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Today’s Summary
Wednesday, December 20, 2023
Indices: Dow -1.27% | S&P 500 -1.47% | Nasdaq 100 -1.53% | Russell 2000 -1.89%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed lower. Communications led, but still fell -0.77%. Utilities lagged, dropping -2.03%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +0.38% to $74.22 per barrel. Gold futures fell -0.21% to $2,048 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.26% to $102.41.
Crypto: Bitcoin gained +3.33% to $43,665. Ethereum rose +1.14% to $2,202.
Volatility: The Volatility Index gained +9.11% to 13.66.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to a four-month low of 3.851%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Over the past 30 years the big warning has been when there was no Santa Claus Rally.
Years like 2000 and 2008 saw potential warning signs when🎅didn't show up.
🎁🎄❄🎅🤶 pic.twitter.com/x7juWTJ0Iz
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) December 20, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Ryan Detrick (@RyanDetrick). The official Santa Claus rally period begins on Friday. This seasonal phenomenon was first published in 1972 by Yale Hirsch in The Stock Traders Almanac. The Santa Claus Rally refers to December’s last five trading days and the first two of the new year. It has historically been one of the most bullish seven-day stretches of the year regarding both win rate and average return. Since 1950, the S&P 500 rose nearly 80% of the time for an average gain of +1.32%. The Santa Claus Rally can also set the tone for the year ahead. When the S&P 500 has failed to rally during this seasonally bullish period, Ryan points out that the following year has been sub-par at best.
Quote of the Day
“If Santa Claus should fail to call,
bears may come to Broad and Wall.”
– Yale Hirsch
Top Links
Removed NDX Stocks Likely to Outperform Those Added – Schaeffer’s Investment Research
Rocky White examines how stocks have historically performed after being added or removed from the Nasdaq 100.
Stock Market Video Analysis December 20, 2023 – AlphaTrends
Brian Shannon dissects today’s intraday reversal.
Perfectly Normal Market Behavior – All Star Charts
JC Parets shares his thoughts on the current market environment.
Consumers Are Sour, But Investors Like What They See – Hi Mount Research
Willie Delwiche looks at investor sentiment.
Four More Reasons ’24 Should Be a Good One for the Bulls – Carson Group
Ryan Detrick lays out four reasons why the rally could continue next year.
Top Tweets
Today's tape $ES_F pic.twitter.com/OW5zUPvku7
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 (@FusionptCapital) December 20, 2023
S&P 500 $SPX suffers biggest decline since September pic.twitter.com/GdO5DuaW0s
— Barchart (@Barchart) December 20, 2023
The $SPX broke its uptrend since the low of 2023 was installed back on Oct 27th and broke below the Anchored VWAP since the Fed Pivot last week. With only 7 more trading days left, are managers going to sit and watch the YTD gains slip away? Santa is flying into a blizzard. pic.twitter.com/ij9Jlad0tI
— Brett Villaume, CMT, CAIA (@brettvillaume) December 20, 2023
Dow 2nd worst day since March pic.twitter.com/8ww3pOwtqV
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) December 20, 2023
The S&P 500 has gained 16% over the last 36 trading days, one of the biggest short-term rallies we've seen in the last 30 years. >99th percentile historically. pic.twitter.com/qxzjU5gMj0
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) December 20, 2023
Last week, 47% of $SPX stocks registered overbought momentum readings
Last time we had such an extreme reading was 43% on June 8, 2020
A few days after, S&P fell -5.89% in a single session. Investors freaked
It then went on to rally more than 60% over the next year and a half pic.twitter.com/likJnnOoh1
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) December 20, 2023
Positive L-T momentum has grown behind $SPX as it nears all-time highs; the breakout > 4600 was a big deal in our work, and the measured move from a subsequent breakout > 4819 would be impressive…sign up for a free trial of our research to join our quarterly outlook call next… pic.twitter.com/MJZZ6Tvuxj
— Katie Stockton, CMT (@StocktonKatie) December 20, 2023
The contribution of the 10 largest S&P 500 weights to YTD returns has dropped to under 70%. That’s still historically elevated, but a significant decline from heavy skews a few months ago…. we strongly believe the rush to money market funds has reflected neglect for equities. pic.twitter.com/Y5dhWRmOvK
— Todd Sohn (@Todd_Sohn) December 20, 2023
Strong $QQQ names this December – some big movers $ILMN $WBA $TEAM $AVGO $AMD $QCOM pic.twitter.com/Oydq17tAEM
— Scott Redler (@RedDogT3) December 20, 2023
Every bear on twitter after the close today. 😅 $SPY pic.twitter.com/xb2hRd7psi
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) December 20, 2023