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Today’s Summary
Thursday, December 29th, 2022
Indices: Russell 2000 +2.57% | Nasdaq 100 +2.54% | S&P 500 +1.75% | Dow +1.05%
Sectors: All 11 Sectors closed higher. Communications led, gaining +2.76%. Consumer Staples lagged but still rose +0.43%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -0.71% to $78.40 per barrel. Gold futures rose +0.56% to $1,826 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell -0.47% to $103.97.
Crypto: Bitcoin gained +0.51% to $16,624. Ethereum rose +0.71% to $1,198.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.818%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
20. Holding Out for a Hero:
Despite terrible investor sentiment, individual investors were slow to reduce holdings in equities. Allocations to equities are off of the highs (down from 70% to 62% ) but remain well above prior major bear market lows (45-50% in 2001 and 2009). pic.twitter.com/hemoKeB14e— Cameron Dawson (@CameronDawson) December 29, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Cameron Dawson (@CameronDawson). The chart emphasizes the disparity between how investors feel, and how they’re actually positioned. The blue line represents the bull-bear spread from the AAII Sentiment Survey. This was the most bearish year in the history of the AAII Sentiment Survey, with the bull-bear spread spending a record 39 consecutive weeks in negative territory. Extremely bearish sentiment should be bullish, however, AAII Sentiment failed to act as a contrarian indicator this year. While investors might say they’re bearish, they hardly reduced their exposure to stocks this year. As Cameron points out, equity exposure fell from 70% to 62%, which is still elevated within its historical range and well above levels where previous bear markets have bottomed. Watch what they do, not what they say.
Quote of the Day
“Part of being a contrarian is knowing when to go with the consensus.”
– Arun Chopra
Top Links
22 Charts for 2022: A Year in Review – New Edge Wealth
Cameron Dawson highlights 22 charts that sum up 2022.
Halfway Through This Year Santa Claus Rally – All Star Charts
JC Parets checks in on the Santa Claus Rally at its halfway mark.
Grinch Visits Wall Street on Last Trading Day of Year – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch points out that the final trading day of the year (tomorrow) has historically been bearish.
What Happens When Everyone Agrees That Stocks Will Fall? – Carson Group
Ryan Detrick explains why the first half of 2023 could be better than the crowd expects.
Breaking Down the Markets (with Jay Woods, Chief Market Strategist at DriveWealth) – MoneyNet
In this quick video, Jay Woods shares his perspective on the end-of-year price action.
Top Tweets
Santa Claus Rally (SCR)
Day 1: +0.59%
Day 2: -0.40%
Day 3: -1.21%
Day 4: +1.75%
——————-
Cumulative: +0.73%— David Zarling, CMT (@AdaptivCharts) December 29, 2022
Final heat map of the S&P 500's $SPY performance from today pic.twitter.com/4tDgiqJcRW
— StockMKTNewz – Evan (@StockMKTNewz) December 29, 2022
The heatmap of performance for S&P 500 stocks YTD pic.twitter.com/qr9jJzLRdC
— Commonstock (@JoinCommonstock) December 29, 2022
#NQ_F, 1d
End of 2021 — big resistance
End of 2022 – big support pic.twitter.com/nJM8OGKqRS— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) December 29, 2022
#sp500 The simple things in life are sometimes the best. Trendlines are for cheaters. #trendlines. How can you be bullish until we settle above this line for more than a day? Asking for a friend.. pic.twitter.com/SkHzYucBpg
— Chris Robinson (@cer_hedge) December 29, 2022
While stocks were broadly higher today, the worst-performing decile of stocks through December 23 in the Russell 1,000 were up over 5% today.
Read more in tonight's Closer: https://t.co/9t3dCB8RUM pic.twitter.com/1T6glMb5fr
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) December 29, 2022
The second year of a new President is historically bad for stocks. That sure played out in 2022.
The good news is the third year things bounce back in a big way. pic.twitter.com/CgYs3LSYnW
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) December 29, 2022
Interesting charts in the Medical Devices space. Especially $BSX coming out of an 18-year base. $BDX $HOLX $PODD $IHI pic.twitter.com/0NP7kkCuSD
— Brian G (@alphacharts) December 29, 2022
Upside momentum thrusts are great, but only if they're followed by sustained upside momentum.
It's time for Energy bulls to step up to the line. $XLE pic.twitter.com/KvmRxLbSAL
— Ian Culley (@IanCulley) December 29, 2022
2022 is the worst year ever for stocks and bonds since 1871 pic.twitter.com/Vjxjg82ymN
— Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) December 29, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!