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Todayβs Summary
Friday, December 22, 2023
Indices: Β Russell 2000 +0.84% | S&P 500 +0.17% | Nasdaq 100 +0.12% | Dow -0.05%Β Β
Sectors: 10 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Consumer Staples led, rising +0.76%. Consumer Discretionary was the only sector that closed lower, falling -0.74%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -0.45% to $73.56 per barrel. Gold futures rose +0.87% to $2,069 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index inched lower by -0.08% to a four-month low of $101.71.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +0.29% to $44,002. Ethereum gained +3.86% to $2,326.
Volatility: The Volatility Index dropped -4.54% to 13.04.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.901%.
Here areΒ the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
30-year yields 'roundtrip' it back to the breakout area at 4%. Looks like we are going to start 2024 in the same spot we started 2023…$TYX $TLT pic.twitter.com/DzxS7LoADw
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) December 22, 2023
Todayβs Chart of the Day was shared by Ian McMillan (@the_chart_life). Yields will likely end flat on the year despite hitting levels not seen since 2007 at one point. After reaching a 16-year high of 5% in October, Ian points out that the 30-year Treasury Yield is retesting the breakout level at 4%. This former resistance level (4%) could act as support in the near term, as it coincides with the uptrend line off the Dec.’22 lows. Stocks could experience some turbulence if yields rebound here. On the other hand, a breakdown would be very positive for risk assets, as it would signal further downside for rates in the new year.
Quote of the Day
βYou can tell a lot about a person by the way they handle three things: a rainy day, lost luggage, and tangled Christmas tree lights.β
βMaya Angelou
Top Links
Will Santa Claus or the Grinch Show Up This Year? – LPL Financial Research
Adam Turnquist examines the Santa Claus Rally, which officially kicked off today.
NASDAQ & Russell 2000 Up 71.4% Of Time Day After Christmas – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch looks at how stocks have historically performed in the days after Christmas.
Overbought Breadth Not Going Away – Bespoke
Bespoke checks on market breadth.
What’s Driving Stock Prices – All Star Charts
JC Parets looks at the relationship between the US Dollar, Stocks, and Bonds.
Stock Market Video Analysis for Week Ending December 22, 2023 – AlphaTrends
Brian Shannon breaks down this week’s price action and lays out some key levels to watch in the near term.
Top Tweets
The S&P 500 extends its win streak to 8 straight weeks of gains $SPY π
Enjoy the long weekend everyone! pic.twitter.com/1mYo4zUT6G
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) December 22, 2023
Put it in the books – that's an 8-week winning streak for the S&P 500. $spx
Here's the precedent (ROC 8 & % close relative to ATH weekly close for additional context only).
6 weeks out we've closed higher 17 times in a row. pic.twitter.com/lwCmRKtdrr
— Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) December 22, 2023
The Santa Clause Rally starts today.
It is 7 total trading days (last 5 of the year and first two of the next year).
Did you know that no other 7-day period is more likely to be higher for stocks?
Up 79.5% of the time. Avg return is 3rd best at 1.32% on avg. pic.twitter.com/4yr5Ae9lW2
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) December 22, 2023
$IWM now leading $SPY $QQQ over the last 3 months pic.twitter.com/2P9BKC3Jhs
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT π (@MikeZaccardi) December 22, 2023
Most important chart in the world right now? pic.twitter.com/gEglHtdaSS
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) December 22, 2023
$IWM – Peek A Boo! pic.twitter.com/OQvWgeV7U9
— Larry Thompson (@HostileCharts) December 22, 2023
Nearly a prefect Doji today. To be expected the for the last day before Xmas. $SPY pic.twitter.com/4ikYsxYRP5
— Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA (@MichaelNaussCMT) December 22, 2023
Our contrarian call for 2024 is in health care. Our SERM model shows excessively negative risk adjusted returns (bad = good) and our ETF flows (below) show excessive outflows on a YoY basis in $XLV. pic.twitter.com/aJkJVYMpnw
— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) December 22, 2023
Total Returns, Last 10 Years…
US Stocks $SPY: +213%
China Stocks $FXI: -21% pic.twitter.com/yDRr73ekPB— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) December 22, 2023
The most important stock in China plunged more than -10%.
That's one of the most remarkable moves ever for an 800-lb gorilla kind of stock.
Picking bottoms in Chinese tech has been nothing but a knee-hammer kind of thing for investors, but Tencent's reaction history is notable.β¦ pic.twitter.com/MpWaIS0kez
— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) December 22, 2023
Some analysts say that Gold cannot go up with current COT profile
Yet, current profile (commercials short, spec longs) very consistent with status as commencement of previous big bull runs $GC_F
Youngsters — please tell me what you are doing so that I do the same πππβοΈπ€£ pic.twitter.com/asKMdoBPnG— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) December 22, 2023
amazing — after all that, 10-year Treasury yields are flat on the year pic.twitter.com/p5wpYAhmYC
— Katie Greifeld π (@kgreifeld) December 22, 2023