter.com/mziWhu09NP
— Fomocap (@fomocapdao) December 13, 2023