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Todayâs Summary
Thursday, December 28, 2023
Indices: Dow +0.14% | S&P 500 +0.04% | Russell 2000 -0.38% | Nasdaq 100 -0.05%
Sectors: 8 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Utilities led, rising +0.71%. Energy lagged, falling -1.52%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures dropped -3.16% to $71.77 per barrel. Gold futures fell -0.46% to $2,084 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.26% to $101.21.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -2.05% to $42,583. Ethereum fell -1.47% to $2,346.
Volatility: The Volatility Index rose +0.48% to 12.48.
Interest Rates:Â The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.844%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Target of inverted H&S in $ARKK is $73, determined by projecting the height of the H&S upward from the right shoulder high pic.twitter.com/kF7Gk0eNll
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) December 28, 2023
Todayâs Chart of the Day was shared by Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt). The Ark Innovation ETF ($ARKK) is reaching 20-month highs this week after clearing resistance around $51. $ARKK has been on a roller coaster in recent years. It surged +350% off the Covid lows but gave it all back after peaking in Feb. 2021. Itâs still down -65% from its peak but has carved out a potential bottom over the past year. Peter points out that $ARKK is breaking out of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. It cracked the neckline ($51) last week and continued higher this week. The measured move price target of $73 is roughly +35% higher from todayâs close.
Quote of the Day
âAllied to the general pattern of market movements is the general pattern of speculative thinking.â
âBenjamin Graham
Top Links
Santa Is Rallying – Trading Adventures
Andy Moss recaps this week’s price action.
Top Charts of 2023 – Carson Group
Ryan Detrick highlights a few noteworthy charts from 2023.
Top-Heavy Doesn’t Mean Market Top – LPL Financial Research
Adam Turnquist examines this year’s narrow leadership in the S&P 500.
A Likely Landing Pad for Interest Rates – All Star Charts
Ian Culley identifies some potential support levels for Treasury yields.
Top Tweets
As to be expected, volume has fallen off a cliff as we move into year-end. pic.twitter.com/mnARR2dvYj
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) December 28, 2023
It's not thrilling, but this is about what the average "Santa Claus Rally" looks like so far.$DJIA working on another low-volatility up day in slow holiday trade. pic.twitter.com/pVxBQiVUIh
— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) December 28, 2023
The Nasdaq 100, currently +54.5%, is on track for its strongest year of performance in more than two decades. pic.twitter.com/BaWwtRhdOh
— Koyfin (@KoyfinCharts) December 28, 2023
The 60-40 portfolio has bounced back this year
It's on track to return ~17% this year, the best showing since 2019– Dow Jones Market Datahttps://t.co/YGxkj3vqoq pic.twitter.com/pHN42wfO6B
— Gunjan Banerji (@GunjanJS) December 28, 2023
Want to upset your favorite đ»?
Tell them that when the S&P 500 gains >10% in Nov and December (like '23 will), the returns the following year get even đȘ.
Q1 and the following year returns have never been lower.
In fact, following yr up close to 20% on avg. pic.twitter.com/pRo9OfCSWw
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) December 28, 2023
Among the seven most cyclical sectors, five now trade above their 50-day relative strength averages. Only Energy and Communication Services trade below their averages. Readings of five or greater have been consistent with above average returns for the S&P 500. pic.twitter.com/agmLpIdmuc
— Rob Anderson (@_rob_anderson) December 28, 2023
four ARK funds…
one isn't (quite) like the rest…$ARKK $ARKQ $ARKW $ARKF pic.twitter.com/Kz18FYImSp
— David Cox, CMT, CFA (@DavidCoxRJ) December 28, 2023
Active managers in the NAAIM survey are now leveraged long equities.
Knee-jerk contrarians want to sell.
A simple test of buying the S&P when they go leveraged long and exiting at either a 5% gain or 5% loss led to 12 gains, 3 losses.
đ€·ââïž pic.twitter.com/K0sMdjKiUD
— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) December 28, 2023
Dollar a bit of a bullish reversal today $UUP pic.twitter.com/WcyKi0w9SR
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT đ (@MikeZaccardi) December 28, 2023
Which big boy firm will get it right in 2024?$SPY $SPX #stocks pic.twitter.com/hLxoaqZeCk
— Grant Hawkridge (@granthawkridge) December 28, 2023