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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, December 19, 2023
Indices: Russell 2000 +1.94% | Dow +0.68% | S&P 500 +0.59% | Nasdaq 100 +0.49%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, gaining +1.20%. Consumer Staples lagged but still rose +0.20%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +1.54% to $73.94 per barrel. Gold futures gained +0.57% $2,052 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index dropped -0.36% to $102.14.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -0.92% to $42,258. Ethereum fell -1.83% to $2,178.
Volatility: The Volatility Index fell -0.40% to 12.52.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield was unchanged at 3.933%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
"It's just the Magnificent 7 driving this rally!"
What a load of click-baity crap.
The S&P 500 equal-weight index just cycled from a 52-week low to 52-week high in 33 days.
The only time since 1957 it happened faster was in September 1982 when the average stock went on to… pic.twitter.com/u1HEHUcR5M
— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) December 19, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Jason Goepfert (@JasonGoepfert). Narrow leadership has been a hot topic all year, but it hasn’t mattered, and it’s no longer a valid concern. Many suggested that the rally couldn’t continue because “it’s just seven stocks propping up the market!” The magnificent seven did indeed mask some of the weakness beneath the surface, but isn’t that the whole point of a cap-weighted index like the S&P 500? Jason points out that the Equal-Weight S&P 500 just cycled from a 52-week low to a 52-week high in 33 trading days, marking its fastest rebound in 41 years. This has only happened one other time, so take it with a grain of salt, but it certainly wasn’t bearish. The equal-weight index, or the ‘average stock,’ rose +46% the following year. The generals led the initial charge, and the troops have joined them on the battlefield now.
Quote of the Day
“Every ceiling reached becomes a floor.”
– Aldous Huxley
Top Links
Small-Caps Have Historically Flourished Ahead of Christmas – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch examines how stocks have historically performed in the days leading up to Christmas.
Nvidia Ready For Another 50% Rally? – All Star Charts
JC Parets points out that Nvidia ($NVDA) is attempting a new leg higher.
Are Bond Yields Facing Historic Overbought Correction? – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble takes a long-term look at interest rates.
Technical Tuesdays 📈 with The Chart Report
Here’s the recording of our discussion on Twitter Spaces earlier today.
Top Tweets
Dow Jones Industrials trades green for a 9th consecutive day and its 5th straight all-time high closing price pic.twitter.com/g4IWwubZSS
— Barchart (@Barchart) December 19, 2023
The S&P 500 gained 0.59% today.
The S&P 500 is 0.59% away from a new all-time high. pic.twitter.com/x7rR84epbN
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) December 19, 2023
The S&P 500's RSI has now reached its highest since September 2020. Which was either a top or very much not the top depending on your time horizon pic.twitter.com/v9boxW1XTU
— Scott Brown, CMT (@scottcharts) December 20, 2023
We just saw historic breadth and momentum thrusts coming in tandem.
% of Stocks Making New 3-Month Highs > 40% ✅
% of Stocks Overbought > 40% ✅This has only happened three times in the last 20 years.
While this may imply caution in the short term, such a cluster of bullish… pic.twitter.com/52UgnCHgwk
— Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) December 19, 2023
Small caps are now beating large caps over the last 6 months pic.twitter.com/ouaOnXpNLI
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) December 19, 2023
Equal weight as of late. pic.twitter.com/BJc190ZjKz
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) December 19, 2023
📷$SPAC are starting to emerge from a multi-year base formation. Do you see this as natural progression of increasing risk tolerance or is this now a speculative mania? pic.twitter.com/hUnYoXfvU6
— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) December 19, 2023
Last week marked the 1st time since COVID that the 10yr Treasury Yield fell 100bps in 8 weeks.
Before that, the last occurrence was back in 2011!
Going back to 1990, such moves have occurred in the middle of bull markets (1995) OR near major market bottoms (2008, 2011, 2020) pic.twitter.com/v16gF5QpGI
— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) December 19, 2023
Sugar: 19 closes below 5 SMA . Note Wyckoff distribution top. A trader 4 decades ago used to lecture me; "Out of the greatest strength comes the greatest weakness." Claimed it was from the bible but I am not sure….Just a good example of the power of extended runs! pic.twitter.com/iaRNVSng2g
— Linda Raschke (@LindaRaschke) December 19, 2023
Santa Claus Rally dates for 2023-2024
🎅📈📉 pic.twitter.com/bLmc62jaBg
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) December 19, 2023
Internet: Seasonality is stupid.
Seasonality: pic.twitter.com/hE5Yl28Dbe
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 (@FusionptCapital) December 19, 2023