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Today’s Summary
Thursday, December 22nd, 2022
Indices: Dow -1.05% | Russell 2000 -1.29% | S&P 500 -1.45% | Nasdaq 100 -2.49%
Sectors: All 11 Sectors closed lower. Health Care led, but still inched lower by -0.14%. Consumer Discretionary lagged, dropping -2.57%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -1.02% to $77.49 per barrel. Gold futures dropped -1.65% to $1,795 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.15% to $104.39.
Crypto: Bitcoin was flat and continues to trade around $16,820. Ethereum inched higher by +0.30% to $1,218.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.682%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Is it this simple? Probably not, but it is interesting.
When the Santa Claus Rally takes place, the year is up 10.5% on avg and higher 73.2%.
When there is no SCR? Only 5.0% and 67%.
“If Santa should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” —Yale Hirsh @AlmanacTrader pic.twitter.com/kHEWSW2UZb
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) December 21, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Ryan Detrick (@RyanDetrick). With the S&P 500 down -6.3% in December, it’s getting harder to believe in Santa Claus this year. However, the official Santa Claus Rally period doesn’t begin until tomorrow (Friday, December 23rd). This phenomenon, created by Yale Hirsch, refers to the last five trading days in December, and the first two trading days in the new year. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has closed higher over this seven-day stretch 79.2% of the time for an average gain of +1.33%. Many expect this rally to be a sure thing and then dismiss it when it fails. However, they’re missing the real signal. When the Santa Claus Rally fails, it has often signaled below-average returns the following year. Either way, there will be valuable information to be gleaned from how the S&P 500 performs over the next seven trading days. For more on this topic, check out this note from Ryan.
Quote of the Day
“If Santa Claus should fail to call,
bears may come to Broad & Wall.”
– Yale Hirsh
Top Links
No Worse Year for Sentiment – Bespoke
Bespoke points out that this has been the most consistently bearish year in the history of the AAII Sentiment Survey.
Oooh Baby I Love Your Way – All Star Charts
JC Parets explains that the US Dollar remains the catalyst to watch.
Is it Finally Time for The Santa Claus Rally? ??? – Carson Group
Ryan Detrick lays out everything you need to know about the Santa Claus Rally.
Sea Change – Oaktree Capital
Legendary investor, Howard Marks shares his thoughts on the current market environment.
Top Tweets
Final heat map of the S&P 500's $SPY performance from today pic.twitter.com/fLs34bEWYO
— StockMKTNewz – Evan (@StockMKTNewz) December 22, 2022
'off the lows' pic.twitter.com/1siCSRd0Kd
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) December 22, 2022
NASDAQ Composite angling for a new YTD low just before Santa is supposed to show up. pic.twitter.com/mcSrM6iAl3
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) December 22, 2022
The equity put-call ratio of spiked to a record high yesterday
…and there's a rly interesting reason why ⬇ pic.twitter.com/CwA7MRbIcS
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) December 22, 2022
Rare but not impossible to see negative stock market returns for at least two years in a row … S&P 500 suffered back-to-back declines in a handful of instances, most recently during tech bust@Bloomberg
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/lWbwTa8j48— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) December 22, 2022
3 of the 6 times the Nasdaq has fallen 20%+ in a year, it fell 20%+ the next year. In the 3 years it didn't drop another 20%+ in the next year, it gained at least 29%… pic.twitter.com/T0kFN0g3ma
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) December 22, 2022
ARKK Innovation and Consumer Discretionary stocks are both breaking below big technical price levels.
Weakness continues to get weaker, that's just how trends work.
Bulls are now hoping for a failed move / bear trap. $XLY $ARKK $SPX pic.twitter.com/02jY97eElW— Sam McCallum (@Honeystocks1) December 22, 2022
$AMZN back to COVID lockdown lows ? pic.twitter.com/QjsMhfdukv
— Macro Twain (@macrotwain) December 22, 2022
New 52-week low for Amazon. The stock has been cut in half this year. pic.twitter.com/o3elKbvC1G
— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) December 22, 2022
Quarter-to-date:$TSLA in blue (down 52%)$SPX in yellow (up 6%) pic.twitter.com/lQcotNZim3
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) December 22, 2022
$TSLA market cap drop pic.twitter.com/SxybZQcRoF
— Ayesha Tariq, CFA (@AyeshaTariq) December 22, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!